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Thread: 2012 MLB Draft order

  1. #166
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think you are confusing "can't hit" with "couldn't hit enough to play another position". There is a big difference between can't hit, like say Miguel Rojas, and can't hit enough to play another position, like say Zack Cozart.
    No, I'm not. The original quote was that high end SS prospects have as much trade value as high end pitching prospects. If tey can rake like Tulowitzki or Profar is now, that may be true. However, Zack Cozart never had a ton of trade value, just like DiDi Gregorius now, because he couldn't hit enough to play anywhere else. In this day in age, if a prospect doesn't have the potential to OPS .750 or .800 in the big leagues, he won't have a ton of trade value. The one exception to that may be catcher.

    I'll be surprised if Marrero hits better than Cozart did in the minors, and Cozart never carried premium trade value.
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  3. #167
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Elvis Andrus was a prime component of the Teixeira deal. Alcides Escobar was a prime piece of the Grienke deal. Hak-Ju Lee was a central component in the Garza deal. Those are just off the top of my head.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #168
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Elvis Andrus was a prime component of the Teixeira deal. Alcides Escobar was a prime piece of the Grienke deal. Hak-Ju Lee was a central component in the Garza deal. Those are just off the top of my head.
    None of those guys were "polished" light-hitting college SS drafted in the first two rounds. They were more like Jurickson Profar (or Antonio Perez) at the time they were dealt, as all of them were traded as teenagers (or within a month or two of ther 20th birthday).

    It should also be noted that all of those guys were just one of four players traded for the player you mentioned.

    Cozart is a better comp for Marrero.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-26-2012 at 02:04 PM.
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  5. #169
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    None of those guys were "polished" light-hitting college SS drafted in the first two rounds. They were more like Jurickson Profar (or Antonio Perez) at the time they were dealt, as all of them were traded as teenagers (or within a month or two of ther 20th birthday).

    Cozart is a better comp for Marrero.
    Maybe they should draft Marrero and trade Didi or Hamilton.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #170
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maybe they should draft Marrero and trade Didi or Hamilton.
    If they could get something significant for DiDi, I'd trade him in a minute.
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  7. #171
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    If they could get something significant for DiDi, I'd trade him in a minute.
    A parallel may be that Didi is Travis Wood. Hamilton is Zach Stewart and Marrero is Mike Leake. Don't know, but there is precendent drafting one, holding one and dealing one.

    Don't know much about Marrero, but if he's considered a top 15 pick, he must have more value than we may think.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #172
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    So the Reds are projected to take Michael Wacha with the 14th pick?

    I'd be alright with that.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  9. #173
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    I hope hope hope the Reds hit the nails this year because the system is solid but unexciting. They need a couple of star caliber players on the farm again.

    I was fooling around and put together a future team just of prospects from the farm and they aren't bad - you can name an everyday average ML player at realistic expectations for almost every position but absolutely none with realistic All Star caliber potential year in and out. Barnhart C, Soto 1B, Greene/Wright 2B, Gregorious SS, Rodriguez/Vidal 3B, Hamilton/LaMarre/Lutz OF, Lotzkar/Corcino/Cingrani/Sulburan/Johnson/Manno/Joseph/Rogers et al Pitching Staff.

    That of course, excepts Stephenson who hasn't pitched yet, and Amir Garrett, who has immense talent but is immensely raw, and hasn't played yet. Corcino is probably the highest projection in the farm after Stephenson, balancing how he's actually performed with his talent rating, while the highest talents rating wise have been dismal performers - enough so that I've almost written them off (Duran, Rodriguez), and Soto, who has slipped a lot this year. Outside of the flashy speed and excitement of Slidin' Billy the farm system is solidly dull.

    I'd love to see a slugger come along with true 40-50 homer potential. For the first time in twenty years I want to see a hitter picked first AND second.

    It will be interesting to see how the draft plays out since teams can't overpay late picks to sway going to school. I wonder if that will dampen school signings as players try to wait til after the draft to see how high they go first?

  10. #174
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    The Reds system is very weak. Outside of Corcino and Hamilton, there isn't much there. Stephenson and Rosa may be able to boost it next year, but next year is far far away.

    You don't reach for a hitter. Just get talent in the system.

  11. #175
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    You don't reach for a hitter. Just get talent in the system.

    Agreed.

    The latest BA mock puts a "second tier" of college pitchers behind Appel, Gausman and Zimmer, and has all 4 of that tier -- Stroman, Stratton, Wacha and Heaney -- available to the Reds at 14. If they do go with one of those 4, it will be interesting to follow how they all pan out.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  12. #176
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    No one is saying reach for a hitter. In fact quite the opposite. What those in the upside crowd are saying is get us a player that can project to be an impact player at the big league level. Not just someone that will make the show and be serviceable. Stephenson is an example of the philosophy. He is a raw HS arm. Lots of risk, Lots of upside, Lots of time required. Unless a Gioloto or Fried falls, you are kind of looking at MOR upside with the Wachas of the world. Those can be found later, so instead go get a bat. It would be nice to potentially have a young Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, or even Yonder Alonso laying around.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  13. #177
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    No one is saying reach for a hitter. In fact quite the opposite. What those in the upside crowd are saying is get us a player that can project to be an impact player at the big league level. Not just someone that will make the show and be serviceable. Stephenson is an example of the philosophy. He is a raw HS arm. Lots of risk, Lots of upside, Lots of time required. Unless a Gioloto or Fried falls, you are kind of looking at MOR upside with the Wachas of the world. Those can be found later, so instead go get a bat. It would be nice to potentially have a young Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, or even Yonder Alonso laying around.
    Seconded. Great way of describing what I want the Reds to do in the draft.

  14. #178
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    No one is saying reach for a hitter. In fact quite the opposite. What those in the upside crowd are saying is get us a player that can project to be an impact player at the big league level. Not just someone that will make the show and be serviceable. Stephenson is an example of the philosophy. He is a raw HS arm. Lots of risk, Lots of upside, Lots of time required. Unless a Gioloto or Fried falls, you are kind of looking at MOR upside with the Wachas of the world. Those can be found later, so instead go get a bat. It would be nice to potentially have a young Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, or even Yonder Alonso laying around.
    Agreed. The Reds played the Wacha type pitcher card with Mike Leake. Good safe pick and it worked but it isn't high impact possible superstar - IF there is a good top tier hitter left like Shaffer or Gallo or Marrerro when the Reds pick I'd much rather that than a second tier pitcher. By all means if all those top tier hitters have gone and left one of the plum pitchers on the board - grab him! But there are plenty of top tier corner outfielders and infielders and a dearth of top tier pitchers and middle infielders this year, so I expect a top corner bat to be most likely available at 14. I don't want the Reds reaching past one of those guys to grab a "safe" pick like Wacha. There are plenty of those types in the draft - it is deep in those second tier arms and there should be good prospective pitchers available for compensation and second round picks alike.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 05-29-2012 at 11:31 AM.

  15. #179
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    No one is saying reach for a hitter. In fact quite the opposite. What those in the upside crowd are saying is get us a player that can project to be an impact player at the big league level. Not just someone that will make the show and be serviceable. Stephenson is an example of the philosophy. He is a raw HS arm. Lots of risk, Lots of upside, Lots of time required. Unless a Gioloto or Fried falls, you are kind of looking at MOR upside with the Wachas of the world. Those can be found later, so instead go get a bat. It would be nice to potentially have a young Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, or even Yonder Alonso laying around.
    My sentiments exactly.

    There is (arguably) not a single potential All-Star playing in the system right now. Given where the Reds are at at the big league level, I'd rather sacrifice timeline to the majors for upside at this point.
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  16. #180
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 MLB Draft order

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    My sentiments exactly.

    There is (arguably) not a single potential All-Star playing in the system right now. Given where the Reds are at at the big league level, I'd rather sacrifice timeline to the majors for upside at this point.
    Really? Not a single potential All-Star? That's just ridiculous. First, let's just go ahead and eliminate Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, and Devin Mesoraco from the discussion even though they're all still rookies. Oh, and J.J. Hoover and Mike Costanzo, too, of course. Who does that leave? Well . . .

    Neftali Soto has drawn a lot of comparisons to Derrek Lee. Donnie Joseph probably isn't a future closer, but he's looking like a bullpen stud, and if Arthur Rhodes can become an All-Star, why not Joseph? Dan Corcino and Billy Hamilton are two of the top prospects in baseball. Kyle Lotzkar usually dominates when he's healthy. People rave about Didi Gregorius. Henry Rodriguez has done nothing but hit. The jury is still out on Donald Lutz, but he has some big-time power. You could say the same about Juan Duran. Does it get any toolsier than Yorman Rodriguez? Robert Stephenson was last year's first round draft pick, and in most years, he would've been drafted a lot earlier than he was. Tucker Barnhart is considered the best defensive catcher in all the minor leagues, and he has some very impressive on-base skills. I could go on, but the point is this: the Reds have plenty of potential All-Stars. Whether any of them actually do it or not is anyone's guess, though.


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