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  1. #1
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    Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    In case you haven't heard, the Reds improved their starting pitching by acquiring Mat Latos. What's the impact?

    At a very basic level, I think this is around a 4-win move for the Reds. This is the sum of Latos' addition and Volquez' subtraction. He instantly becomes the best strikeout pitcher and one of the best at keeping the ball in the park. He a little bit better than league average in walks but the 2010 Reds starters with 100 IP were also better than average.

    I think he ends up complimenting the existing staff nicely. We would still benefit from adding another good starting pitcher and replacing Arroyo's dreadful 2011 with at least league average (note, this could come from Arroyo simply being better.)

    How do you think Latos will impact the 2012 starting pitching?

    As a visual, here's how Latos compares to Cueto and Leake:







    And how he compares to Bailey and Arroyo:






  2. #2
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.
    Right, that's the best "net" the Reds could have hoped for. However, the second best "net" was replacing EV.

    A league average Arroyo is even more of a boost, yes.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Add more innings from Cueto, Bailey and Leake replacing Wood and the soft underbelly of the bullpen (and keeping the pen fresher and avoiding a mid-June collapse) and this staff looks to be a lot better.

    It won't all work out, but this staff should be much improved. One less question mark should have a domino effect on all the others.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.
    Add a healthy Bailey that really showed some great stuff that moves Mike Leake to the #5 starter and instantly 1 started makes this rotation very interesting. Not to mention Chapman, but not sure how he becomes a starter this year and not being shut down by the AS break.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    I think Arroyo improves simply because he's going to be the "fifth starter." He should be healthier, add back that lost mph or two he lost last season as a result of his mono, and log innings.

    Bill James' projections says he'll go 4.00 ERA with a 4.68 FIP. If that happens, the Reds will win 100 games.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I think Arroyo improves simply because he's going to be the "fifth starter." He should be healthier, add back that lost mph or two he lost last season as a result of his mono, and log innings.

    Bill James' projections says he'll go 4.00 ERA with a 4.68 FIP. If that happens, the Reds will win 100 games.
    I wouldn't slot Arroyo 5th. I would actually slot him 2nd. He is the guy who can give you innings and starts. The Reds do need that, especially going with the likes of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Wood, or Chapman who haven't shown the ability to throw over 200 innings.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

    211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

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    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

    211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P
    I'm salivating.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

    211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P
    I think we could deal with that!
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

    211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P
    James projects Volquez to have a FIP of 4.22. Over 200 IP, that would suggest Latos was a 2.5 WAR upgrade.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

    211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P
    Ha! I almost want to make that my signature, if not for the jinx implications.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Member RollyInRaleigh's Avatar
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    I still like Travis Wood. I hope he can put it together and give the Reds a quality lefty in the rotation. He had some moments of brilliance.

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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    I still like Travis Wood. I hope he can put it together and give the Reds a quality lefty in the rotation. He had some moments of brilliance.
    I agree. I still think Wood will settle in nicely as a #3 starter in the big leagues.

  15. #15
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Latos' impact on the Reds SP

    I guess there's always the chance that BA could just be toast, but I think it's more likely that he reverts back to his 2009-10 form. Its very tough to perform when trying to recover from a mono-like illness that saps your strength reserves without time off & rest. Bronson IMO, should have been shutdown and put on a program to regain his strength - if not coming out of Spring Training, then some time in May or June.

    I will be interested to see what an offseason of rest will do for him. I would deal Arroyo right now for the payflex, but if he comes out and performs as he did in 2009-10, he will certainly be worht having around - especially as the number four starter.

    - The more time passes since the Latos deal, the more I like it. I think he is just what this rotation needed.

    - Cueto may not have K'd as many batters per 9 as in previous years, but I saw a lot of maturity from him last year. I've got a feeling that he is just now reaching his prime.

    - the thing I like most about Mike Leake is his head for the game. He doesn't have to rely on the speed of his fastball and has a very solid idea of what he needs to do to be successful for a kid so young with little MiL experience.

    - There are a lot of teams out there right now with far worse options than Homer Bailey and Travis Wood for their 5th spot in the rotation. I've always been a big fan of Homer's and I'm hoping this is the year he stays healthy and puts it all together. if he does, he can challenge Leake and posible even Cueto as the second or third best starter in the rotation.

    - Wood is nice to have as a lefty option, but he needs consistencey. He can look almost dominant at times and then go three of four outings where he looks putrid. If it would fill a hole elsewhere with a piece I really liked though, I would consider dangling either travis or Homer in a deal.

    - I kind of expect to see 2012 as a wasted year for Aroldis Chapmanif they convert him to a starter. With no starts in winter ball, they will need to start stretching him out in spring training and then probably 8-10 starts in Louisville. By the time I think he may be ready for the Reds rotation, it may be almost time to shut him down due to innings worked. I'm not sure that he will be automatically successful in his conversion to starter and it is more than just a matter of stretching out his arm.

    Chapman started before at Louisville with mixed results. You have to think that prolonged starting will draw down the top speed on AC's heater, but just how much remains to be seen. I also wonder how returning to the starting rotation will affect Chapman's control (one of the factors he had an issues with the first go round a starter.

    I've seen that even if Aroldis reaches just one-third of his potential, that he Latos and Cueto would make for a dominant 1-2-3 in the rotation. That may or may not be true, but I will say that I am highly doubt it will come to be true at any point in 2012 for any significant stretch of the season. Chapman has the portential to become a TOR starter in time, but I don't see it happening until 2013 atthe earliest.

    I love Aroldis and I am not trying to bring him down - just trying to be realistic. If I'm Walt though and I'm trying to go all-in to capitalize on having Joey Votto for two more years. I have to consider leaving Chapman in the bull pen where I'm retty sure he can dominate or I consider packaging him in a deal for maybe a closer and an outfielder (or even another starter) that I really like.

    As far as rotational depth goes, I look at some of the second or even third-tier FA starters that are out there and try to sign a couple for spots in the Louisville rotation just in case. It was nice to have Dontrelle down there last year and I wish he was there this year (or in the Reds pen).


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