This strikes me as:

- All TJ surgeries are preceded by pitchers complaining about elbow soreness.
- Madson is complaining about elbow soreness
- Therefore, Madson is headed for TJ

Which is, of course, a logical fallacy. Because the correct question is not "what did guys who get TJ report early on" it's "what happens to guy who report elbow soreness". And I'm guessing that the majority of those who report elbow soreness to do end up getting TJ.

Obviously that's not to say Madson won't need TJ. Just that the jump from soreness to TJ is a stretch absent other information we're not being given.