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Thread: Very realistic If's

  1. #1
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    Very realistic If's

    Thinking back a few years ago where we could be a good team if this or that went right and the if's were people like Paul Wilson, Jimmy Haynes, Pete Harnisch ect. Going into this year the if's are very realistic and scary IF 50% or more of them become real.

    If Latos and Cueto develop into bonafide aces.

    If Arroyo does what he has done five of the last six years.
    If Leake continues to develop into a solid mid-rotation guy.
    If either Bailey of Chapman reach 70% of their promise.
    If Mesaraco becomes a solid mlb catcher.
    If Votto continues to produce at an MVP clip.
    If Phillips continues to be the best defensive second baseman in baseball and continues his late season lead-off productivity.
    If Cozart can hit .260 and play major league shortstop.
    BIG If Rolen can get back to the Rolen of the first half of 2010.
    If Jay Bruce could finally look more like Larry Walker than Adam Dunn.
    If Stubbs can strikeout 40 times less and turn 10 of those into bunt hits.
    If Heisey's 2011 half season numbers are legit.
    If Ludwick can hit like he did in St.Louis and not like he did in SD
    If Madson continues to move into the upper echelon of closers.
    If Marshall gets other teams lefties out the way he dominated Bruce and Votto last year.
    If Massett gets back on track.
    If Arrendondo returns to his rookie form with the Angels.

    This team could be scary good in 2012

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  3. #2
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    Re: Very realistic If's

    Hm. If I had to fathom a guess about each of your "ifs":

    Latos will be legit, TOR arm. Cueto won't be an ace, but a very good three-and-a-half-ERA #2.

    Arroyo will continue to age, and poorly. I really don't see him bouncing back much from his atrocious 2011, mono or no. Dusty will stick with him for far longer tha he should. It will drive us all insane.

    Leake will pitch a solid 170-ish innings of 4.00 ERA/FIP ball.

    Bailey will reach that 70%, but struggle with consistency. He'll show flashes of brilliance, but be bogged down some very poor streaks. Overall, he will make a decent, but not great #4. I don't expect Chapman to make any significant strides this year. More strikeouts, more walks.

    Mes will be very solid, something like a .259/.331/.447 line in 100-ish games.

    Votto continues to be Votto, another season worth around 7 wins, another top 5 or so MVP finish.

    Phillips continues to produce like we expect him to. Will lose some speed, will probably hit closer to .280 than .300, but with good on base an power from a second baseman and award winning defense.

    Cozart impresses. I don't know that he'll hit .260, but he will be a welcome bit of stability at a position this team has sorely been lacking it from.

    Rolen plays less than 120 games, and we don't get much power out of him. Francisco needs to step up big, and I'm not sure if he does or doesn't. Protection for Votto becomes a bi issue again.

    Bruce improves, but is still crazy streaky. .270/.350/.500 or so, with 35 HRs and Gold Glove defense.

    Stubbs relinquishes some starts in CF to Heisey against tough RHP, stays down in the order all season, and benefits from both. .260/.340 and 20 HRs not out of the question, but strikeouts don't go away.

    Heisey provides good power all year, but looks overmatched at times. Struggles with keeping his OBP above .315, but slugs around .450. Plays an above average LF.

    Ludwick is a good replacement, but his glory days are over. Don't expect much more tha you saw for him in San Diego and Pittsburgh.

    Madson is an immediate and noticeable improvement over Cordero. A consistently effective presence at the end of games all summer

    Marshall shuts down everyone, handedness be damned.

    Masset puts up good peripherals, remains streaky, continues to invite intense and seething hatred from casual fans.

    Arredondo gives us an 8.3 K/9, but also a 3.9 BB/9. He's Aroldis Jr.

    Overall, I see a team with some holes, but a very realistice shot at taking the Central. Just don't expect us to walk away with it. I think people are counting on St. Louis falling a lot harder than they actually will...

    Edit: a lot of typos, dropped letters, and poorly constructed sentences here, but my only Internet access right now is through my phone and typing this much has been a challenge as it is.
    Last edited by [deleted]; 01-17-2012 at 02:43 AM.

  4. #3
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    Re: Very realistic If's

    Oh, and I think Haniga will continue to be the most underrated part of the club. Guy gets on base like a champ and is quite the serviceable catcher.
    Last edited by [deleted]; 01-17-2012 at 02:39 AM.

  5. #4
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    Re: Very realistic If's

    If Latos and Cueto develop into bonafide aces.

    I think Latos has the chance of being a true ace/Cy Young winner type guy. He has much nastier stuff. Cueto is a great pitcher, but control and health concerns are keeping him from being a CY guy. I don't think either contend for the Cy Young this year, but Latos has the chance to be that guy soon.


    If Arroyo does what he has done five of the last six years.

    Arroyo lost some edge last year. K/9 have been going down. I would worry about him continuing to decline if I were a Reds fan.

    If Leake continues to develop into a solid mid-rotation guy.

    Yes

    If either Bailey of Chapman reach 70% of their promise.

    The 24 year old Chapman has all the "stuff" in the world but his control is way too wild. I still think he has work to do before he reaches his potential and that most likely won't all happen this year. I think Bailey is what he is at this point.

    If Mesaraco becomes a solid mlb catcher.

    I see him as more of a solid backup type guy.

    If Votto continues to produce at an MVP clip.

    Why not?

    If Phillips continues to be the best defensive second baseman in baseball and continues his late season lead-off productivity.

    Phillips has his best offensive year by far last year, I think 2012 will be similiar but maybe not quite as good. He's in his prime, but I think his absolute best year will probably end up being 2011. Oh, and I would say that Pedroia is the best defensively. I think the Reds would be wise to let Phillips walk after this year, they've got the best years out of him and I'm sure he'll be looking for one last big contract for 5 years.
    .
    If Cozart can hit .260 and play major league shortstop.

    I think so. It's kind of now or never for him, isn't it? He'll be turning 27 this season. Not sure how good he is defnsivly

    BIG If Rolen can get back to the Rolen of the first half of 2010.

    I love Rolen but his health has been in steady decline since 2005 in St Louis when he injured his shoulder. He is a crap shoot and I would bet against him at this point.

    If Jay Bruce could finally look more like Larry Walker than Adam Dunn.

    He's like Adam Dunn with a little less power and a little better eye.

    If Stubbs can strikeout 40 times less and turn 10 of those into bunt hits.

    Led the MLB in strikeouts last year, those kinds of things usually aren't flukes.

    If Heisey's 2011 half season numbers are legit.

    Not sure I understand this one


    If Ludwick can hit like he did in St.Louis and not like he did in SD

    There's a reason he was signed for 2.5M.... I see him improving over his olast couple of years, but he's not the player he was in StL

    If Madson continues to move into the upper echelon of closers.

    Madson will be turning 32 this season. I would bet that 2011 ends up being his banner year. I wouldn't expect him improving even more over last year, but still a darn good closer.

    If Marshall gets other teams lefties out the way he dominated Bruce and Votto last year.

    Great LOOGY

    If Massett gets back on track.

    "Back on track," to what? Not sure I understand.

    If Arrendondo returns to his rookie form with the Angels.

    I had to look up his stats. Unbelievable rookie year. Why did he miss the 2010 season?
    *11xWSChamps

    2011 World Series Champs... GO CARDS!

  6. #5
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    Re: Very realistic If's


    If Arrendondo returns to his rookie form with the Angels.

    I had to look up his stats. Unbelievable rookie year. Why did he miss the 2010 season?
    Tommy Johnn Surgery I believe


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