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Thread: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Getting ready to break down Latos on Clubhouse Confidential (SABR related show) right now (5:55 AM EST).
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 12-30-2011 at 05:58 AM.
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Basically just looked inside the numbers (what they call throwing them in the Shredder) more than the typical broadcasts (as they tend to do on this show) to see what the move might do to his numbers. And looked like he could end up with a bump in HR though his HR/FB % has came down as of late despite a slight downtick in GB%. In other words he gave up more non groundballs in '11 but gave up less HR's in the process, sounds like he might just be getting it.

    The numbers:

    Petco 2nd least HR's in baseball in '11 - 100 (Behind AT&T in S.F.)
    GABP most in the NL - 209 HR's

    Home V Road splits virtually identical except ERA itself. (WHIP, OPP. OBP, OPP. Slg. all within .003 of each other)

    His HR/FB% has come down every season so far.

    '09 10.8 + 36.1 GB%
    '10 8.0 + 44.7 GB%
    '11 7.3 + 42.8 GB%

    (2011 MLB avg. 9.8% HR/FB%)

    Showed his K/9 and BB/9 which were down a bit from '10 but still stellar at 8.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
    Something they didn't discuss that I have been thinking about is sure his HR% could spike but his other XBH's should come down, no? And with a guy with his quality of stuff it would be a might bit tougher to get lucky and hit one well enough to drive it out of a park than to bloop one down the line for a double or one in the gap for a triple. What do you guys think? Am I reaching here or is this a realistic differential people are not thinking about? Enough to offset any uptick in HR's.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 12-30-2011 at 06:27 AM.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Basically just looked inside the numbers (what they call throwing them in the Shredder) more than the typical broadcasts (as they tend to do on this show) to see what the move might do to his numbers. And looked like he could end up with a bump in HR though his HR/FB % has came down as of late despite a slight downtick in GB%. In other words he gave up more non groundballs in '11 but gave up less HR's in the process, sounds like he might just be getting it.



    Something they didn't discuss that I have been thinking about is sure his HR% could spike but his other XBH's should come down, no? And with a guy with his quality of stuff it would be a might bit tougher to get lucky and hit one well enough to drive it out of a park than to bloop one down the line for a double or one in the gap for a triple. What do you guys think? Am I reaching here or is this a realistic differential people are not thinking about? Enough to offset any uptick in HR's.
    I think he will have an uptick in HR and some of that will simply be other extra base hits converting to HR, but some will be fly outs becoming HR as well. Overall, I think the impact will be minimal. Just a SWAG, but maybe an increase in his ERA by about .25 or so (5 or 6 runs over 200 IP). The biggest concern with a guy coming from a pitchers park to a place like GABP, IMO, is the BB/9. In a place like Petco, a pitcher can be pretty confident and throw it over the plate without the fear that less than perfect contact will go out of the park. In GABP, guys don't even have to "get all of it" to hit it out sometimes. Some pitchers get "spooked" by this when they pitch in a place like that repeatedly and start nibbling too much and end up walking a lot more guys. If Latos avoids that, he'll be a guy with a low 3's ERA IMO. If he starts walking guys, I'm guessing he could end up being more of a high 3's low 4's guy.
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    Member dunner13's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    I think the biggest thing that will offset moving to GABP for Latos is his age. He just turned 24 this offseason, as he continues to mature and grow as a pitcher hes only going to get better and better. Realistically Latos is probably 3 years from his peak year as a pitcher which is pretty exciting when you consider how good he has already pitched.

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Reds got a future Cy Young winner. And that's hard to acquire. Seriously.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Reds got a future Cy Young winner. And that's hard to acquire. Seriously.
    That may be true, but they had to give up four World Series MVPs in order to get him and Marshall.
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93284

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That may be true, but they had to give up four World Series MVPs in order to get him and Marshall.
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93284
    LOL, I can't figure out if that guy is serious or being sarcastic.
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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    LOL, I can't figure out if that guy is serious or being sarcastic.
    Here are a couple more classics from him:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92265
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93061

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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Be nice.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Thus his team was punished

    Long live punishment
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    The base you want to acquire is home.

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: MLB TV Shredder Latos, Now

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That may be true, but they had to give up four World Series MVPs in order to get him and Marshall.
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93284
    Yeah, I really take offense to his predictions about the MVP's.

    Everyone knows that the recently acquired Jerry Gil, by Toronto, will be the 2014 MVP.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread


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