Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

  1. #1
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,717

    New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    This beating of head upon wall trying to obtain a:

    1) #1 or #2 starter that is
    2) Young, and that is
    3) Cost controlled, that is
    4) 3+ years away from FA...

    is apparently quite a tall order. Understandably so.

    Looking at the acquisition of a few TRUE aces over the last few years, they were had for, generally, a top 50, a top 100, a high upside guy, at least one great arm, usually 2.

    If you could have one of:

    Cliff Lee
    Roy Halladay
    Johan Santana

    These players are true, true forces of gravity. The division will take notice upon their arrival.

    Wouldn't that be preferable to Gio, Jurrens & Shields in 2012?

    Well, I encourage you to observe what those players cost their receiving teams. The problem for the Reds is that their prospect arms are not in the top 50. In almost any deal for an ace, the dealing team MUST get a true pitching prospect (unless their filthy rich in arms and need bats - Rays!?!?!). Would you be happy with less than a top 50 pitching prospect for Cueto? No.

    That said, I think the Reds can get what they need, for 2012 at least, for what they'd be willing to do without in the short term (Alonso, Grandal, etc, etc, you know the players). No, it's not a long term thing, but signing that player to an extension may be possible as well.

    To me, Matt Cain is a guy that I'd like to target, but it seems SF would love to keep him.

    Other #1/#2 2013 FA's

    Matt Cain (28)
    John Danks (28)
    Ryan Dempster (36)
    Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
    Zack Greinke (28)
    Cole Hamels (29)
    Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
    Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
    Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Carlos Zambrano (32) - $19.25MM player option depending on Zambrano's Cy Young voting placement

    OK, I watered it down a bit. But to me, this crop would be easier to begin prying from their teams. Payroll is a huge consideration, but paying more in prospects would lead to cash coming our way. For example, I wonder if we could get Zambrano for, like, Frazier and Corcino, with them kicking in 10 million just to be rid of the headache. I know all the trouble Z brings, but he knows Dusty yada yada and my point is only to show that an upgrade to the rotation is actually much easier in this buy low effort. Walt is a buy low guy. Edmonds, Carpenter, Macgwire. Peavy is another fit.

    If Walt is loathe to spend his prospect chips, then he needs to lower his sights and take on other forms of risk. The market is the market.
    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
    Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
    AUGUST 20, 7:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium
    MORTAL COMBAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,717

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    The market is the market and 2012 is 2012, MUST WIN!
    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
    Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
    AUGUST 20, 7:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium
    MORTAL COMBAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. #3
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,747

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    I'd be trying to get Z right now with a couple prospects and a chunk of salary coming our way. I'd risk the headache with Dusty handling him if the Cubs are serious about wanting him gone and are willing to pay a big enough chunk. Epstein says he wants prospects. The Reds got 'em.

  5. #4
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    It would have to be a sweet deal. Something expendable like Chris Valaika and Jordan Smith for Zambrano and $15 Million. Not sure there are many bullets left in his gun and even if the Cubs cover all the money, I wouldn't give up a top trade chip unless its somebody I'm confident will actually fix the rotation. The Reds have question marks in spades. Adding another who might be a bad apple doesn't seem like a fix. Even if you could get him on a favorable deal, I'd still be looking to add some one with more certainty.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #5
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Cain
    Danks
    Floyd

    In that order is who I'd try to obtain.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  7. #6
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,717

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Kenny Williams has said he wants an Ubaldo type return for one of Danks or Floyd. Prior to Ubaldo's trade, in the early going, the Rox said they wanted a Hershal Walker type deal. They certainly didn't get that, but they did get two top 50 or 100 arms. I feel like Danks or Floyd would definitely cost Corcino.

    My list refine from above would be:

    Floyd
    Dempster
    Cain

    Everyone else is on a "win now" team, with the exception of Cain. But SF's historically bad offense could use an upgrade and I think we could help them if we included one of our #4/#5 starters in the deal. Volquez and Heisey and ?

    But if I was Walt I'd shift my attention to Chicago's north and south side.
    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
    Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
    AUGUST 20, 7:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium
    MORTAL COMBAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,837

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    I like the idea of trying to buy low on Peavy. He was one of the best pitchers in the game two years ago. Hopefully he could have a Pete Harnisch-like resurgence.

    Dan Haren might be interesting on a shorter term (2 or at most 3 year deal) if the Angels run out of money after this offseason.

    I'd also be interested in kicking the tires on Cole Hamels, assuming the Phillies can't afford to pay 3 pitchers $60MM+. Unfortunately though, that's probably a pipedream.

    I think Cain will re-sign with the Jints, and Greinke will be unaffordable (likely as will Hamels).
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-16-2011 at 10:47 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,837

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I'd be trying to get Z right now with a couple prospects and a chunk of salary coming our way. I'd risk the headache with Dusty handling him if the Cubs are serious about wanting him gone and are willing to pay a big enough chunk. Epstein says he wants prospects. The Reds got 'em.
    If we're going to trade prospects for a Cubs starting pitcher, it better be Garza.

    Zambrano is going to Miami if he goes anywhere IMO, and that's just fine by me. The guy destroys the clubhouse, both literally and figuratively.
    Go BLUE!!!

  10. #9
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,717

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Yeah, Zambrano wouldn't like Cincinnati, either. He'd blame his poor outings on GABP. I'm scratching Z off the list, but Dempster on the other hand, I think, would be a decent pick up. His FIP and xFIP is pretty consistently in the mid 3's. Give him the Reds defense and I think he'd be great.
    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
    Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
    AUGUST 20, 7:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium
    MORTAL COMBAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    3,795

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Yeah, Zambrano wouldn't like Cincinnati, either. He'd blame his poor outings on GABP. I'm scratching Z off the list, but Dempster on the other hand, I think, would be a decent pick up. His FIP and xFIP is pretty consistently in the mid 3's. Give him the Reds defense and I think he'd be great.
    The irony is that we HAD Dempster at one time and let him go.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  12. #11
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Wonder what type of haul the Halos would want for Haren.. He'd be a good fit as he was a Reds target a few years back when in Oakland. I'd include Hamilton in a deal for a Haren.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  13. #12
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    I think the Reds need to sign a free agent quality starting pitcher, like Oswalt. Not only does it fill a need, but it sends a message to potential trading partners that we're not messing around.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,837

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    Wonder what type of haul the Halos would want for Haren.. He'd be a good fit as he was a Reds target a few years back when in Oakland. I'd include Hamilton in a deal for a Haren.
    Angels aren't trading Haren. They're in all-in mode right now after the big signings. If we/anyone have any chance of acquiring Haren, it will be as a FA next offseason if, as I said, the Angels ever run out of money.
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #14
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    7,953

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    This beating of head upon wall trying to obtain a:

    1) #1 or #2 starter that is
    2) Young, and that is
    3) Cost controlled, that is
    4) 3+ years away from FA...

    is apparently quite a tall order. Understandably so.

    Looking at the acquisition of a few TRUE aces over the last few years, they were had for, generally, a top 50, a top 100, a high upside guy, at least one great arm, usually 2.

    If you could have one of:

    Cliff Lee
    Roy Halladay
    Johan Santana

    These players are true, true forces of gravity. The division will take notice upon their arrival.

    Wouldn't that be preferable to Gio, Jurrens & Shields in 2012?

    Well, I encourage you to observe what those players cost their receiving teams. The problem for the Reds is that their prospect arms are not in the top 50. In almost any deal for an ace, the dealing team MUST get a true pitching prospect (unless their filthy rich in arms and need bats - Rays!?!?!). Would you be happy with less than a top 50 pitching prospect for Cueto? No.

    That said, I think the Reds can get what they need, for 2012 at least, for what they'd be willing to do without in the short term (Alonso, Grandal, etc, etc, you know the players). No, it's not a long term thing, but signing that player to an extension may be possible as well.

    To me, Matt Cain is a guy that I'd like to target, but it seems SF would love to keep him.

    Other #1/#2 2013 FA's

    Matt Cain (28)
    John Danks (28)
    Ryan Dempster (36)
    Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
    Zack Greinke (28)
    Cole Hamels (29)
    Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
    Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
    Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Carlos Zambrano (32) - $19.25MM player option depending on Zambrano's Cy Young voting placement

    OK, I watered it down a bit. But to me, this crop would be easier to begin prying from their teams. Payroll is a huge consideration, but paying more in prospects would lead to cash coming our way. For example, I wonder if we could get Zambrano for, like, Frazier and Corcino, with them kicking in 10 million just to be rid of the headache. I know all the trouble Z brings, but he knows Dusty yada yada and my point is only to show that an upgrade to the rotation is actually much easier in this buy low effort. Walt is a buy low guy. Edmonds, Carpenter, Macgwire. Peavy is another fit.

    If Walt is loathe to spend his prospect chips, then he needs to lower his sights and take on other forms of risk. The market is the market.
    I may be the biggest Matt Cain fan on this board. He has tended to fly under the radar for most of his career, but should he hit FA, his name will be in lights the premier starting pitcher available (no offense to Cole Hamels), if his agent is doing his job. I like your thought but he's gonna be a 15-20 million a year guy easily.

    Edit - I see you are just talking about getting him as a rental for this year...sure if the price is right midseason.

  16. #15
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I think the Reds need to sign a free agent quality starting pitcher, like Oswalt. Not only does it fill a need, but it sends a message to potential trading partners that we're not messing around.
    But to get a higher profile pitcher the Reds will no doubt have to overpay for him. Oswalt & Saunders are about the only ones I could project as a #1-#2...mostly #2. Saunders had a solid ERA but also allowed 29 Homers.. He does however go the distance; logging 212 innings. Oswalt is a name the Reds fans know all to well. He had some injuries in 2011 that may hinder him but he is that big name that could put butts in seats.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25