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Thread: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

  1. #136
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Off the top of my head, as per replacements likely to be ready for 2013:
    Bullpen
    Jeremy Horst
    Josh Judy
    Jordan Smith
    Carlos Fisher (if still with the team)
    Andrew Brackman
    Donnie Joseph
    Tim Crabbe
    JC Sulburan
    Scott Carroll
    Donnie Joseph

    2B Options
    DiDi Gregorious
    Henry Rodriguez
    Cody Puckett

    OF Options
    Dennis Phipps
    Cody Puckett
    Bill Rhinehart

    All, to one degree or another, could be ready, will be cheap, and could replace more expensive options already on the roster.

    If Stubbs continues to struggle, an OF of Frazier, Heisey, and Bruce would provide a ton of power, questionable obp, but very good defense. (This would be the prototypical Cardinal outfield under Jocketty, BTW. Not great, but cheap and serviceable.)

    If Masset or Ondrusek struggle, the above bullpen options abound. Both Judy and Brackman have the stuff to close and are nearly ready, if not completely there. If thsoe two are good, you can always reverse the Marshall flip and find help (i.e., cheap prospective OF or 2B).

    There are also at least three 2B options nearly ready and making league minimum.

    In short, the Reds have a lot of options for a year or two from now if some guys get too expensive and that shouldn't keep them from making moves.
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  3. #137
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If Latos has another year like the last 2, he'll get $5 Million. Leake probably gets close to $3 Million. Stubbs over $2 Million. Bailey will be in his second year of Arb and will get around $2.5 Million, more if he breaks out. Masset and Bray will both be over $3 Million. Here are the numbers I'm using:

    Code:
    Johnny Cueto	7.40
    Mat Latos	5.00
    Bronson Arroyo	6.50
    Homer Bailey	2.75
    Mike Leake	3.00
    Aroldis Chapman	3.25
    Sam Lecure	1.50
    Jose Arredondo	3.00
    Logan Ondrusek	0.75
    Bill Bray	3.00
    Donnie Joseph	0.50
    Nick Maset	3.00
    Ryan Hanigan	2.05
    Devin Mesoraco	0.60
    Joey Votto	19.00
    H. Rod     	0.50
    Zach Cozart	0.60
    Todd Frazier	0.60
    Juan Francisco	0.60
    Neftali Soto	0.50
    Denis Phipps	0.50
    Drew Stubbs	3.00
    Jay Bruce	7.50
    Chris Heisey	1.50
    Who Knows	0.50
    	
    Injury add ons	2.00
    	
    	
    	
    Total Cost	79.1
    Now add Arroyo and Chapman annuity fundings 4.0, Phillips extension $9.0, Marshall Extension $5.0 and Madson (say $8.0). That's $105 Million. If I'm over by $5 Million its still way over the 2013 budget. If we assume a $90 Million budget, at least 3 guys will need to go (say Masset, Bray and Bailey) and they still won't have any money for replacements. Remember the Reds still need a LF for both 2012 and 2013. Pass on a 2nd year for Madson and Pass on extending Phillips and they have a chance. They'll have a little money to play with that way to bring in minimum guys.
    We really have no idea, and probably neither do the Reds, know what the payroll will be in 2013. They probably don't even have an exact number for 2012 yet.

    If the Reds make the playoffs, it's not unrealistic to think the 2013 payroll could be near $100M. It will be at at least $85M in 2012. 2013 could be as low as $75M if the team tanks in 2012. This is exactly why you don't make too many decision in 2012 based on what might happen in 2013. There are more unknowns than knowns.
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  4. #138
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Off the top of my head, as per replacements likely to be ready for 2013:
    Bullpen
    Jeremy Horst
    Josh Judy
    Jordan Smith
    Carlos Fisher (if still with the team)
    Andrew Brackman
    Donnie Joseph
    Tim Crabbe
    JC Sulburan
    Scott Carroll
    Donnie Joseph

    2B Options
    DiDi Gregorious
    Henry Rodriguez
    Cody Puckett

    OF Options
    Dennis Phipps
    Cody Puckett
    Bill Rhinehart

    All, to one degree or another, could be ready, will be cheap, and could replace more expensive options already on the roster.

    If Stubbs continues to struggle, an OF of Frazier, Heisey, and Bruce would provide a ton of power, questionable obp, but very good defense. (This would be the prototypical Cardinal outfield under Jocketty, BTW. Not great, but cheap and serviceable.)

    If Masset or Ondrusek struggle, the above bullpen options abound. Both Judy and Brackman have the stuff to close and are nearly ready, if not completely there. If thsoe two are good, you can always reverse the Marshall flip and find help (i.e., cheap prospective OF or 2B).

    There are also at least three 2B options nearly ready and making league minimum.

    In short, the Reds have a lot of options for a year or two from now if some guys get too expensive and that shouldn't keep them from making moves.
    Sure, I know the names. But, barring a surprise, those are all significant downgrades. Maybe getting one bullpen arm from all of those guys who turns out to be anything more than the sacrificial 12th man of the staff type might be reasonbable (and with Ondrusek, that's one area that is covered). Frazier is not a reasonable option to start in the OF. Maybe Phipps really did get it last year, but I don't think he is either. Puckett and Rhinehart aren't even major league options IMO. H-Rod backfilling for Phillips would be the only option I'd be hopeful about working, but even that will be a huge drop-off. Smith, Horst, Fisher and Carroll are filler. Crabbe and Sulbaran might be more hopeful. Judy and Brackman are lottery tickets at this point. I hope Joseph can bounce back. Manno and Thurman are others I'd have hopes for. Replacing Bray might be the most likely move they could make with those three coming. Beyond H-Rod, the Reds need big years from Soto, Lamarre, Sulbaran, Crabbe, Brackman and Joseph. Those are the guys who might be able to replace some of these guys as they get expensive, but few of them will be ready for 2013 IMO. That's why 2013 is where the problem is IMO.

    I loved the trades, but this is why I say dealing Sappelt and Boxberger hurts the most of all of those guys. Sappelt was a reasonable alternative to Stubbs. Boxberger was a reasonable alternative to Masset. I hope Brackman can be one, but he's a million to one shot IMO, and if Brackman is a million to one, Judy is probably a billion to one.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-01-2012 at 05:44 PM.
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  5. #139
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?


  6. #140
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I'd like to see this but not sure Marshall would sign off on that deal.

    I'm sure Marshall and his agent will go for more than 5MM per year.

    .
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 01-02-2012 at 04:57 PM.

  7. #141
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I'd like to see this but not sure Marshall would sign off on that deal.

    I'm sure Marshall and his agent will go for more than 5MM per year.
    Completely agree, Ron. If we get three more years at $15 million, I will be very happy and I think many of the trade detractors will turn into supporters.

  8. #142
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Boras is reportedly asking for $15-17 million per year for Edwin Jackson. Also reported as $60 MM for five years. These are from various reports picked up on MLB Trade Rumors.

    If this is so, then the asking price for Madson probably remains astronomical. If so, we can cross him off.

  9. #143
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Boras is reportedly asking for $15-17 million per year for Edwin Jackson. Also reported as $60 MM for five years. These are from various reports picked up on MLB Trade Rumors.

    If this is so, then the asking price for Madson probably remains astronomical. If so, we can cross him off.
    No way anyone is going to pay that for Jackson.
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  10. #144
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Boras is reportedly asking for $15-17 million per year for Edwin Jackson. Also reported as $60 MM for five years. These are from various reports picked up on MLB Trade Rumors.

    If this is so, then the asking price for Madson probably remains astronomical. If so, we can cross him off.
    Well, other than a few crazy teams, like the Nationals, Angels, and Marlins...........it does seem like the rest of the league is starting to balk at these prices. Even the Red Sox and Yankees have calmed down.......then again, they already have gigantic payrolls.

    I still think Madsen will get 3 yrs/$33M from some team. Probably the Angels.
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  11. #145
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Boras is reportedly asking for $15-17 million per year for Edwin Jackson. Also reported as $60 MM for five years. These are from various reports picked up on MLB Trade Rumors.

    If this is so, then the asking price for Madson probably remains astronomical. If so, we can cross him off.
    Reports were that Madson/Boras were looking for 4/$44M, but would listen @ 3/$33M. I would love Madson, but would prefer extending marshall. Signing Madson would make extending Marshall tough. I'd offer Marshall the 3/$30 first.

  12. #146
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Interesting conversation here to look back on now that the deal is done.

  13. #147
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    I'm glad I never posted it on here, but I mocked you guys for thinking this signing could happen.

  14. #148
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I'm glad I never posted it on here, but I mocked you guys for thinking this signing could happen.
    Haha! Love the honesty.

  15. #149
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Who else out there is there that needs a closer bad enough to pay him $10 mil if the Reds don't give it?

    From what I can tell, the market for closers is almost non-existent right now. The Reds might be able to wait this one out and get a bargain.
    Shameless of me lol
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #150
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Shameless of me lol
    Right on the money from Brutus. BOOM! (Not that you're shameless ... that you were right.)


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