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Thread: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

  1. #16
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I get that you expect big things from him, but I am not sure a guy who has hit .300+ for the last 4 seasons is going to truly be a breakout type of guy. I hope you are right though that he makes us think twice about extending Phillips.
    Ah, yes I suppose took "breakout" to mean knocking on the Reds MLB doorstep.

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  3. #17
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Juan Duran and Yorman will explode this yr.
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7

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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Is Drew Cisco expected back this year? If so, I'll go with him...
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Daniel Renken and Yorman Rodriguez

  6. #20
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    I'll go with Tony Cingrani. I'm really interest to see how well he stretches out.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #21
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    This question is always too hard for me. Too many cases to make.

    But I guess I'd throw Phipps out there first. Some would say that his breakout was last year, and that's true on the statistical level, but we've now voted-in our top 24 prospects (including the five who were traded) and he hasn't gotten a sniff. So I'd submit that he's still breakout material in our context.

    I like the Waldrop vote. He's an athlete who seems to be able to play baseball. Showed a lot of extra-base ability last year.

    Don't know what Jacob Johnson's issue is, but I'm hoping he can bounce back in a big way. At one point--when Lotzkar was still on the shelf--he was my top-rated starting pitcher prospect in the system.

    And Brandon Dailey. I thought he kind of broke out last year, as much as a guy can in just over 200 PA, but he hasn't yet been acknowledged for it. I don't believe he's even been on the ballot yet for our top 40.

    I'd add Donald Lutz, but I think the word is getting out on him.

  8. #22
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'll go with Tony Cingrani. I'm really interest to see how well he stretches out.
    Kind of like with Henry Rodriguez.... I know he isn't a Top 10 prospect, but can he really break out after posting a 1.75 ERA with 80/6 K/BB in 51 innings?

  9. #23
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Kind of like with Henry Rodriguez.... I know he isn't a Top 10 prospect, but can he really break out after posting a 1.75 ERA with 80/6 K/BB in 51 innings?
    Doing that in an age appropriate league for 140 innings and I'd consider it a breakout.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #24
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Doing that in an age appropriate league for 140 innings and I'd consider it a breakout.
    Pitchers don't exactly comply to age appropriate leagues like hitters do since pitchers mature much differently than hitters do. Hitters, generally, follow a nice bell curve of progression. Pitchers don't.

  11. #25
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Kind of like with Henry Rodriguez.... I know he isn't a Top 10 prospect, but can he really break out after posting a 1.75 ERA with 80/6 K/BB in 51 innings?
    Does a player have to rise out of the scrap heap of futility to be considered a breakout prospect? I figure Cingrani's still hasn't pitched above rookie ball and we're all still guessing what his stuff will be like as a full season starter. I would definitely call going from intriguing arm to big time starting pitching prospect a breakout of sorts.

  12. #26
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Does a player have to rise out of the scrap heap of futility to be considered a breakout prospect? I figure Cingrani's still hasn't pitched above rookie ball and we're all still guessing what his stuff will be like as a full season starter. I would definitely call going from intriguing arm to big time starting pitching prospect a breakout of sorts.
    Break out of the scrap heap, no. Heck, the guy I picked hit .287/.336/.482 two seasons ago. But when Henry Rodriguez hits .320/.372/.469 and is picked as a breakout guy, it's confusing. When a pitcher throws up 51 absolutely Pedro Martinez like innings, regardless of the level, it's confusing. At least to me.

    When I think of a breakout type, I think of someone who has plenty of work to do. Or someone who is coming off of a bad season.

    Cingrani was the 2nd highest rated pitching prospect in his league this year by BA. The league was down in general this season, but still. A lefty with dominant numbers and strong scouting reports doesn't fit what I think of when I think of breakout prospects, even if he does go out next year and throw 130 outstanding innings as a starter.

  13. #27
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Break out of the scrap heap, no. Heck, the guy I picked hit .287/.336/.482 two seasons ago. But when Henry Rodriguez hits .320/.372/.469 and is picked as a breakout guy, it's confusing. When a pitcher throws up 51 absolutely Pedro Martinez like innings, regardless of the level, it's confusing. At least to me.

    When I think of a breakout type, I think of someone who has plenty of work to do. Or someone who is coming off of a bad season.

    Cingrani was the 2nd highest rated pitching prospect in his league this year by BA. The league was down in general this season, but still. A lefty with dominant numbers and strong scouting reports doesn't fit what I think of when I think of breakout prospects, even if he does go out next year and throw 130 outstanding innings as a starter.
    Wouldn't you agree that a guy who's never started outside of 50 some innings in rookie ball could see his stock explode if he maintains his stuff for a full season and dominates Dayton? I mean you had him ranked 19th on your site before all the trades.

    Not making a case for Rodriguez though...not sure what people are expecting out of that guy that would constitute a breakout.

  14. #28
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    This is the year David Vidal enters the Red Top Ten prospect status. He'll go 320/370/500 and play a sparkling hot corner in A+ and AA combined. Consequently, Vidal will garner Top 100 status-- albeit lower level-- in many prospect lists by the end of the year.

    This is the year JC Sulburan makes a case for himself as a viable starting prospect and a #3 starter in the big leagues, lowering his ERA to the mid 3s and raising his perception among scouts across the game. His stuff will be compared to current Red, Johnny Cueto and found as good. He, too, will garner consideration on many prospect lists.

    This is the year that Henry Rodriguez will finally be noticed outside of Red country, as he will once again put up an 800+ OPS season, this time between AA and AAA. He'll be 22 this season and make his first foray into the major leagues. A Brandon Phillips extension will be debated with Rodriguez's ceiling and HRod will take Phillips' spot in Cincinnati in 2013 full time. He'll make the Top 50 lists of many prospect publications.

    Most of all, this is the year that Billy Hamilton establishes himself as a bona fide star in the minor leagues, OPSing in the 800 range but adding power and learning how to bunt. His obp jumps 30 points as he flirts with a 400 obp for awhile until cooling off. His new-found power is more modest, but still ends up over 400 for the season. We continue to hear vague questions about his defense, his arm, even his range as a SS and grumblings about moving him to 2B or CF, but no one is ever named as the source. Simply an unnamed scout. As a result, Hamilton is on every prospect magazine's short list of outstanding prospects for 2013, but questions are still there.

    Donald Lutz ends up with an OPS well over 900 in his short stint in Bakersfield and is then moved quickly to AA, where he doesn't hit quite as well. He still shows enough power and hit tool to be discussed as the possible heir apparent to Joey Votto should he decide to leave via free agency. Lutz could conceivably make a Top 100 list, but typically those lists aren't kind to 1B. He just misses, as a result.

    But the one true darkhorse minor league riser is Dominic D'Anna. He'll play all year in Bakersfield and go absolutely bat-poop crazy offensively, with a line of 300+/ 400+/ 500+/ 900+. He'll play both DH and 1B, primarily 1B after Lutz is transitioned to AA. He will also be mentioned among the Votto replacement candidates for 1B (along with Soto at AAA, who will hit well and with power, Lutz, and Robwert Maddox, who will also hit well in Dayton).
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  15. #29
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Wouldn't you agree that a guy who's never started outside of 50 some innings in rookie ball could see his stock explode if he maintains his stuff for a full season and dominates Dayton? I mean you had him ranked 19th on your site before all the trades.

    Not making a case for Rodriguez though...not sure what people are expecting out of that guy that would constitute a breakout.
    If he maintains his stuff for a full season, not really. The reason I ranked him where I did and the reason he was still available in the 3rd round despite that stuff, is that he is not a three pitch guy right now. I guess that leaves open that he could develop that third pitch and certainly improve his stock, but I just think that after the season he just had, which was flat out as dominating a season anyone has had in the Reds system for as long as I can remember, doesn't really make it a break out type of season.

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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Call me crazy... Sean Buckley. High OBP, good power, if he can cut down on the strike outs he could do some damage. I like his offense.
    Let's get weird!


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