Simulating 2012

[powersackers]

I got my yearly copy of Diamond Mind baseball (PC game) 2011 disk yesterday. I have made all relevant off season moves to the rosters and for fun I am simulating 2012.

It does a good job of simulating what might happen if everyone pretty much repeats their 2011 performances. I even went so far as to suspend Ryan Braun for the first 50 games (until May 25th).

I ran the Simulation to predict the Reds 2012 with Latos/Marshall et all. Here are the results:

Sim 1
St. Louis 102-60
Cincinnati 90-72 (Win NL Wild Card)

Sim 2
St. Louis 88-74
Cincinnati 84-78 (Lose WC to PHL/FLR by a lot - each had 106 wins)

Sim 3
St. Louis 90-72
Pittsburgh 88-74 (Big years from their young SP and bullpen, WC out of East)
Cincinnati 87-75


What this shows me is St. Louis is still a major factor. Beltran, Holiday, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, David Freese, Yadier Molina etc are a better lineup than ours, and Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia et all are a tough staff to contend with, not to mention their bullpen. They weren't the WS champs for nothing. Albert or not.

Also, Heisey does pretty good in the sim. 25 HR and 100 RBI with a .250 Avg. Cozart does really well batting second behind Phillips. Latos was a couple games over .500 pitcher each year, and his ERA was 3.72 at best to just over 4.00 at worst.

Chicago, MLW and Houston were non factors.

[R_Webb18]

the problem with this is we don't want it to be based on last year