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Thread: Remaining unsigned free agents

  1. #31
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I am going to go ahead and answer your rhetorical question.

    I see no reason why the Reds' revenue cannot increase marginally over the next several years. The Reds will never have a top-10 attendance due to a smaller ballpark that limits ticket sales on big weekends and Opening Day and the fact that the Reds' fan base is so dispersed that weekday games become difficult for most of the Reds' fans to attend.

    That being said, attendance will increase if the Reds become a 90+ win team. The increase in attendance will raise revenues for obviously ticket sales, but also merchandise & food sales. The Reds should be able to support a payroll in the 90s.

    Is a payroll in the 90s enough to sign Votto, Phillips & Marshall to an extension while also signing Madson? Likely not. That being said. Madson would be affordable in 2012 if we do have $12 M left in the budget and moves can be made in 2013 & 2014 to keep a top-level reliever around.

    If we are really "going for it" in 2012, let's go all-in. Let's sign another hammer to the back of the bullpen and try to make most close leads after 7 innings a given W.

    Yeah, that's pretty much the way I see it too, so it would behoove the Reds to be careful when handing out long term deals and extensions.


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  3. #32
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    ....The other thing to remember is that eventually Bob will sell the franchise.

    As franchise value goes up, then theoretically Bob's ability to spend on payroll should be able to go up as well even if he is running at a loss.

    Just for example.
    Carl buys the reds for 10 million. Runs them as a break even franchise that loses more than it wins for 10 years and then sells them for 19 million. Carl has made 9 million over 10 years.
    Augie buys his franchise for 10 million and runs them at a financial loss for a couple years but produces winning teams. Winning teams draw more fans and sell more expensive broadcast rights. At the end of 10 years Augie sells his team for 109 million while losing 15 million in payroll over the first 5 years. Augie has made 95 million dollars.

    Yeah, I pulled the numbers out of thin air, but numbers like that exist and I know which type of owner the reds have had for years. So long that we are know used to it.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  4. #33
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    I'd take a chance on Andruw Jones. I've saying that for a while now.

  5. #34
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Yeah, that's pretty much the way I see it too, so it would behoove the Reds to be careful when handing out long term deals and extensions.
    I think a Votto extension is worth the cost at pretty much any price since it is very difficult (if not impossible) to get the same value per dollar a Votto is going to provide.

    I wouldn't mind a Phillips extension, but I don't really want to go beyond 2014 and I don't really know if he's worth more than $10,000,000 considering how his range will diminish over the contract.

    Marshall is one of the top relievers in baseball. I have a hard time knowing how much his 75 innings a year are worth. If you look at simply WAR, you can say 2.5, but when you think about how important those innings are compared to others since you have less chances to get the W, then you could say even more.

    I'm sure Walt has a better idea than all of us through his conversations with Bob what the budget will look like in 2012, 2013 & 2014. If it is 85 in 2012, 90 in 2013 & 95 in 2014, I do think we have enough money to sign Madson to a 3 year - 27 million dollar deal. If it is 85 in 2012, 86 in 2013 & 87 in 2014, I can see not signing Madson so we can attempt to re-sign Votto.

  6. #35
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I do not accept the premise that the Reds are tapped out financially, for 2012 or 2013.

    They have not increased their payroll at all through acquisitions this off season. They added Marshall, but gave up Volquez.

    If the premise is that salary increases to current Reds is all they can afford, then ownership should dump the team. The Reds as a major league franchise should be able to incrementally add new player salaries in years they are competitive.

    They dropped two major salaries. Cordero and Hernandez. Reds should add some salary back in for new players.

    Madson at $8 million per or slightly more for three years is much less in the aggregate than the Reds paid Cordero to close.

    If Madson commands $11-12 million per year or so, I could see the Reds dropping out. But the press reports suggest he may have to take less than he wanted, which I read to mean maybe below ten per.

    I mean, if you are trying to win, then really try.
    Accept or not, here are the numbers:

    Code:
    Johnny Cueto	7.40
    Mat Latos	5.00
    Bronson Arroyo	6.50
    Homer Bailey	2.75
    Mike Leake	3.00
    Aroldis Chapman	3.25
    Sam Lecure	1.50
    Jose Arredondo	3.00
    Logan Ondrusek	0.75
    Bill Bray	3.00
    Donnie Joseph	0.50
    Nick Maset	3.00
    Ryan Hanigan	2.05
    Devin Mesoraco	0.60
    Joey Votto	19.00
    H. Rod     	0.50
    Zach Cozart	0.60
    Todd Frazier	0.60
    Juan Francisco	0.60
    Neftali Soto	0.50
    Denis Phipps	0.50
    Drew Stubbs	3.00
    Jay Bruce	7.50
    Chris Heisey	1.50
    Who Knows	0.50
    	
    Injury add ons	2.00
    	
    	
    	
    Total Cost	79.1
    Now, extend Phillips at say $9 Million, extend Marshall at say $5 Million, pay annuities for Arroyo and Chapman at say $4 Million combined, add Madson at say $8 Million and voila, well over $100 Million. Even if I'm a little heavy on some of these, its right at around $100 Million. They could probably cut it some by dealing off a Masset and a Bray, but then there would be more holes to filll in the pen. Now if the Reds give up on the idea of bringing back Phillips and extend to the low 90's, they may be able to do it with a couple of deletions, but I really don't think they'll paint themselves into that corner. I don't see then signing anyone for more than 1 year unless its a real low dollar guy making $2 Million or less. Its just not happening. A trade where some of these $2 or $3 Million guys go the other way is more likely.

    They could go $8 to $10 Million on a guy for 2012, but the second year blows them out of the water.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  7. #36
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Accept or not, here are the numbers:

    Code:
    Johnny Cueto	7.40
    Mat Latos	5.00
    Bronson Arroyo	6.50
    Homer Bailey	2.75
    Mike Leake	3.00
    Aroldis Chapman	3.25
    Sam Lecure	1.50
    Jose Arredondo	3.00
    Logan Ondrusek	0.75
    Bill Bray	3.00
    Donnie Joseph	0.50
    Nick Maset	3.00
    Ryan Hanigan	2.05
    Devin Mesoraco	0.60
    Joey Votto	19.00
    H. Rod     	0.50
    Zach Cozart	0.60
    Todd Frazier	0.60
    Juan Francisco	0.60
    Neftali Soto	0.50
    Denis Phipps	0.50
    Drew Stubbs	3.00
    Jay Bruce	7.50
    Chris Heisey	1.50
    Who Knows	0.50
    	
    Injury add ons	2.00
    	
    	
    	
    Total Cost	79.1
    Now, extend Phillips at say $9 Million, extend Marshall at say $5 Million, pay annuities for Arroyo and Chapman at say $4 Million combined, add Madson at say $8 Million and voila, well over $100 Million. Even if I'm a little heavy on some of these, its right at around $100 Million. They could probably cut it some by dealing off a Masset and a Bray, but then there would be more holes to filll in the pen. Now if the Reds give up on the idea of bringing back Phillips and extend to the low 90's, they may be able to do it with a couple of deletions, but I really don't think they'll paint themselves into that corner. I don't see then signing anyone for more than 1 year unless its a real low dollar guy making $2 Million or less. Its just not happening. A trade where some of these $2 or $3 Million guys go the other way is more likely.

    They could go $8 to $10 Million on a guy for 2012, but the second year blows them out of the water.
    If the Reds don't become a winner, Votto is gone. They can defer money for Votto, he may accept that. Maybe if Arroyo has a good year, they can dump his salary. There may be other ways to create the payroll room to pay him a fair price.

    But he won't stay because the Reds outbid the Yanks or Red Sox. They won't outbid them or others.

    You want Votto? First, win.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2011 at 08:13 PM.

  8. #37
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I
    Madson at $8 million per or slightly more for three years is much less in the aggregate than the Reds paid Cordero to close.
    .
    I agree 100% here.

    Supposedly, 5 million/year for Cordero is ok.
    If this is the case, why not do 8 million for Madson (who is a heck of a lot better).

    If Madson will take 8 million/year.. let's do it.
    I'm willing to skimp on LF/utility INF to get it done.
    Supposedly, the Reds have around 10 million left of payroll to spend.
    I'd be willing to give 10/year to Madson, if this is the case.

    I'm not going to get too worked up on this yet, as the offseason is not over.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #38
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Who of these do you think the Reds could get on a minor league deal:

    Conor Jackson
    Ryan Ludwick
    Luke Scott
    Ronny Cedeno
    Jorge Cantu

  10. #39
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Not that the Reds might be in on any others, but here's a Rosecrans pieces on who is still out there.

    http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbsspor...97882/34570693
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  11. #40
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    mlbtraderumors.com free agent tracker: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012-mlb-free-agents

    Would you sign Aardsma to a minor league deal? He's coming off an injury, and I assume that's why no team has signed him.

    I'm not interested in Todd Coffey, but he's still unsigned.

    Rich Harden. He'd be my long man. He still brings the heat, and could really unload as a reliever. And then fill in if someone gets hurt. Still unsigned.

    He's getting old, but I'm still surprised Ibanez hasn't been signed.

    Scott Kazmir? Minor league deal?

    Jason Kendall? More catching depth?

    Brad Lidge? Scott Linebrink? Minor league deals?

    Damaso Marte? Isn't he coming off injury but was dominant at one time?

    Chad Qualls? Arthur Rhodes?

    A bunch of other famous named players still available too. Alot of it has to do with age and the fact that they aren't willing to take a cheap salary at this point in their careers. Probably going to be alot of forced retirements come Spring.

  12. #41
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
    Latest On Roy Oswalt
    By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 25 at 10:35pm CST]
    10:35pm: The Cardinals made a bid approaching $5MM on Oswalt weeks ago but that deal is not likely to happen, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss predicts that the Rangers will win the bidding on Oswalt with $2-3MM more and other perks.

  13. #42
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Gallen5862 View Post
    Strauss predicts that the Rangers will win the bidding on Oswalt with $2-3MM more and other perks.
    Ouch. Nick Masset money.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  14. #43
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Jeez, I can't believe someone is going to get that good of a bargain for Roy Oswalt. I know SP is not a need for the Reds following the Latos trade (heck, there are six legit starters to pick from as is with Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo and Chapman) but I still would like to see the Reds sign RO for 1-year if all it takes is about $6-7M. That's a heck of a bargain. And if he happens to get injured, it's not like it completely cripples you. High reward, relatively low risk.

    It won't be "the bargain of the offseason" since that title belongs to Ryan Madson ... but it will be close.

  15. #44
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    Ouch. Nick Masset money.
    I think they meant an additional $2M to $3M over the $5M the Cardinals were offering.
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  16. #45
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    Re: Remaining unsigned free agents

    Remember...we can never have enough starting pitching. I hope that Walt and Bob realize this, especially since it appears that Oswalt is willing to sign a one year deal and it appears to be fairly reasonable. It also appears that he wants to stay close to his home. Which Cincy does fit that mold as well as the other teams involved. Remember....we can never have enough starting pitching. Especially starting pitching that is of the caliber of Oswalt.


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