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Thread: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.
    We also hate kittens and babies and live in our mother's basement.

    Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

    And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant
    Nobody disagrees with you -- steals can add real value to a player's production. They just should be treated in proportion to their actual value and in the broader context of runs added/lost in total on the bases.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    To me, personally, stolen bases is an UNDERRATED stat. Sure, the argument is that a single +SB does not equal a double, due to inability to drive someone in with that SB. But its the same as the argument between a single and a walk. With a runner on 2B, a single scores him, a walk does not. Yet, walking is the most important stat in sabremetrics and on this website.

    Now, if a guy is getting thrown out a good percentage, I agree its worthless. But to say 55 steals isn't worth looking at is a flat out lie. In a time where offense is declining and pitching is on the rise, small is going to find its way back in the game, as you can see with the NL regaining momentum vs. the AL. Stealing bases IS small ball, and while it can lose you some runs, if managed right, and can steal you many many more runs.

    And yes, I just had about 50 different arguments in that one piece. /rant
    dont bring up RBI or you'll be tarred and feathered then run out of town

  4. #18
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    I think we do tend to equate plate discipline to the sabremetrician viewpoint and stolen bases to the traditional. My question is, why not use both?

    Stolen bases are remarkably similar to walks, IMO, because both are about the balance of patience and aggressiveness.

    If you are too patient, you tend to strike out an absolute ton (i.e., 2011 versions of Stubbs and Dunn), thereby harming your team's offense. (As you don't get hits nor do you put the ball in play.) OTOH, a player who's too aggressive tends to really hurt the team offensively if he's not killing the ball (i.e., 2010 Gomes, cleanup Phillips). There's a trade-off there.

    The same can be said for the stolen base. A guy who steals bases at around a 70% clip helps the team with his legs. That percentage will go down as teams struggle to score runs. Great runners (Larkin and Eric Davis, for example) really help the team, much like those with great patience do. Hamilton, so far, seems to be firmly in that great runner echelon.

    I do agree that many posters on Redszone tend to pooh-pooh the stolen base and its effect on scoring. That's likely (again, IMO) because they've grown up or learned about baseball during a time when runs are as cheap as a ten dollar hooker.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  5. #19
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    Seems really strange to have one list Yorman as the #3 prospect in the system and then the other list to not even have him in the top 10.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Seems really strange to have one list Yorman as the #3 prospect in the system and then the other list to not even have him in the top 10.
    Everyone loves the tools. A wide variety of opinions on everything else he brings.

  7. #21
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: BA's Updated Reds Top 10 List

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    We also hate kittens and babies and live in our mother's basement.
    Sure took you a long time to fess up to that one


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