RHP Andrew Brackman
1B/3B Sean Buckley
RHP Drew Cisco
RHP Tim Crabbe
LHP Amir Garrett
UT Brodie Greene
RHP Josh Judy
OF Ryan LaMarre
1B Donald Lutz
LHP Chris Manno
OF Denis Phipps
RHP Dan Renken
RHP J.C. Sulbaran
RHP Josh Smith
RHP Pedro Villarreal
other (please list below)
Crabbe has way more results than Garrett and is WAY closer to doing something in the bigs than Garrett. I think Crabbe has way more value, not that I'm not excited to have Garrett in the system.
I would obviously much rather have a Bip Roberts clone than a Miguel Cairo clone in my minor league system.
Looking over Bip's stats, I didn't realize he had a .392 OBP for the Reds in 1992.
It's kind of difficult to compare Bip's minor league stats to Greene's because Bip was a high school draftee and Greene came out of college. Bip tore up Low A when he was only 19 with a .419 OBP. When he hit High A the next year, he had an OBP of .358. Greene only had a .343 OBP in a hitter's league in his Age 23 season.
Bip was a helluva ballplayer. I think Greene has a lot of work to do to get to the Bip Roberts level.
For me, I'll take my choice of the arms with potential still over a guy who hasn't done much in High A.
If he can add an above-average third pitch and stick around as a starter in AA, then yes, he'll be in my top 10. And if he can make the reliever (perhaps closer) transition and still dominate (don't forget, it was difficult with Boxberger at first), he'll be top 15.
Garrett's a big unknown, but he was considered a possible supplemental pick before the draft, got that kind of money, and as a 6'6'' basketball-playing lefty is about as big of an arm as you can get. He's new to the game, so looking at his stuff right now isn't necessarily the best benchmark, but he already has a plus fastball in the mid-90's and promising secondary stuff with the athleticism to take advantage of it.
I expect to see Crabbe in the Pensacola rotation all year and I expect him to keep a strong K rate and hopefully see further improvement with his BB numbers. I hope Mario Soto spends some time with him so he can add a good change up along with his plus fastball and plus slider.
Crabbe is far, far more likely to reach the majors in some form, whether it's in the rotation or as a reliever, and he'll likely be a good player. But Garrett has the potential to be much more, and at this point in the rankings, that's a rare thing.
I also think Garrett has a chance to be another TOR arm, but he isn't a better prospect right now because he is three years behind Crabbe in the developmental curve and has no refined secondary pitches yet.
That being said, as soon as Crabbe is finally voted in, I will likely shift my support to Garrett. I like high upside arms over high floor players like LaMarre and Brodie Greene who have a better chance of making the bigs, but I don't think will do much when they get there. I like Garrett, he is just too far away for me to vote him in over Crabbe.
I will admit, I ranked Garrett higher than Crabbe. Crabbe, clearly and unequivocally is the better of the two right now and it isn't close. My reasoning was that Crabbe, despite his two very good pitches is still likely to wind up as a reliever. The Reds know his stuff and even they had him coming out of the bullpen 10+ times this season. Garrett, while much more raw and not nearly as good right now or even having two very good pitches (though I did see promising reports on his curveball), still has a chance to be a starter where as I think the chances are much lower for Crabbe. Still, I completely get either side of the argument.
He did strike out 68 guys while only walking 22 in 60 1/3 IP. Thats a K:BB over 3 in that small sample size and his ERA was a stellar 3.28 in that stretch. I believe you said the league average ERA in California was 4.50.
Is there any chance now that the Reds now see what they have on their hands and allow him to start in the 2012 Pensacola rotation?
I never pitched growing up, so I just don't get how hard it is to throw a different grip on the ball and let 'er rip.
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