....The other thing to remember is that eventually Bob will sell the franchise.
As franchise value goes up, then theoretically Bob's ability to spend on payroll should be able to go up as well even if he is running at a loss.
Just for example.
Carl buys the reds for 10 million. Runs them as a break even franchise that loses more than it wins for 10 years and then sells them for 19 million. Carl has made 9 million over 10 years.
Augie buys his franchise for 10 million and runs them at a financial loss for a couple years but produces winning teams. Winning teams draw more fans and sell more expensive broadcast rights. At the end of 10 years Augie sells his team for 109 million while losing 15 million in payroll over the first 5 years. Augie has made 95 million dollars.
Yeah, I pulled the numbers out of thin air, but numbers like that exist and I know which type of owner the reds have had for years. So long that we are know used to it.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
I'd take a chance on Andruw Jones. I've saying that for a while now.
I think a Votto extension is worth the cost at pretty much any price since it is very difficult (if not impossible) to get the same value per dollar a Votto is going to provide.
I wouldn't mind a Phillips extension, but I don't really want to go beyond 2014 and I don't really know if he's worth more than $10,000,000 considering how his range will diminish over the contract.
Marshall is one of the top relievers in baseball. I have a hard time knowing how much his 75 innings a year are worth. If you look at simply WAR, you can say 2.5, but when you think about how important those innings are compared to others since you have less chances to get the W, then you could say even more.
I'm sure Walt has a better idea than all of us through his conversations with Bob what the budget will look like in 2012, 2013 & 2014. If it is 85 in 2012, 90 in 2013 & 95 in 2014, I do think we have enough money to sign Madson to a 3 year - 27 million dollar deal. If it is 85 in 2012, 86 in 2013 & 87 in 2014, I can see not signing Madson so we can attempt to re-sign Votto.
Accept or not, here are the numbers:
Now, extend Phillips at say $9 Million, extend Marshall at say $5 Million, pay annuities for Arroyo and Chapman at say $4 Million combined, add Madson at say $8 Million and voila, well over $100 Million. Even if I'm a little heavy on some of these, its right at around $100 Million. They could probably cut it some by dealing off a Masset and a Bray, but then there would be more holes to filll in the pen. Now if the Reds give up on the idea of bringing back Phillips and extend to the low 90's, they may be able to do it with a couple of deletions, but I really don't think they'll paint themselves into that corner. I don't see then signing anyone for more than 1 year unless its a real low dollar guy making $2 Million or less. Its just not happening. A trade where some of these $2 or $3 Million guys go the other way is more likely.Code:Johnny Cueto 7.40 Mat Latos 5.00 Bronson Arroyo 6.50 Homer Bailey 2.75 Mike Leake 3.00 Aroldis Chapman 3.25 Sam Lecure 1.50 Jose Arredondo 3.00 Logan Ondrusek 0.75 Bill Bray 3.00 Donnie Joseph 0.50 Nick Maset 3.00 Ryan Hanigan 2.05 Devin Mesoraco 0.60 Joey Votto 19.00 H. Rod 0.50 Zach Cozart 0.60 Todd Frazier 0.60 Juan Francisco 0.60 Neftali Soto 0.50 Denis Phipps 0.50 Drew Stubbs 3.00 Jay Bruce 7.50 Chris Heisey 1.50 Who Knows 0.50 Injury add ons 2.00 Total Cost 79.1
They could go $8 to $10 Million on a guy for 2012, but the second year blows them out of the water.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
If the Reds don't become a winner, Votto is gone. They can defer money for Votto, he may accept that. Maybe if Arroyo has a good year, they can dump his salary. There may be other ways to create the payroll room to pay him a fair price.
But he won't stay because the Reds outbid the Yanks or Red Sox. They won't outbid them or others.
You want Votto? First, win.
Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2011 at 08:13 PM.
I agree 100% here.
Supposedly, 5 million/year for Cordero is ok.
If this is the case, why not do 8 million for Madson (who is a heck of a lot better).
If Madson will take 8 million/year.. let's do it.
I'm willing to skimp on LF/utility INF to get it done.
Supposedly, the Reds have around 10 million left of payroll to spend.
I'd be willing to give 10/year to Madson, if this is the case.
I'm not going to get too worked up on this yet, as the offseason is not over.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Who of these do you think the Reds could get on a minor league deal:
Conor Jackson
Ryan Ludwick
Luke Scott
Ronny Cedeno
Jorge Cantu
Not that the Reds might be in on any others, but here's a Rosecrans pieces on who is still out there.
http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbsspor...97882/34570693
“In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"
The Baseball Emporium - Books & Things.
The Baseball Bookstore
http://tsc-sales.com/
http://tscsales.blogspot.com/
http://silverscreenbooks.com/
mlbtraderumors.com free agent tracker: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012-mlb-free-agents
Would you sign Aardsma to a minor league deal? He's coming off an injury, and I assume that's why no team has signed him.
I'm not interested in Todd Coffey, but he's still unsigned.
Rich Harden. He'd be my long man. He still brings the heat, and could really unload as a reliever. And then fill in if someone gets hurt. Still unsigned.
He's getting old, but I'm still surprised Ibanez hasn't been signed.
Scott Kazmir? Minor league deal?
Jason Kendall? More catching depth?
Brad Lidge? Scott Linebrink? Minor league deals?
Damaso Marte? Isn't he coming off injury but was dominant at one time?
Chad Qualls? Arthur Rhodes?
A bunch of other famous named players still available too. Alot of it has to do with age and the fact that they aren't willing to take a cheap salary at this point in their careers. Probably going to be alot of forced retirements come Spring.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Latest On Roy Oswalt
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 25 at 10:35pm CST]
10:35pm: The Cardinals made a bid approaching $5MM on Oswalt weeks ago but that deal is not likely to happen, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss predicts that the Rangers will win the bidding on Oswalt with $2-3MM more and other perks.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
Jeez, I can't believe someone is going to get that good of a bargain for Roy Oswalt. I know SP is not a need for the Reds following the Latos trade (heck, there are six legit starters to pick from as is with Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo and Chapman) but I still would like to see the Reds sign RO for 1-year if all it takes is about $6-7M. That's a heck of a bargain. And if he happens to get injured, it's not like it completely cripples you. High reward, relatively low risk.
It won't be "the bargain of the offseason" since that title belongs to Ryan Madson ... but it will be close.
“In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"
The Baseball Emporium - Books & Things.
The Baseball Bookstore
http://tsc-sales.com/
http://tscsales.blogspot.com/
http://silverscreenbooks.com/
Remember...we can never have enough starting pitching. I hope that Walt and Bob realize this, especially since it appears that Oswalt is willing to sign a one year deal and it appears to be fairly reasonable. It also appears that he wants to stay close to his home. Which Cincy does fit that mold as well as the other teams involved. Remember....we can never have enough starting pitching. Especially starting pitching that is of the caliber of Oswalt.
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