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Thread: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

  1. #1
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...es-the-chance/

    Heisey hit .254/.309/.487 with 18 home runs and 50 RBI over 279 at-bats. Thatís almost exactly a half of season. Thirty-six homers and 100 RBI would play in left.

    ďI think I can (put up those kind of numbers),Ē he said. ďItís going to be tough, but Iím confident in my ability. I understand that there are people out there who are skeptical because until you prove it you donít know.Ē
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    I'm not. All the Reds need IMO is a 4th OF.

    and James Shields.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    If Heisey "can put up those numbers", it won't be very good. That OBP is not something to strive for.

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Heisey "can put up those numbers", it won't be very good. That OBP is not something to strive for.
    No, but 36 home runs or so wouldn't be too shabby either. If he keeps those numbers consistent he'd be in that vicinity. Heisey isn't ideal but if his power numbers can stay decent and he can raise his on base numbers even a tick he'll be a really valuable player.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    If Heisey hits 36 HR's and drives in 100, he'll likely score 80+ runs. And I won't care what his OBP is, that's the best season in LF since Dunn left.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    If he puts up those numbers 254/310/500, he's a 3.5 WAR guy at least. An 800 OPS and his glove and speed on the basepaths? Yes, please. Even with the low obp.

    That said, I think Heisey is likely to add obp points but drop power fairly precipitously. Still, an 800 OPS is a distinct possibility.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Heisey would be fine if he could only hit LHP. His lifetime performance against lefties in 166 plate appearances is .180/.248/.300/.548. At some more reasonable level against LHP, he might have good numbers across the board.

    You could do a reverse platoon with him, only playing against RHP, but I doubt many teams would do that. I think the expectation would be that, over time, his excellent numbers righty on righty would level off.

    Heisey has lifetime 135 Ks and 35 BBs in 534 plate appearances. Ks are a tad high but acceptable for a power guy, walks are pretty low.

    Undoubtedly Heisey's big plus is his homer total of 26 in 534 plate appearances. One could envision, with some improvement, Chris being a 30 homer guy, possibly even 35. His homers and his defense are his calling cards so far.

    Heisey notably has equal number of homers home and road, with more at bats away. So his power seems genuine, he's not just a GABP hitter.

    With a lifetime OPS of .780, I guess he could be worth a try as a regular, but it's a close call IMO. At least he favors hitting against RHP, which is the Reds need.

    Still guessing Ryan Ludwick comes on board and gets the first chance out there.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-06-2012 at 05:28 PM.

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Heisey better pump the breaks.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    I'd love a higher OBP, but could you complain if you got 3 WAR from him?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    I'm far from convinced that those numbers just neatly scale up if he is given twice the at-bats. As a matter of fact, I'd expect the opposite.

  12. #11
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    I wouldn't expect that kind of ISO going forward, but I also wouldn't expect the same OBP going forward either. I think a .750-.800 OPS is likely in a full season. If that happens, he'd be more than an adequate starter with defense factored in.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Heisey "can put up those numbers", it won't be very good. That OBP is not something to strive for.
    If someone could guarantee that Heisey would hit 36 HR and drive in 90-100 runs, I'd take it in a heartbeat and pump all the money into the pitching staff. I don't think Heisey approaches that.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

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  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    If someone could guarantee that Heisey would hit 36 HR and drive in 90-100 runs, I'd take it in a heartbeat and pump all the money into the pitching staff. I don't think Heisey approaches that.
    Sure, but that production with a ton of outs simply isn't as valuable as it appears at first glance. Of course, most guys who have put up seasons similar to that also weren't able to play the defense Heisey does.

    If he can be a .750-.800 OPS bat, even if thats a .320/.480 split, it has good value. But I would much rather see a .350/.450 than a .320/.480.

  15. #14
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure, but that production with a ton of outs simply isn't as valuable as it appears at first glance. Of course, most guys who have put up seasons similar to that also weren't able to play the defense Heisey does.

    If he can be a .750-.800 OPS bat, even if thats a .320/.480 split, it has good value. But I would much rather see a .350/.450 than a .320/.480.
    You're right, but you were splitting hairs in your first post. A near-.800 OPS with plus defense will be just fine by me, even if nearly two-thirds of the OPS is coming from slugging.

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    Re: Fay: Heisey expecting to start in left

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Heisey would be fine if he could only hit LHP. His lifetime performance against lefties in 166 plate appearances is .180/.248/.300/.548. At some more reasonable level against LHP, he might have good numbers across the board.

    You could do a reverse platoon with him, only playing against RHP, but I doubt many teams would do that. I think the expectation would be that, over time, his excellent numbers righty on righty would level off.

    Heisey has lifetime 135 Ks and 35 BBs in 534 plate appearances. Ks are a tad high but acceptable for a power guy, walks are pretty low.

    Undoubtedly Heisey's big plus is his homer total of 26 in 534 plate appearances. One could envision, with some improvement, Chris being a 30 homer guy, possibly even 35. His homers and his defense are his calling cards so far.

    Heisey notably has equal number of homers home and road, with more at bats away. So his power seems genuine, he's not just a GABP hitter.

    With a lifetime OPS of .780, I guess he could be worth a try as a regular, but it's a close call IMO. At least he favors hitting against RHP, which is the Reds need.

    Still guessing Ryan Ludwick comes on board and gets the first chance out there.
    For all the talk about Heisey's reverse splits, I found this enlightening today:

    http://basecloggers.tumblr.com/post/...****terneedpt1

    NOTE: Before you bring up Chris Heiseyís MLB splits, let me make 2 points. First, Heiseyís splits were much more typical in the minors (.923 OPS vs LHP, .802 vs RHP). Second, a lot of players have dramatic changes in their splits over one season of data, which is essentially what we have for Heisey. His big league splits MIGHT be real, but Iím not convinced itís a valid data point right now.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.


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