He makes the longer, tough passes and misses the shorter, easier ones. Guess what he will look like once the short passes start connecting. Give him an off season to work with the coaches and fine tune and the Broncos will have a pro-bowler next year.
We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells
Newsflash!
Joey Votto does not care about RBI.
NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US
Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp
The thing that has bothered me the most with the coverage of Tebow is how its clearly pointed to the fact that NFL fans need to take a serious leap into new statistics. Completion percentage has to be right up there for most overrated stats in sports. It tells you almost nothing about how successful someone was. The object of the game is to score points. Not complete passes at a 70% clip. The key stat should be is average yards gained per pass play called. If a quarterback scrambles for yardage on a pass play that helps the team as much as a completed pass because defense has to account for when the opponent drops back. 1-3 for 45 yards is going to be better than 2-3 for 18 yards.
Also I do not understand why Tebow does not get the benefit of doubt that he will improve like any other young quarterback in the league. Thru first 16 starts;
Tebow
Passing 2,700 yards 19 TD 9 INT Rushing 937 Yards 13 TD
Elway
Passing 2,405 yards 10 TD 20 INT Rushing 230 Yards 1 TD
Now why in the world would anyone looking at that write Tebow off as never going to be good enough? If anything he should improve more than anyone if his mechanics are so flawed. Its not just Elway either most young quarterbacks have horrific starts to career but settle down and improve. Even Tom Brady was a game manager to start career. Oh and if you do want to look at completion percentage Elways was below 50% in these starts as well.
A. Youre 100% right that comp% is a pretty useless statistic and there are tons of other more relevant ones like DYAR, DVOA, YPA, NY/A, ANY/A
B. Its also just as silly to compare Elways raw stats from his era to Tebows raw stats in his era with different passing rules in place that favor the offense
C. There is a stat similar to the one you ask for that accounts for yards per drop back is Known as NY/A, but it doesnt count his positive yardage scrambles, so its not exactly the same thing.
NY/A = Passing Yards- Sack Yards
-------------------------------
Passes Attempted+Times Sacked
TEbow was 33rd/34 NFL QBs in NY/A at 4.9
He's 28th/34 with a 4.8 in ANY/A which is almost the same as ny/a but is weighted for bonuses and penalties for pass TDs/ints.
ESPNs total QBR does track every drop back (including scrambles for positive yards and assigns + points in his favor accordingly as related to Expected Points Added) and as much flack as the new stat has gotten its still one of the better metrics. Tebow was 32nd/ 34 QBs in this statistic during the regular season. However, his rating in the steelers game was off the charts good, which I dont think would surprise anyone. That was by far his best game and he posted an almost perfect rating in the Steelers game, but it was virtually out of nowhere.
By every single measure out there, overall, he's been atrocious. I cant explain it. His team winning makes no sense. Vegas oddsmakers think hes terrible as well. Theyre 13.5 pt dogs at NE right now, and I wont be surprised if that rises during the week. Yet, now theyve won another game in absurd fashion. Maybe its just ridiculous run good variance. Maybe theres something he brings that we havent found a way to quantify (not the leadership, but how much his running threat helps their run game for instance) accurately. Im not sure what it is, but no matter what its extremely fun to watch and I'm completely entertained by not being able to explain it.
Last edited by ervinsm84; 01-09-2012 at 04:49 AM.
Newsflash!
Joey Votto does not care about RBI.
NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US
He's not a NFL QB? He had his highs and lows this season no doubt. So go ahead and tear him apart statistically. But regardless of the fact he's TIM TEBOW (insert echo effect), he was still A ROOKIE for cryin' out loud. Does that account for anything? I'm impressed with what the kid was able to accomplish this year, and IMO I think he'll get better.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Thanks for some of the stat info. I dont see it ever being accepted widely in football as baseball. I guess it really should just be broken down to its simplest form. You say hes been atrocious by every measure. Except in the wins his TD to turnover ratio has been excellent. In the losses horrible. In the NFL if you put the ball in the endzone and dont turn it over you have a great chance to win. Just look at the Texans Bengals game. Yes Dalton is probably the better quarterback but Yates didnt make the mistakes.
I agree with you on the different eras. My point was not to make it out that Tebow was better at this stage than Elway was, as comparing different eras stats is difficult. More to say that Elway got drastically better like many other qbs in year 3 or 4 compared to their first 16 games starting. No real concrete reason that Tebow wouldnt improve as well. The level of qb play in this league is not real great after the first 10 or so, not sure why so many have already determined he cant be a viable starter in a league of 32 teams. People get so locked in on technique in football. Imagine if it was that way in baseball with all the crazy batting stances and pitching motions people have haha
Tebow's not a rookie.
I think Tebow can get better. I also think he'll have to, since next year's opponents have an entire offseason to prepare for the unique challenges he presents. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty obvious at this point so a lot of it will come down to matchups.
He did make a couple of throws yesterday he wouldn't have risked a few weeks ago, e.g. the TD pass to Royal. Maybe that "pull the trigger" speech helped. In the NFL, a QB that has to wait until the receiver is wide open to throw it is going to be waiting a lot. Although there were some wide open guys running through the Pittsburgh secondary yesterday. Not sure what that was about...
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
He's become must see TV. Like when Tiger does something special on Sunday at a major you get those random texts asking if you're watching...from people that aren't even golf fans. My mom (who knows nothing about football really) calls me yesterday to ask if I just saw what Tebow did. It's really crazy the buzz this guy creates. Love him, hate him, or somewhere in between, most people are watching.
How would you like to be Demarius Thomas today? He is the real hero of that win and no one is talking about him. That "play" was made by him.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
He definitely had a great game, but the reason Pittsburgh was playing true man with no safety deep is because of Tebow's ability to run the read option. If any other QB in the NFL is taking that snap it's a 20 yard gain.
It is crazy how Pittsburgh didn't allow a 100 yard receiver all year and Thomas went for 200. Ike Taylor was totally overmatched.
The only thing funnier than the Tebow lovers are the Tebow haters.
He did make a RAC but Tebow hit him in stride making that possible
Yates also had the offensive line, running game and defense that Dalton didn't.
Funny thing is at NE, Tebow will have the superior running game, defense and special teams yet he's still a 2 TD dog
It's absolutely not useless. There might be better stats out there, but it's not useless. On 51% of the times he passes the ball, it's a wasted down. If you think that's useless, I'd rather you not coach my favorite teams lol
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
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