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Thread: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

  1. #31
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    But the one true darkhorse minor league riser is Dominic D'Anna. He'll play all year in Bakersfield and go absolutely bat-poop crazy offensively, with a line of 300+/ 400+/ 500+/ 900+. He'll play both DH and 1B, primarily 1B after Lutz is transitioned to AA. He will also be mentioned among the Votto replacement candidates for 1B (along with Soto at AAA, who will hit well and with power, Lutz, and Robwert Maddox, who will also hit well in Dayton).
    D'Anna's a good call, Scrap. He was an all-star this year before getting hurt, at which point Lutz took the baton.

    I think the uptick in first basemen is one of the most significant developments in the Reds' farm system over the past couple years. For a while, after Votto ascended to Cincinnati, there wasn't much there. Not that it was such an important position, but a shortage of first basemen effectively translates into a shortage of power bats. The likes of Soto, Lutz, D'Anna (although his game isn't really power) and even Rhinehart have rectified that situation.

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  3. #32
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Drew Cisco.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  4. #33
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by NorrisHopper30 View Post
    Juan Duran and Yorman will explode this yr.
    If I could draw out an ideal 2012 scenario for both YRod and Duran it would be:

    1. Open the year in the Dayton OF and get off to good starts

    2. Be ready to make the move to Bakersfield by Memorial Day

    3. Be set to open 2013 in Pensacola
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-02-2012 at 10:22 PM.

  5. #34
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    nm

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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    If I could draw out an ideal 2012 scenario for both YRod and Duran it would be:

    1. Open the year in the Dayton OF and get off to good starts

    2. Be ready to make the move to Bakersfield by Memorial Day

    3. Be set to open 2013 in Pensacola
    One of the good things (perhaps the only good thing?) about Bakersfield is that prospects are going to hit. Because of that, I wouldn't mind giving both youngsters extended time in A+ ball just to pump up numbers and confidence. It could also serve to boost numbers so that they become prime trade chips, an important consideration for sure.

    Having said that, perhaps they need to be broken down first, then built up. In that case, I could see a return to Dayton to wake them up.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  7. #36
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    One of the good things (perhaps the only good thing?) about Bakersfield is that prospects are going to hit. Because of that, I wouldn't mind giving both youngsters extended time in A+ ball just to pump up numbers and confidence. It could also serve to boost numbers so that they become prime trade chips, an important consideration for sure.

    Having said that, perhaps they need to be broken down first, then built up. In that case, I could see a return to Dayton to wake them up.
    You know, for all of the good the California League was supposed to do for the hitters, only Henry Rodriguez and Yasmani Grandal actually did anything impressive at the level last season (for guys age appropriate - Eric Campbell destroyed the league, but was also 25).

  8. #37
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You know, for all of the good the California League was supposed to do for the hitters, only Henry Rodriguez and Yasmani Grandal actually did anything impressive at the level last season (for guys age appropriate - Eric Campbell destroyed the league, but was also 25).
    What does that say about Ryan Lamarre? You'd have thought a guy with his athletic ability and apparently decent contact skills could've bunted for 6 home runs in that park. Not a real auspicious start to his career if he's looking to be much more than a rangy 4th outfielder.

  9. #38
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    What does that say about Ryan Lamarre? You'd have thought a guy with his athletic ability and apparently decent contact skills could've bunted for 6 home runs in that park. Not a real auspicious start to his career if he's looking to be much more than a rangy 4th outfielder.
    He doesn't have decent contact rates. But his absolute lack of power is a real concern. He has some time to figure it out though. The rest of his game is solid.

  10. #39
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He doesn't have decent contact rates. But his absolute lack of power is a real concern. He has some time to figure it out though. The rest of his game is solid.
    I'm hoping he pulls a Sappelt and revamps his swing this off-season. There's just no reason a 6'2" 200lbs outfielder should have so much trouble putting a charge into the ball. On that note, I'm going out on a fragile limb and picking Lamarre as my breakout for 2012. Mark it down...lightly in #2 pencil.

  11. #40
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I'm hoping he pulls a Sappelt and revamps his swing this off-season. There's just no reason a 6'2" 200lbs outfielder should have so much trouble putting a charge into the ball. On that note, I'm going out on a fragile limb and picking Lamarre as my breakout for 2012. Mark it down...lightly in #2 pencil.
    I wanted to pick LaMarre. It seems like he's the perfect candidate in that if he finds some power he gets real interesting. But I just don't see any signs of it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    I still think my choice from last year, Mark Fleury, has a chance to open eyes. Also like Ryan Wright to step forward.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #42
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He doesn't have decent contact rates. But his absolute lack of power is a real concern. He has some time to figure it out though. The rest of his game is solid.
    When used to communicate quality or degree, absolute means perfect, finished, free from interpretation. So if Ryan LaMarre has a few scouts saying he has at least some power, you are mis-categorizing his scouting reports. If you wish to communicate more clearly, perhaps you could write "I think that Ryan LaMarre......" and that would make it clear who thought what.

  14. #43
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    When used to communicate quality or degree, absolute means perfect, finished, free from interpretation. So if Ryan LaMarre has a few scouts saying he has at least some power, you are mis-categorizing his scouting reports. If you wish to communicate more clearly, perhaps you could write "I think that Ryan LaMarre......" and that would make it clear who thought what.
    We're screwing around in a baseball forum, not writing a doctoral thesis.

  15. #44
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    When used to communicate quality or degree, absolute means perfect, finished, free from interpretation. So if Ryan LaMarre has a few scouts saying he has at least some power, you are mis-categorizing his scouting reports. If you wish to communicate more clearly, perhaps you could write "I think that Ryan LaMarre......" and that would make it clear who thought what.
    How about "Ryan LaMarre's absolute lack of power production..."?

  16. #45
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    Re: 2012 Breakout minor leaguer

    Tim Crabbe has a chance to take a step forward...good stuff and if he can improve his command, he will start to garner some attention.

    Chad Rogers is the true under-the-radar player with a chance to be something special. One of the better power arms in the org. 2011 in first year of pro ball out of junior college: 2.99 ERA, 24 BB, 72 SO in 69 IP, .227 opps avg. Had one bad outing that drove up his ERA when he allowed a grand slam. If he had not signed out of junior college, he would have come out as a junior in 2011 and scouts who saw him in Dayton this season said he would have been a 3rd-5th round draft pick with the way he was throwing the ball.

    Lets see what happens with Yorman. Issues are not going to go away, but he knows his act has worn thin and surely he comes out to play in 2012. Listening to the talk this week about Santonio Holmes with the Jets, I saw all that stuff in my own town last summer. I am going to back off a prediction I made in the fall when I said "no chance he starts in Bakersfield in 2012." I should have said, "no chance he deserves" to start in Bakersfield. I am a believer in the idea that players should earn their promotions and that you send the wrong message to all your prospects when a guy who comes in and dogs it for three months, gets sent home for the last two months, and then the next season, catches back up with all the guys who were working their butts off all season. It is not a good message, and it reinforces the sense of entitlement that caused all the problems to begin with. But some believe they will start him out with Griffey in '12 rather than going back to play for Delino again after all the problems of '11.

    Donald Lutz had his breakout year in 2011, but if he improves as much in 2012 as he did last year, look out.

    Some other names that are longshots but have something: Jamie Walczak has big league stuff on some nights. He barely pitched before turning pro. If he had stayed in Dayton all year in 2011, he might have put up some crazy numbers. He is over-aged but is a converted outfielder. Long, long-shot, but keep an eye on him if he even makes a club out of spring training. He throws hard, has a nasty hammer, and can totally outmatch people when he has his command.

    Daniel Tuttle has one of the better arms in the org and is still young. Maybe the suspension will have a positive effect.

    I have heard that this Bryson Smith kid really impressed people as a hitter and center fielder. He was a late round pick, but the Reds have gotten some good players in that range in recent years, starting with Daniel Dorn.

    When you look at the stats in the lower and mid levels, keep a couple things in mind. The league average for players in Dayton in 2011 (Midwest League), was .250 with a league average ERA of 3.77. Then in Bakersfield (California League), the league averages were .277 and 4.89. So there is a 25-30 point jump in batting average for you if you are a median player, and more than a 1.00 jump in ERA.

    With the new Double-A club in Pensacola (without knowing the dimensions of the new park), expect it to be more pitcher friendly than Carolina was for this reason: If you know that climate or have watched a game on the gulf coast (I have watched hundreds), you know that starting about June 1, the ball just gets knocked down in that humid air. You have to absolutely crush a ball to hit it out. When they start getting into those 93 degree nights with 70 percent humidity, as you get almost every night in that area in the summer, the ball will not carry. The Mobile team, an hour up the coast, usually will have one or two guys reach double figures in homers with the team leader often around 16.
    Last edited by redsof72; 01-05-2012 at 11:23 AM.


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