Closer: Down to Cordero or Madson?

[Edd Roush]

Well, I want to win in 2012 and 2013, but each deal still should be evaluated on its own. There are lots of middling relief arms avaialble. I'd rather sign, say, Chad Qualls and keep the comp pick, than sign Cordero. There just isn't a reason to sign Cordero to give up that pick. He's not better than the rest of the pack.

I don't know if a pick is involved with Madson. My concern is signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal could mean that Cueto or Bruce would have to go after 2012 to keep the budget in line. I'd be fine with Madson on a one year deal or one year with an option that they can get out of, as long as it doesn't prevent them from getting a LF.

Chad Qualls sounds interesting to me. That being said, he does have some baggage which will allow him to be acquired by a team like the Reds. What happened to his Ks last year? Did he pitch more to contact since half of his games were in San Diego? Also, what happened in 2010? Either way, I think he is as good of a bet to be productive as Cordero is and we get the comp pick.

All of this said, all signs point towards us re-signing Coco. Let's hope he can add Luke Scott as well.

[LoganBuck]

Well, I want to win in 2012 and 2013, but each deal still should be evaluated on its own. There are lots of middling relief arms avaialble. I'd rather sign, say, Chad Qualls and keep the comp pick, than sign Cordero. There just isn't a reason to sign Cordero to give up that pick. He's not better than the rest of the pack.

I don't know if a pick is involved with Madson. My concern is signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal could mean that Cueto or Bruce would have to go after 2012 to keep the budget in line. I'd be fine with Madson on a one year deal or one year with an option that they can get out of, as long as it doesn't prevent them from getting a LF.

No, Rolen will come off the books at that point. Yeah the Reds have to replace him, but he helps with the payflex. Also Bruce and Cueto don't really cost much until after 2013.

[mth123]

No, Rolen will come off the books at that point. Yeah the Reds have to replace him, but he helps with the payflex. Also Bruce and Cueto don't really cost much until after 2013.

Nope. Add raises for Votto, Bruce, Hanigan and Cueto, add reasonable estimates for the arb guys who will get decent raises (Latos, Leake, Bailey, Stubbs, Masset, Bray, Arredondo and maybe Heisey and Ondrusek) and remove Rolen, Marshall, Phillips and Cairo and they are at around $75 to $78 Million with minimum guys replacing all of those. Now add annuity payments for Arroyo and Chapman and its low 80s. Add Madson for a second year and its over 90. That's before we add supposed in the works extensions for Phillips and Marshall which would put it over 100. They can move some of the bullpen guys (say Masset and Bray) to get it back to mid to upper 90s but they can't do all three of extending Phillips, extending Marshall and adding a free agent for a second year. They may only be able to do one of those things while subtracting Masset and Bray to stay below $90 Million. Otherwise its either Votto ($19 Million in 2013), Bruce ($7.5 Million in 2013) or Cueto ($7.4 Million in 2013) who will need to go to get it back in line.

[LoganBuck]

Nope. Add raises for Votto, Bruce, Hanigan and Cueto, add reasonable estimates for the arb guys who will get decent raises (Latos, Leake, Bailey, Stubbs, Masset, Bray, Arredondo and maybe Heisey and Ondrusek) and remove Rolen, Marshall, Phillips and Cairo and they are at around $75 to $78 Million with minimum guys replacing all of those. Now add annuity payments for Arroyo and Chapman and its low 80s. Add Madson for a second year and its over 90. That's before we add supposed in the works extensions for Phillips and Marshall which would put it over 100. They can move some of the bullpen guys (say Masset and Bray) to get it back to mid to upper 90s but they can't do all three of extending Phillips, extending Marshall and adding a free agent for a second year. They may only be able to do one of those things while subtracting Masset and Bray to stay below $90 Million. Otherwise its either Votto ($19 Million in 2013), Bruce ($7.5 Million in 2013) or Cueto ($7.4 Million in 2013) who will need to go to get it back in line.

Cueto and Bruce will not be dealt. I think you missed the obvious budget point, the arb eligible guys. I won't pay the Baileys and Stubbs types at the expense of Cueto and Bruce.

[mth123]

Cueto and Bruce will not be dealt. I think you missed the obvious budget point, the arb eligible guys. I won't pay the Baileys and Stubbs types at the expense of Cueto and Bruce.

Didn't miss it at all. But if they extend Phillips and Marshall and sign Madson to multiple years, they'll be at around $105 Million in 2013. Even if they rid them selves of Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey, they'll still be up over $90 Million with a few newly created holes to fill. To make up that much gap, they'll need to deal off some one making more money who can bring in somebody to fill a hole or two for the minimum. That's probably Cueto with Chapman sliding into his rotation spot.

IMO, the better idea is to go one year, maybe with an option, with Madson and pass on extending Phillips. Marshall could be extended as long as he doesn't go over $5 Million for 2013.

Chapman staying in the bullpen as the closer would solve a lot of these problems IMO.

[MartyFan]

Didn't miss it at all. But if they extend Phillips and Marshall and sign Madson to multiple years, they'll be at around $105 Million in 2013. Even if they rid them selves of Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey, they'll still be up over $90 Million with a few newly created holes to fill. To make up that much gap, they'll need to deal off some one making more money who can bring in somebody to fill a hole or two for the minimum. That's probably Cueto with Chapman sliding into his rotation spot.

IMO, the better idea is to go one year, maybe with an option, with Madson and pass on extending Phillips. Marshall could be extended as long as he doesn't go over $5 Million for 2013.

Chapman staying in the bullpen as the closer would solve a lot of these problems IMO.

I do believe that Phillips or Votto get dealt...less likely Votto now that Alonso is gone. I don't see Cueto going anywhere just yet but I seriously doubt the Reds extend Phillips...and even though I love watching him, I can't say I disagree.

[757690]

Didn't miss it at all. But if they extend Phillips and Marshall and sign Madson to multiple years, they'll be at around $105 Million in 2013. Even if they rid them selves of Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey, they'll still be up over $90 Million with a few newly created holes to fill. To make up that much gap, they'll need to deal off some one making more money who can bring in somebody to fill a hole or two for the minimum. That's probably Cueto with Chapman sliding into his rotation spot.

IMO, the better idea is to go one year, maybe with an option, with Madson and pass on extending Phillips. Marshall could be extended as long as he doesn't go over $5 Million for 2013.

Chapman staying in the bullpen as the closer would solve a lot of these problems IMO.

Really strong analysis as usual, but a few quick points.

1) Chapman can't be a reliever. He can't go back to back days, which means he can't be a reliever. It was a nice experiment, that I think went on too long, but he now has to go back to starting, where he belongs. I know that's a big point for you, but there just is no way he can be a reliever, and only be able to pitch non-consecutive days.

2) Trading Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey really doesn't create any holes. These guys are nice because they are cheap, but in a few years, the Reds should be able to find more cheap replacements for them. If not, then they have no business contending. Also, if they sign Madson to a long term deal, they don't extend Marshall, really no need to.

[Blitz Dorsey]

If the Reds are truly going "all in" this year, there is really only one option for the closer's role IMO: Ryan Madson.

Hopefully the Reds don't "settle" for Cordero or someone else at closer right after making bold moves like the Latos and Marshall trades. If being bold is the theme this offseason, sign the best free-agent closer still on the market! If we're going to go for this thing, let's go for it.

[Kc61]

2) Trading Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey really doesn't create any holes. These guys are nice because they are cheap, but in a few years, the Reds should be able to find more cheap replacements for them. If not, then they have no business contending. Also, if they sign Madson to a long term deal, they don't extend Marshall, really no need to.

I agree.

The Reds will never contend if they are constantly worried about the salary structure two and three years down the road.

A good GM finds a way to dump salaries in the future if the payroll gets too high.

Another possibility is Arroyo. if he has a good year in 2012, maybe the Reds find a taker for him next off-season.

Having given up a boat load of prospects for now, they should try and win now.

I'm hoping that next week brings either Madson or a meaningful left fielder to the Reds. Or both?

[HokieRed]

Keep the rotation strong and the bullpen deep, even if there's no one or two outstanding guys. Make affordable offers to thy stars and then let them walk when they ask for terms that will break the overall structure. Two years out the difference between Bailey and what you'll find to replace him might well be greater than that between Phillips and an in-house 2ber or even between Votto and Soto.

[mth123]

Really strong analysis as usual, but a few quick points.

1) Chapman can't be a reliever. He can't go back to back days, which means he can't be a reliever. It was a nice experiment, that I think went on too long, but he now has to go back to starting, where he belongs. I know that's a big point for you, but there just is no way he can be a reliever, and only be able to pitch non-consecutive days.

2) Trading Stubbs, Masset, Bray and Bailey really doesn't create any holes. These guys are nice because they are cheap, but in a few years, the Reds should be able to find more cheap replacements for them. If not, then they have no business contending. Also, if they sign Madson to a long term deal, they don't extend Marshall, really no need to.

So who fills in for Bray, Masset and Marshall in 2013. The pen would be Madson, Lecure and Arredondo and some kids. I can buy a couple of those spots, but the Reds don't really have much coming. Maybe Sulbaran and Crabbe. I suppose Chapman would slide in for Bailey. Who plays in the OF? Bruce, Heisey and who? And they still would need to cut more to get below $90 Million. Maybe Arredondo would go to. The main reason I am hearing to sign Madson beyond one year is so that the bullpen won't have to be restocked every year, but it seems like a multi-year deal almost guarantees that the entire bullpen would need to be rebuilt and the Reds don't really have internal options coming that would qualify as more than 12th man on the staff types at this point.

One other assumption we're all making is that Rolen will be gone after 2012. He doesn't want to go anywhere else, and he's Walt's guy. If Rolen decides he's not ready to retire, I'm guessing he'll be back. It may be at a reduced salary, but even at say $3 Million per year, he adds to the budget problem.

IMO, commiting big dollars to a closer beyond 2012 just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. I'd use the money to lock-up Marshall and Latos, to keep at least some of those arb guys and keep some playflex to add a bat after this season's one year rental plays itself out.

[757690]

So who fills in for Bray, Masset and Marshall in 2013. The pen would be Madson, Lecure and Arredondo and some kids. I can buy a couple of those spots, but the Reds don't really have much coming. Maybe Sulbaran and Crabbe. I suppose Chapman would slide in for Bailey. Who plays in the OF? Bruce, Heisey and who? And they still would need to cut more to get below $90 Million. Maybe Arredondo would go to. The main reason I am hearing to sign Madson beyond one year is so that the bullpen won't have to be restocked every year, but it seems like a multi-year deal almost guarantees that the entire bullpen would need to be rebuilt and the Reds don't really have internal options coming that would qualify as more than 12th man on the staff types at this point.

One other assumption we're all making is that Rolen will be gone after 2012. He doesn't want to go anywhere else, and he's Walt's guy. If Rolen decides he's not ready to retire, I'm guessing he'll be back. It may be at a reduced salary, but even at say $3 Million per year, he adds to the budget problem.

IMO, commiting big dollars to a closer beyond 2012 just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. I'd use the money to lock-up Marshall and Latos, to keep at least some of those arb guys and keep some playflex to add a bat after this season's one year rental plays itself out.

It'll be easy to find similar production to Bray, Masset, Bailey and Stubbs off of the waiver wire, and cheap free agents between now and 2013. They really aren't anything special. If Stubbs has a breakout season in 2012, that would change the equation, but only in a good way.

[mth123]

It'll be easy to find similar production to Bray, Masset, Bailey and Stubbs off of the waiver wire, and cheap free agents between now and 2013. They really aren't anything special. If Stubbs has a breakout season in 2012, that would change the equation, but only in a good way.

I don't buy it. If they want to sign somebody for multiple years, they should be trading some of these guys now for lower dollar guys who might be ready next year and breaking somebody in as the 12th pitcher who may be able to establish himself for next season.

I just wouldn't sign anybody who would put the team in a position of dumping 3 or 4 guys after the season. Sign Madson for a one year deal for $8 Million. Add a mutual option for next year also at $8 Million. If the Reds opt out, there is a $2 Million buy-out. If Madson pitches well, he can opt out and go for a big pay day after the season. If Madson pitches poorly, the Reds can opt out and Madson still gets $10 Million for one season. Madson probably isn't going to get $10 Million to pitch in 2012 from anybody else. If they could sign him, then I'd probably shop Masset. Otherwise, there isn't a reliever out there who is better than the Marshall, Arredondo, Bray, Masset, Lecure group. I'd still be inclined to sign a couple guys, but I wouldn't pay for a closer. I'd move Lecure into the 7th inning mix and sign a 6th starter type and I'd sign another middle guy and push Ondrusek down to AAA. Neither signing would be for big bucks and wouldn't be for more than one year unless 2013 is for $2 Million or less. If the Reds go that route, I'd still pick a closer (mostly because I don't think the Manager is capable of doing it another way) and go with it. I'd try Arredondo as my closer under that plan.

[AmarilloRed]

Mth, aren't you overrating the arbitration issues for 2013? I've got 52.3 million in contract commitments for that year excluding the arb issues. 5 of these are arb eligible for the 1st time, and I'd be very surprised if many of them got over 2 million in arb. It's also far from a sure thing the Reds will offer all of them arbitration. They seem to favor reaching a settlement with the player before the arbitration process is complete. I'd be really surprised if all the arbitration raises brought the player budget over 70 million.

I'm actually more worried about 2014 and beyond. 50 million from Votto, Cueto, Bruce, and Latos(I'm assuming he'll get close to 10 million in arbitration that year with 2 good years). I am assuming the Reds re-sign Votto for about 20 million a year(although it could be more). Chapman will be about 4 million, and thrown in a Phillips extension committed contracts would be at least 65 million.It'll definitely put a strain on the player budget.

[mth123]

Mth, aren't you overrating the arbitration issues for 2013? I've got 52.3 million in contract commitments for that year excluding the arb issues. 5 of these are arb eligible for the 1st time, and I'd be very surprised if many of them got over 2 million in arb. It's also far from a sure thing the Reds will offer all of them arbitration. They seem to favor reaching a settlement with the player before the arbitration process is complete. I'd be really surprised if all the arbitration raises brought the player budget over 70 million.

I'm actually more worried about 2014 and beyond. 50 million from Votto, Cueto, Bruce, and Latos(I'm assuming he'll get close to 10 million in arbitration that year with 2 good years). I am assuming the Reds re-sign Votto for about 20 million a year(although it could be more). Chapman will be about 4 million, and thrown in a Phillips extension committed contracts would be at least 65 million.It'll definitely put a strain on the player budget.

If Latos has another year like the last 2, he'll get $5 Million. Leake probably gets close to $3 Million. Stubbs over $2 Million. Bailey will be in his second year of Arb and will get around $2.5 Million, more if he breaks out. Masset and Bray will both be over $3 Million. Here are the numbers I'm using:

Johnny Cueto	7.40
Mat Latos	5.00
Bronson Arroyo	6.50
Homer Bailey	2.75
Mike Leake	3.00
Aroldis Chapman	3.25
Sam Lecure	1.50
Jose Arredondo	3.00
Logan Ondrusek	0.75
Bill Bray	3.00
Donnie Joseph	0.50
Nick Maset	3.00
Ryan Hanigan	2.05
Devin Mesoraco	0.60
Joey Votto	19.00
H. Rod     	0.50
Zach Cozart	0.60
Todd Frazier	0.60
Juan Francisco	0.60
Neftali Soto	0.50
Denis Phipps	0.50
Drew Stubbs	3.00
Jay Bruce	7.50
Chris Heisey	1.50
Who Knows	0.50
	
Injury add ons	2.00
	
	
	
Total Cost	79.1

Now add Arroyo and Chapman annuity fundings 4.0, Phillips extension $9.0, Marshall Extension $5.0 and Madson (say $8.0). That's $105 Million. If I'm over by $5 Million its still way over the 2013 budget. If we assume a $90 Million budget, at least 3 guys will need to go (say Masset, Bray and Bailey) and they still won't have any money for replacements. Remember the Reds still need a LF for both 2012 and 2013. Pass on a 2nd year for Madson and Pass on extending Phillips and they have a chance. They'll have a little money to play with that way to bring in minimum guys.