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Thread: 2012 MLB Draft order

  1. #76
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I don't think the top 10 will change too much at this point, unless there is an injury. Maybe a player or two.
    Players who drop tend to do so because of injury, but signability is often a major concern, too. Yasmani Grandal 'dropped' to #12 mainly for that reason.

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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    The question I have recently been asking is who are the kids from Texas and the Western States? The Reds seem to trust those scouts. Fried, Giolito, Hawkins, Appel, Marrero, Gallo and Wacha are the first round types that are in those areas. The did take Alonso and Grandal out of Miami in recent years, but those guys aren't here anymore either. I really like Corey Seager. He might be a tough sign though.

    What does the new CBA mean to this signing process for these guys?
    From the descriptions I have read, I really like Seager as well. Power to all fields, advanced hitting approach, likely to move quickly, currently at SS but seen as 3B.

    I think the new CBA will be interesting to watch. I count 9 teams with more to spend than the Reds and 13 with less. The others have about the same. The bonus allowances will certainly play in the selection strategy. Is the draft deep? Do you back off an expensive first round choice in order to spend on supplemental and other rounds? On the other hand, a team may elect to spend heavily on their top pick and risk not signing a supplemental or second rounder.

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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    From the descriptions I have read, I really like Seager as well. Power to all fields, advanced hitting approach, likely to move quickly, currently at SS but seen as 3B.

    I think the new CBA will be interesting to watch. I count 9 teams with more to spend than the Reds and 13 with less. The others have about the same. The bonus allowances will certainly play in the selection strategy. Is the draft deep? Do you back off an expensive first round choice in order to spend on supplemental and other rounds? On the other hand, a team may elect to spend heavily on their top pick and risk not signing a supplemental or second rounder.
    I think your going to see a majority of players within the first 48 hours sign contracts. A ton of pre arrange deals and teams not drafting after the 20th round. Billy Beane said he doesnt see the point in drafting after the 20th round. If there is a player he liked that he would have taken in Round 30, he can just sign them as an undrafted free agent and not have anything count towards his money allowed total.

    Also, unless your a two way player, I see no reason in getting an advisor. A player like David Dahl will quickly know what he is going to be offered and his family can weight the amount of dollars vs a free ride to Auburn.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Keith law's First Mock. Its getting serious:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2613371.html

    Would rather see Addison go to the Braves, Reds, or Rays.
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  6. #80
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    That would be Jim Callis, not Keith Law.

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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    With everyone in our rotation Under contract for multiple years, and 4 of our 5 best pitching prospects in AA (or very close to being in AA), I'm not sure why we're looking at college arms like Heaney and Wacha. I'd much prefer a college OF or 3B or a high upside HS player (pitcher or hitter).

    It would be one thing if a college pitcher who is a top 5 prospect in the draft falls to 14 (hence clearly the BPA), but why target guys that are supposed to go in the 15-20 range and there is no clear need for them in the system right now?
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    With everyone in our rotation Under contract for multiple years, and 4 of our 5 best pitching prospects in AA (or very close to being in AA), I'm not sure why we're looking at college arms like Heaney and Wacha. I'd much prefer a college OF or 3B or a high upside HS player (pitcher or hitter).

    It would be one thing if a college pitcher who is a top 5 prospect in the draft falls to 14 (hence clearly the BPA), but why target guys that are supposed to go in the 15-20 range and there is no clear need for them in the system right now?
    Some had Wacha in the running to go #1 overall a few weeks ago. It's a cliche that you can never have enough pitching, and it's true.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Callis mentions five names the Reds could be interested in, and the only one of the five I really like is Clemson 3B Richie Shaffer. I've already given my take on the college pitchers he mentions, and I don't want Tyler Naquin- a college OF without a lot of power who is not a plus-plus defender in CF. His scouting report reminds me of Ryan LaMarre- no thanks at 14.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Some had Wacha in the running to go #1 overall a few weeks ago. It's a cliche that you can never have enough pitching, and it's true.
    I'd be fine with drafting a pitcher -especially a high-upside one from HS. I just don't want to use a first round pick because a pitcher is "close to the majors." Seems to me that Zimmer, Appel and Gausman are the college pitchers with the most upside. Gioloto and Fried are the interesting HS arms (to be considered at 14). Any one of those five I'd be fine with, but I don't see the point in putting a premium on a pitcher just because he's close to the big leagues, especially when evaluating the current state of our system.

    If we're going to put a premium on a player because he is close to contributing, I'd prefer to do it on a 3B or OF, which would seem to be the biggest organizational needs for the next few years- which is one of the main reasons I'd be happy with Richie Shaffer (and Victor Roache in the sandwich round).
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    If we're going to put a premium on a player because he is close to contributing, I'd prefer to do it on a 3B or OF, which would seem to be the biggest organizational needs for the next few years- which is one of the main reasons I'd be happy with Richie Shaffer (and Victor Roache in the sandwich round).
    It's not that Wacha is close to contributing, it's that he's a good pitcher. Keep in mind, too, that someone -- I think Goldstein from BP -- recently said it could be the worst group of college position players in the last 20 years. If you give that any credence, I don't know why you'd want Shaffer or Roache over Wacha. Reds already have some solid 3B prospects in their early 20s (HRod, Vidal), and guys like Lamarre, Billy H and Lutz are candidates to play OF in Cincy within a couple years.

    It's a mistake to discount pitching on the basis of what the system looks like at any one time, IMO.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's not that Wacha is close to contributing, it's that he's a good pitcher. Keep in mind, too, that someone -- I think Goldstein from BP -- recently said it could be the worst group of college position players in the last 20 years. If you give that any credence, I don't know why you'd want Shaffer or Roache over Wacha. Reds already have some solid 3B prospects in their early 20s (HRod, Vidal), and guys like Lamarre, Billy H and Lutz are candidates to play OF in Cincy within a couple years.

    It's a mistake to discount pitching on the basis of what the system looks like at any one time, IMO.
    Not discounting pitching, I just prefer longer term, higher upside picks (including pitchers) unless you're really trying to fulfill an immediate need. As successful as he's been, I prefer picks like Stephenson even to picks like Leake- especially at this point in time for the Reds. It is this part of Wacha's scouting report which makes me hesitant:
    With two plus pitches and command, Wacha has a chance to be a solid number three starter. With an added SL that can be relied upon regularly, slim potential to be a low-end number two starter.
    I had a similar debate to this on RedsZone the year after Leake was drafted, as I had no interest in "that year's Leake" Alex Wimmers (who also had strong local ties). Read the thread below to find out how that worked out.

    I'm not saying I'd be very upset with Wacha or one of those college arms. I just think there might be better picks out there for the Reds at 14. We'll find out in three weeks. Given the very successful track record of this regime at drafting early, I will certainly defer to their judgement. But I'll keep my fingers crossed for Shaffer (same site has him as "one of the draft's best power bats; really impressive middle-of-the-order potential") or one of the HS kids like Correa, Hawkins, Gioloto or Fried- the latter two have #1 starter potential.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-11-2012 at 01:26 PM.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    I had a similar debate to this on RedsZone the year after Leake was drafted, as I had no interest in "that year's Leake" Alex Wimmers (who also had strong local ties). Read the thread below to find out how that worked out.
    We've all been "right" and "wrong" so many times it doesn't help to trot out a particular hit or miss, IMO.

    Given the very successful track record of this regime at drafting early, I will certainly defer to their judgement. But I'll keep my fingers crossed for Shaffer or one of the HS kids like Correa, Hawkins, Gioloto or Fried.
    All you can do, really. I'm just glad they've got a couple of sandwich rounders. A personal favorite of mine for one of those picks is Murphy, the catcher from Buffalo. Would love to see them stock the system with one more promising backstop, now that Grandal is gone.
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Not discounting pitching, I just prefer longer term, higher upside picks (including pitchers) unless you're really trying to fulfill an immediate need. As successful as he's been, I prefer picks like Stephenson even to picks like Leake- especially at this point in time for the Reds. It is this part of Wacha's scouting report which makes me hesitant:

    I had a similar debate to this on RedsZone the year after Leake was drafted, as I had no interest in "that year's Leake" Alex Wimmers (who also had strong local ties). Read the thread below to find out how that worked out.

    I'm not saying I'd be very upset with Wacha or one of those college arms. I just think there might be better picks out there for the Reds at 14. We'll find out in three weeks. Given the very successful track record of this regime at drafting early, I will certainly defer to their judgement. But I'll keep my fingers crossed for Shaffer (same site has him as "one of the draft's best power bats; really impressive middle-of-the-order potential") or one of the HS kids like Correa, Hawkins, Gioloto or Fried- the latter two have #1 starter potential.
    I would tend to agree with you in that I would prefer high upside guys to close to ready high floor guys, especially now where most of the major league slots are locked up for a few years. Of the guys you mention Correa, Gioloto or Fried would be awesome. Realistically, Gioloto is the only one that might fall due to his injury and/or signability. Unfortunately if it is signability he probably will not sign with the Reds, but who knows.

    Zach Eflin might be an interesting prospect depending on how he pitches the next few weeks.

  15. #89
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I'd be fine with drafting a pitcher -especially a high-upside one from HS. I just don't want to use a first round pick because a pitcher is "close to the majors." Seems to me that Zimmer, Appel and Gausman are the college pitchers with the most upside. Gioloto and Fried are the interesting HS arms (to be considered at 14). Any one of those five I'd be fine with, but I don't see the point in putting a premium on a pitcher just because he's close to the big leagues, especially when evaluating the current state of our system.

    If we're going to put a premium on a player because he is close to contributing, I'd prefer to do it on a 3B or OF, which would seem to be the biggest organizational needs for the next few years- which is one of the main reasons I'd be happy with Richie Shaffer (and Victor Roache in the sandwich round).
    I just looked through Callis' mock and I was about to post pretty much the exact same thing. Wacha does nothing for the Reds that they don't already have. Sure, starting pitching depth is great, but I don't want a guy who has two plus pitches, but neither of them is a breaking ball.

    If Richie Shaffer is there, I really want the Reds to take him. The only thing I question about him is his ability to stick at 3B. Courtney Hawkins would also be preferrable to Michael Wacha (I do realize Hawkins was off the board by the time the Reds picked in this mock).

  16. #90
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    I'm a little bit concerned Richie Shaffer is only in his first year as a third baseman. Was a great defensive first baseman as a frosh/soph at Clemson, but this is his first season playing 3B. Definitely appears to have a plus bat though. If he has proven to be a good defensive third baseman, I'm all for it. I like his size too at 6-3, 205.


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