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Thread: Ryan Braun fails drug test

  1. #151
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    False positive rates on those tests are significantly lower than your assumptions. Test with that high of a failure rate would never be used at a professional level, since as your logic proves, they would provide way too many cases of innocent people indicted.

    I don't know that rates for these tests, but I get tested on a regular basis for certain health issues, and I was warned that these tests, which are similar to the first test, have an error rate of around 1.25%, which, given the frequency of my test, actually is still significant.

    So when elevated levels are detected, just like with the drug tests, my doctors do a second round of testing in the same sample, with a different, much more expensive method, just to be sure. That second method, they say, is almost never in error. I was never given a number, but I assume it's a fraction of the 1.25% error rate of th first test.

    I have no idea if this is the same numbers with drug testing, but I would think if it was like you said, no union would ever allow it, and no court would ever uphold it's findings.
    With the first test, I would note that the 4:1 ratio required to "fail" the test is actually in the "normal" range and not necessarily a sign of having cheated. It merely serves as a filter to limit those who take the more complex/expensive test to whose who are more likely to have been cheating. So you wouldn't even need to have a false positive on the first test -- merely a correct positive that happens to be a natural condition.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #152
    Member wlf WV's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    With the first test, I would note that the 4:1 ratio required to "fail" the test is actually in the "normal" range and not necessarily a sign of having cheated. It merely serves as a filter to limit those who take the more complex/expensive test to whose who are more likely to have been cheating. So you wouldn't even need to have a false positive on the first test -- merely a correct positive that happens to be a natural condition.
    Exactly,but as I understand,it was a trigger for the 2nd test that showed proved artificial testosterone as the source..?

  4. #153
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    Exactly,but as I understand,it was a trigger for the 2nd test that showed proved artificial testosterone as the source..?
    The first test just analyzes the T/E (testosterone/epitestosterone) ratio. Normal is around 1:1, but you could potentially have a naturally occurring ration of up to 10:1. Under the old testing guidelines, anything 6:1 or greater triggered a second test. Now, 4:1 triggers a second test.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  5. #154
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    When was that argued? And how isn't one occurring?
    All of your comments in this thread have been an attempt to stifle discussion because no official statements have been made. I was just wondering why you seemed to not want anything discussed based on what is known.
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  6. #155
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    All of your comments in this thread have been an attempt to stifle discussion because no official statements have been made. I was just wondering why you seemed to not want anything discussed based on what is known.
    No they haven't. Please use he PM function if you feel the need for further clarification or comment on my motivations.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #156
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    Exactly,but as I understand,it was a trigger for the 2nd test that showed proved artificial testosterone as the source..?
    I wasn't commenting specifically on the likelihood for Braun, just overall. Obviously we have more information in his case, though clearly not all of it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #157
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    The LA Times says that, were Brauns drug charges uphld prior to voting on the MVP Matt Kemp would win in a landslide.

    Braun received 20 first-place votes to Kemp's 10 in the original balloting, but eight of the reporters who voted for Braun said that Kemp would get their first-place votes if they could do it again.

    Voters list 10 players on their ballots. Of the eight that said they would switch to Kemp, seven said they would drop Braun from their list entirely and the other said he would consider doing the same.

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...,2301712.story
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  9. #158
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    The LA Times says that, were Brauns drug charges uphld prior to voting on the MVP Matt Kemp would win in a landslide.

    Braun received 20 first-place votes to Kemp's 10 in the original balloting, but eight of the reporters who voted for Braun said that Kemp would get their first-place votes if they could do it again.

    Voters list 10 players on their ballots. Of the eight that said they would switch to Kemp, seven said they would drop Braun from their list entirely and the other said he would consider doing the same.

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...,2301712.story
    So technically, Kemp is the MVP, but actually it's Braun?
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  10. #159
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #160
    SERP deep cover ops WebScorpion's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    If a player is on a prescription medication which could cause a positive test, he's required to submit a form for a waiver. So even if he has a prescription he's still in violation of the MLB substance abuse policy and will get the 50 game suspension. I doubt he'll win his appeal.

    "Okay you guys, pair up in threes!" --Yogi Berra

  12. #161
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    If a player is on a prescription medication which could cause a positive test, he's required to submit a form for a waiver. So even if he has a prescription he's still in violation of the MLB substance abuse policy and will get the 50 game suspension. I doubt he'll win his appeal.
    That is correct. No waiver. No dice.

    While we are waiting on the facts to all come in (Hello Braun's camp...ever hear of public relations/perception....might want to throw us a bone), I have yet to personally take Braun to task. However, I am operating under the assumption he will have a seat for 50 games.

  13. #162
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Braun took some of Edinson's Volquez' fertility pills.
    Or Extenze.
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  14. #163
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Braun took some of Edinson's Volquez' fertility pills.
    Or Extenze.
    According to the comments on the article at tmz.com, it does have something to do with that region. I'll let the research be up to you.

  15. #164
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    According to the comments on the article at tmz.com, it does have something to do with that region. I'll let the research be up to you.
    Can we call him "Smilin' Ryan" now?
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  16. #165
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    I had a friend in Wisconsin post on FB last week that the rumor up there in those parts was he was being treated for an STD. I laughed it off as nonsense, but who knows. Maybe that's why he didn't submit the waiver form.
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