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Thread: Converting Chapman to Starter

  1. #1
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Converting Chapman to Starter

    I happen to believe this is just talk and isn't really gonna happen. Especially now since the rotation is Latos, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey (though it's fair to point out a lack of depth). And the Pen is still short even after Marshall's addition. So I came across an interesting read on the subject, enjoy.

    Converting, it's complicated...
    Link

    Of course, Bard and Aceves also represent relatively inexpensive solutions to closing, but the potential value is always going to be greater for a starter than a reliever.

    That notion helps explain why Wilsonís Rangers have become industry trend-setters. In the last four years, the team has shifted Scott Feldman (in 2008), Wilson (in 2010) and Alexi Ogando (2011) from the bullpen to the rotation with striking success. (Last winter, Texas also contacted then-free agent Bobby Jenks to see if he was open to joining their rotation. He instead chose to sign with the Sox as a setup man.)
    THE FACT THAT DANIEL BARD WILL BE PREPARED AS A STARTER DOES NOT MEAN HE WILL BE A STARTER

    This was, in essence, a decision without real consequence. Bardís offseason program will be tweaked slightly. But the decision to have him prepare to compete for a rotation spot, in its own right, means nothing.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    You may be right, but I tend to believe that no rotation is ever really set. Somewhere along the line there will be injury or underperformance or both. I happen yo believe that we're seeing a permanent, age related decline in Bronson, not just an illness related off year. And if the decline continues, I don't think the FO will allow Dusty to just keep pencklling him in.

    And if need be, Chapman will be getting ready in Louisville. I believe leaving Jim in the bullpen, even as a closer, would be a waste of Chapman's production potential.

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    I'm OK with leaving AC in the pen or even dealing him if the return were right. I think the Marshall deal was a sure signal that the final conversion of Aroldis Chapman to a starting pitcher is on! Being a successful starter would definitely be the best way to get maximum value out of him, but it's not the fait acomplit that many seem to think it is. Yes, it will be high reward if successful, but there is also a high risk if not.

    If he is successful he's a dominant starter. If not, lot of shine of his rose as far as potential trade value or you have lost opportunites to use him in high leverage relief situations where it is much more likely he can succeed.

    Having said that though, I'm more than ready to go ahead with the experiment - especially with the impending arrival of a closer (Coco, I'm afraid).

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    You may be right, but I tend to believe that no rotation is ever really set. Somewhere along the line there will be injury or underperformance or both. I happen yo believe that we're seeing a permanent, age related decline in Bronson, not just an illness related off year. And if the decline continues, I don't think the FO will allow Dusty to just keep pencklling him in.

    And if need be, Chapman will be getting ready in Louisville. I believe leaving Jim in the bullpen, even as a closer, would be a waste of Chapman's production potential.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    I'm in the minority, but I think converting Chapman now is the way for the Reds to get the least out of his deal. IMO, its going to take 2 full seasons to complete this process and over that time he'll be unavailable a lot of the time while he builds innings, ineffective while he hones his pitch assortment and learns to get major league hitters out without throwing 100+ for 15 pitches and generally a weak spot in the rotation while the Reds cut bait on others who might be better used there. He'll have a rough time making it through line-ups and probably will have high pitch counts that require him leaving in the 5th and putting pressure on the bullpen. Since most guys take lumps for 200 to 300 innings as starters before they get it together, I'm guessing it will be 2014 before he's ready to really be a plus in the rotation. At that point Chapman will be arb eligible, the remainder of his deal will convert to a signing bonus and it will be expensive to re-sign him. Coming off 2 years of reduced performance from the conversion may make the Reds balk at another expensive deal for Aroldis and he'll be on borrowed time in Cincy. It just feels like we're wasting a couple of seasons of Aroldis contributing (which he could immediately as a late inning reliever) while we develop him to be a plus starter for his new team in Boston or New York.
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm in the minority, but I think converting Chapman now is the way for the Reds to get the least out of his deal. IMO, its going to take 2 full seasons to complete this process and over that time he'll be unavailable a lot of the time while he builds innings, ineffective while he hones his pitch assortment and learns to get major league hitters out without throwing 100+ for 15 pitches and generally a weak spot in the rotation while the Reds cut bait on others who might be better used there. He'll have a rough time making it through line-ups and probably will have high pitch counts that require him leaving in the 5th and putting pressure on the bullpen. Since most guys take lumps for 200 to 300 innings as starters before they get it together, I'm guessing it will be 2014 before he's ready to really be a plus in the rotation. At that point Chapman will be arb eligible, the remainder of his deal will convert to a signing bonus and it will be expensive to re-sign him. Coming off 2 years of reduced performance from the conversion may make the Reds balk at another expensive deal for Aroldis and he'll be on borrowed time in Cincy. It just feels like we're wasting a couple of seasons of Aroldis contributing (which he could immediately as a late inning reliever) while we develop him to be a plus starter for his new team in Boston or New York.
    Yeah, this about sums it up for me as well. I say save your dollars Bob and Walt and use this guy as a closer now. If he doesn't do well you still have Marshall and Masset and can move him back to 7th or 8th innings. But I'd also be ok with using Marshall as the closer from the beginning and keeping Aroldis (and Masset) as the guy(s) you float around from 7 to 8. And instead of spending big bucks on a closer you can add a starter for depth, a bat for LF and possibly a backup MIF at the deadline if not sooner.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    . It just feels like we're wasting a couple of seasons of Aroldis contributing (which he could immediately as a late inning reliever) while we develop him to be a plus starter for his new team in Boston or New York.
    I agree with this completely.. If it were 2004, I wouldn't mind being patient and watching Chapman learn to start for that mythical time when the stars line up

    But we are contending now.. Part of going "all in" is leveraging your resources the best you can.

    Although I will say this.. If Homer gets a long stint on the DL, or Arroyo becomes useless, the Reds might look like a genius when they can call up Chapman 6 weeks into the season and plug him into the rotation.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Silly question, but how long is Chapman under team control?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Silly question, but how long is Chapman under team control?
    2012-2016
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    2012-2016
    So he is not eligible for FA until after the 2016 season?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    It's already been stated that Chapman will start the season in Louisville's rotation. I don't think by any means is he ready to join the rotation right out of Spring. They have to build his stamina to go 6 or 7 innings.
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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    This decision is, IMHO, absolutely the way to push this team to the next level: in that regard, the decision fits with the Latos trade. I'd give the experiment this whole year if necessary.

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Everybody has at least 7 guys take starts throughout the season. Pitchers get hurt.

    How many lefties can you use out of the pen? How many lefties can you use in important roles out of the pen? Three seems like a lot. If Marshall is the closer or even the main setup guy assuming they sign another guy to close, then you have Bray who is certainly more than a single batter loogy. Is there space in the pen for another lefty to fill an important multibatter role?

    Can anybody think of a pen that had three very good lefty relievers?

    If they are going all in this year, it's tough to see how you put Chapman in the minors for 2-3 months.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Random thought that popped into my head the other day: the starting pitching depth isn't *quite* as poor as it appears--don't forget that LeCure could be asked to make a few starts...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Converting Chapman to Starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Silly question, but how long is Chapman under team control?

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