Latos' impact on the Reds SP

[traderumor]

Latos is a 4 win upgrade only if you think his true talent level is 4 wins better than Volquez. Last season, Volquez was essentially replacement level.

I think it's reasonable that Volquez could be a true talent 4.3 FIP guy over 180 innings arm (i.e. like a poor man's Jhoulys Chacin circa 2011). That's roughly a 2 win pitcher. For Latos to be 4 wins better than that, he's got to be a true talent 2.60 FIP arm over like 220 innings.

I'm very positive about the trade but I'm not sure his addition is as big of an impact as intuition suggests. Obviously alot of the calculus depends upon Volquez and estimating his true skill level at this point is a bit like reading chicken intestines. I'm pretty confident we know what we're getting with Latos barring injury issues (a 4 win pitcher). For comparison, Cueto was a 2.8 win pitcher last season and the next best pitcher in the rotation only posted a 1.5 WAR season (Leake/Bailey).

I would say that there is an equal probability that Volquez will not be in the Padres rotation the entire year for lack of performance.

[jojo]

Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

James projects Volquez to have a FIP of 4.22. Over 200 IP, that would suggest Latos was a 2.5 WAR upgrade.

[Benihana]

Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

Ha! I almost want to make that my signature, if not for the jinx implications.

[WVRedsFan]

What upgrades by getting Latos is the bullpen -- Latos averages over six innings a start -- they guy WJ dumped in SD, Volquez did not average anywhere near that -- plus in many of his starts. So the longer starts equals less innings for the bullpen. Additionally, many of Volquez's starts had the bullpen up and warming in the early innings. This also added to bullpen wear and tear in 2011.

We have a winner!

Last year, we wore out the bullpen by the AS break, mainly because EV couldn't throw strikes and came out early in the game as well as others. The addition of Latos in the rotation in his place negates that overworked bullpen. I also look for the rest of the starters to go longer this year because of experience. Arroyo should have have a horrid year like last year, but if he does, Wood is waiting in the wings. The only problem I see is Dusty and his love for veterans, meaning that he will go too long with Arroyo if his problems don't improve.

[WVRedsFan]

I would say that there is an equal probability that Volquez will not be in the Padres rotation the entire year for lack of performance.

Yep.

[MikeS21]

Latos is a 4 win upgrade only if you think his true talent level is 4 wins better than Volquez. Last season, Volquez was essentially replacement level.

I think it's reasonable that Volquez could be a true talent 4.3 FIP guy over 180 innings arm (i.e. like a poor man's Jhoulys Chacin circa 2011). That's roughly a 2 win pitcher. For Latos to be 4 wins better than that, he's got to be a true talent 2.60 FIP arm over like 220 innings.

I'm very positive about the trade but I'm not sure his addition is as big of an impact as intuition suggests. Obviously alot of the calculus depends upon Volquez and estimating his true skill level at this point is a bit like reading chicken intestines. I'm pretty confident we know what we're getting with Latos barring injury issues (a 4 win pitcher). For comparison, Cueto was a 2.8 win pitcher last season and the next best pitcher in the rotation only posted a 1.5 WAR season (Leake/Bailey).

I gotta agree. If you look strictly at runs given up, the 2011 pitching staff (which is believed to be horrible) had 20 losses where the entire staff (rotation and bullpen) gave up only three runs or less (35 losses in games where staff gave up four runs or less.

Here's the thing. Go back to the 2010 playoffs versus the Phillies. Everyone agrees that the Reds were terrible in that series. For some reason, the only lesson taken away from that series was that the Reds need a TOR hammer. Huh? That's what we learned in that series?

Look closer. It wasn't the pitching that was bad. It was the offense and the terrible defense. In Games 2 and 3, the starters (Arroyo and Cueto) for the Reds only gave up one earned run each. And in Game 1, the starter (Volquez) gave up four earned runs, but lets be honest, it wouldn't have mattered if Volquez gave up only one run or one hundred runs because the Reds were no-hit and shut out in that game. The offense lost that series. The errors killed them. It was not the pitching. Had the offense that led the league in scoring showed up, and had the defense that was one of the best fielding teams showed up, the Reds win that series. You cannot blame that series on the pitching.

I think the 2012 rotation will be better, but not necessarily because of the addition of Latos. I think Arroyo will be better (closer to his career norms). I think both Bailey, Leake, and Wood will both improve simply because they are one year older. Bailey and Wood are both only 25, and that is the age most pitchers are in their rookie or sophomore years. They are two years away from reaching their peak. Leake is only 23, and I'd give him four years to reach his peak. I also think Volquez would have improved simply because he would have been one year further removed from TJ surgery, and command is always the last thing to return. The only starter I look to digress is Cueto.

The bigger challenge is going to be generating enough offense to win those games when they are behind 1-0 or 2-1. They sure didn't do it in 2011.

[RedsManRick]

I just did a super quick projection of next year's staff to get a feel for a baseline. The only big adjustments I made were Arroyo rebounding to his normal 4.50 FIP self and Chapman getting his walks down to reasonable. This is what I came up with:

Pos	Player	IP	K	BB	HR	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ER	UER
SP1	Latos	200	200	55	20	9.00	2.48	0.90	3.33	74	4
SP2	Cueto	200	140	60	18	6.30	2.70	0.81	3.87	86	5
SP3	Leake	200	140	45	25	6.30	2.03	1.13	4.10	91	5
SP4	Arroyo	200	130	45	30	5.85	2.03	1.35	4.53	101	6
SP5	Bailey	160	130	40	20	7.31	2.25	1.13	3.95	70	4
LR	LeCure	100	90	28	12	8.10	2.52	1.08	3.80	42	3
MR	Smith	60	40	22	8	6.00	3.30	1.20	4.70	31	2
MR	Arredon	60	55	30	6	8.25	4.50	0.90	4.17	28	2
MR	Chapman	80	100	35	5	11.25	3.94	0.56	2.83	25	2
SU	Bray	50	45	20	4	8.10	3.60	0.72	3.64	20	1
CL	Masset	60	55	25	6	8.25	3.75	0.90	3.92	26	2
P	Wood	80	60	20	10	6.75	2.25	1.13	4.08	36	2
P	Brackmn	20	16	12	2	7.20	5.40	0.90	4.70	10	1
	Total	1470	1201	437	166	7.35	2.68	1.02	3.93	641	38

This is meant to be quick and dirty, so take it for what it's worth. As currently constructed, with no major injuries we're looking at something like a 4.00 team FIP. Last year we put up a 4.37. Our total R/G last year was 4.44 compared to a league average of 4.16, 12th of 16 teams. So basically, I'd say our run prevention is looking to be around league average,assuming comparable defense. That nets out to about +5 wins. If you add that to last year's expected W-L of 83 wins, that puts us at 88 wins or so. Obviously that's all some real back of the envelope stuff and assumes a good bit of health. Though it passes the sniff test.

Google spreadsheet here.

[mdccclxix]

I gotta agree. If you look strictly at runs given up, the 2011 pitching staff (which is believed to be horrible) had 20 losses where the entire staff (rotation and bullpen) gave up only three runs or less (35 losses in games where staff gave up four runs or less.

Here's the thing. Go back to the 2010 playoffs versus the Phillies. Everyone agrees that the Reds were terrible in that series. For some reason, the only lesson taken away from that series was that the Reds need a TOR hammer. Huh? That's what we learned in that series?

Look closer. It wasn't the pitching that was bad. It was the offense and the terrible defense. In Games 2 and 3, the starters (Arroyo and Cueto) for the Reds only gave up one earned run each. And in Game 1, the starter (Volquez) gave up four earned runs, but lets be honest, it wouldn't have mattered if Volquez gave up only one run or one hundred runs because the Reds were no-hit and shut out in that game. The offense lost that series. The errors killed them. It was not the pitching. Had the offense that led the league in scoring showed up, and had the defense that was one of the best fielding teams showed up, the Reds win that series. You cannot blame that series on the pitching.

I think the 2012 rotation will be better, but not necessarily because of the addition of Latos. I think Arroyo will be better (closer to his career norms). I think both Bailey, Leake, and Wood will both improve simply because they are one year older. Bailey and Wood are both only 25, and that is the age most pitchers are in their rookie or sophomore years. They are two years away from reaching their peak. Leake is only 23, and I'd give him four years to reach his peak. I also think Volquez would have improved simply because he would have been one year further removed from TJ surgery, and command is always the last thing to return. The only starter I look to digress is Cueto.

The bigger challenge is going to be generating enough offense to win those games when they are behind 1-0 or 2-1. They sure didn't do it in 2011.

Looking at positional WAR for the 2011 Reds, it totaled 33.1. 5th best in MLB

If you look at pitching WAR, it totaled 7. 27th best in MLB.

The Reds won't get to the playoffs if they don't pitch. Once you get there anything can happen.

[mdccclxix]

I just did a super quick projection of next year's staff to get a feel for a baseline. The only big adjustments I made were Arroyo rebounding to his normal 4.50 FIP self and Chapman getting his walks down to reasonable. This is what I came up with:

Pos	Player	IP	K	BB	HR	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ER	UER
SP1	Latos	200	200	55	20	9.00	2.48	0.90	3.33	74	4
SP2	Cueto	200	140	60	18	6.30	2.70	0.81	3.87	86	5
SP3	Leake	200	140	45	25	6.30	2.03	1.13	4.10	91	5
SP4	Arroyo	200	130	45	30	5.85	2.03	1.35	4.53	101	6
SP5	Bailey	160	130	40	20	7.31	2.25	1.13	3.95	70	4
LR	LeCure	100	90	28	12	8.10	2.52	1.08	3.80	42	3
MR	Smith	60	40	22	8	6.00	3.30	1.20	4.70	31	2
MR	Arredon	60	55	30	6	8.25	4.50	0.90	4.17	28	2
MR	Chapman	80	100	35	5	11.25	3.94	0.56	2.83	25	2
SU	Bray	50	45	20	4	8.10	3.60	0.72	3.64	20	1
CL	Masset	60	55	25	6	8.25	3.75	0.90	3.92	26	2
P	Wood	80	60	20	10	6.75	2.25	1.13	4.08	36	2
P	Brackmn	20	16	12	2	7.20	5.40	0.90	4.70	10	1
	Total	1470	1201	437	166	7.35	2.68	1.02	3.93	641	38

This is meant to be quick and dirty, so take it for what it's worth. As currently constructed, with no major injuries we're looking at something like a 4.00 team FIP. Last year we put up a 4.37. Our total R/G last year was 4.44 compared to a league average of 4.16, 12th of 16 teams. So basically, I'd say our run prevention is looking to be around league average,assuming comparable defense. That nets out to about +5 wins. If you add that to last year's expected W-L of 83 wins, that puts us at 88 wins or so. Obviously that's all some real back of the envelope stuff and assumes a good bit of health. Though it passes the sniff test.

Google spreadsheet here.

I don't remember this ever being the case, but it seems like the Reds have a chance for all 5 SP's to finish under 4 ERA. It's small, but it could happen.

[Reds1]

I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.

Add a healthy Bailey that really showed some great stuff that moves Mike Leake to the #5 starter and instantly 1 started makes this rotation very interesting. Not to mention Chapman, but not sure how he becomes a starter this year and not being shut down by the AS break.

[nate]

I just did a super quick projection of next year's staff to get a feel for a baseline. The only big adjustments I made were Arroyo rebounding to his normal 4.50 FIP self and Chapman getting his walks down to reasonable. This is what I came up with:

Pos	Player	IP	K	BB	HR	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ER	UER
SP1	Latos	200	200	55	20	9.00	2.48	0.90	3.33	74	4
SP2	Cueto	200	140	60	18	6.30	2.70	0.81	3.87	86	5
SP3	Leake	200	140	45	25	6.30	2.03	1.13	4.10	91	5
SP4	Arroyo	200	130	45	30	5.85	2.03	1.35	4.53	101	6
SP5	Bailey	160	130	40	20	7.31	2.25	1.13	3.95	70	4
LR	LeCure	100	90	28	12	8.10	2.52	1.08	3.80	42	3
MR	Smith	60	40	22	8	6.00	3.30	1.20	4.70	31	2
MR	Arredon	60	55	30	6	8.25	4.50	0.90	4.17	28	2
MR	Chapman	80	100	35	5	11.25	3.94	0.56	2.83	25	2
SU	Bray	50	45	20	4	8.10	3.60	0.72	3.64	20	1
CL	Masset	60	55	25	6	8.25	3.75	0.90	3.92	26	2
P	Wood	80	60	20	10	6.75	2.25	1.13	4.08	36	2
P	Brackmn	20	16	12	2	7.20	5.40	0.90	4.70	10	1
	Total	1470	1201	437	166	7.35	2.68	1.02	3.93	641	38

This is meant to be quick and dirty, so take it for what it's worth. As currently constructed, with no major injuries we're looking at something like a 4.00 team FIP. Last year we put up a 4.37. Our total R/G last year was 4.44 compared to a league average of 4.16, 12th of 16 teams. So basically, I'd say our run prevention is looking to be around league average,assuming comparable defense. That nets out to about +5 wins. If you add that to last year's expected W-L of 83 wins, that puts us at 88 wins or so. Obviously that's all some real back of the envelope stuff and assumes a good bit of health. Though it passes the sniff test.

Google spreadsheet here.

Nice analysis, Rick. High five!

Seems relatively plausible. It's a nice improvement although, in a way it underscores how poor the pitching was last year. We have to sign an excellent pitcher like Latos just to get average-ish.

It sure would be nice to add another good starter.

[mdccclxix]

One impact I'm imagining is the ability for the Reds to extend winning streaks and, well, end losing streaks. We've all seen what a hot pitching staff can do for the confidence of any team. If your top two pitchers are consistent, then your next two guys get hot, things start falling the right way...you've got a 7 game winning streak. Sometimes 10 game. I'm excited for that possibility next season.

[mth123]

I hope he helps to drastically cut down on those 5 inning, 110 pitch starts that has the bullpen up and throwing in the second inning and racking up 4 innings and 5 pitchers burnt up.

To me, the rash of those things early in the season was the prime culprit in the second half collapse of the pen. You just can't win doing that three times during one turn of the rotation.