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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

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    Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11


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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    I can't see a justification for Hamilton ahead of Mesoraco. His upside isn't higher. He isn't closer. Just don't see it.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Yeah, that's quite odd.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Well there is a line in Hamilton's profile for "Fantasy Impact." Is the top 10 based at least partially on fantasy impact? If so is the potential steal fantasy value so high that it skews Hamilton beyond his real world value?

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    He can't steal first though.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Goldstein's deep sleeper was Vaughn Covington. Anyone else have a take on him?
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    I think Sulbaran is too low.

    Breakout player.To have the numbers he had in a hitter friendly league, in that little league ballpark... I'm going to enjoy following him at AA. Are those games, AA posted online?
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think Sulbaran is too low.

    Breakout player.To have the numbers he had in a hitter friendly league, in that little league ballpark... I'm going to enjoy following him at AA. Are those games, AA posted online?
    Milb.com usually has gamecasts for AA and AAA games; I would imagine this would continue in Pensacola.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think Sulbaran is too low.

    Breakout player.To have the numbers he had in a hitter friendly league, in that little league ballpark... I'm going to enjoy following him at AA. Are those games, AA posted online?
    Too low?? That's the highest I've seen him anywhere.

    I actually think there is a huge gap between the Top 5 and everyone else.

    Mez, Cozart, Hamilton, Corcino and Stephenson are light years ahead of anyone else left in the organization in my book. Kinda like there was a few years ago with the "Big Four" of Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto, and then there was everyone else. Only, I wouldn't put this top 5 on the same wavelength as those "Big Four". However, after this year's top 5, I don't see anyone else that jumps out and I could say with confidence has better than a 50% chance of being something more than a role player at the major league level at this point.

    Of course, some others (ie Rodriguez, maybe Sulbaran, possibly Lotzkar if he stays healthy etc.) could join their ranks if they harness some of their talent this year.
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-17-2012 at 03:57 PM.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I can't see a justification for Hamilton ahead of Mesoraco. His upside isn't higher. He isn't closer. Just don't see it.
    Baseball Prospectus seems to value speed. As a publication/ web site that focuses on both numbers and scouting, it makes sense, as perhaps they see the game shifting back toward the pitcher. Or, perhaps they are looking at the positive WAR a good-fielding (ceiling, remember) SS who can fly would create just with his positional scarcity, legs (via SB and Baserunning metric), and glove.

    Mesoraco doesn't have the glove or the speed, but does have the power edge. (Again, at their ceilings.)

    Because they're both rated as 5-star prospects, it's probably extremely close. A nice problem to have, IMO. And a great way for Hamilton's season to begin-- a 5-star and number one prospect has great trade value. As he's likely going to play in Bakersfield, he might put up some helium-related slugging, thereby increasing his BA, slugging, OPS, and wOBA.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    And a great way for Hamilton's season to begin-- a 5-star and number one prospect has great trade value. As he's likely going to play in Bakersfield, he might put up some helium-related slugging, thereby increasing his BA, slugging, OPS, and wOBA.
    Fantastic point, Scrap. I really think that after putting up California League-inflated numbers for the first half, Billy could be the centerpiece for a big bat in left field or for an injury replacement. I think Billy could be a great player, but I view all prospects as trade chips and he could really help bring in a haul to help in this Votto window.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Too low?? That's the highest I've seen him anywhere.

    I actually think there is a huge gap between the Top 5 and everyone else.

    Mez, Cozart, Hamilton, Corcino and Stephenson are light years ahead of anyone else left in the organization in my book. Kinda like there was a few years ago with the "Big Four" of Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto, and then there was everyone else. Only, I wouldn't put this top 5 on the same wavelength as those "Big Four". However, after this year's top 5, I don't see anyone else that jumps out and I could say with confidence has better than a 50% chance of being something more than a role player at the major league level at this point.

    Of course, some others (ie Rodriguez, maybe Sulbaran, possibly Lotzkar if he stays healthy etc.) could join their ranks if they harness some of their talent this year.
    I think it's too low. I think too much was made of his ERA last year. And I think he's a top 5 player on Reds lists. Sick K rate, Gets groundballs at a good rate and allowed 10 HR's in that rinky dink league, only 4 at home in that teeny, tiny park in 74 IP.

    And he's about 2 seasons away from the Reds rotation. He's just 22, won't be 23 until Nov.

    Yes, I think he's too low, and I think Hamilton is too high. I'd have Hamilton about 6th, simply because he's too raw, and has zero power. His ceiling might be Juan Pierre, and that's ok. It just isn't #1 prospect ok.

    JMO.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Fantastic point, Scrap. I really think that after putting up California League-inflated numbers for the first half, Billy could be the centerpiece for a big bat in left field or for an injury replacement. I think Billy could be a great player, but I view all prospects as trade chips and he could really help bring in a haul to help in this Votto window.
    My personal opinion has changed slightly in the past couple of years.

    All things equal, I'd keep the guy with the one truly superior or elite tool to the guy who has a higher floor with less questions. As scouting has improved across the game, it's easier to find players in the draft that end up being positive for your farm system.

    It's those upper level, elite talents, though, that determine pennants and dynasties.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think it's too low. I think too much was made of his ERA last year. And I think he's a top 5 player on Reds lists. Sick K rate, Gets groundballs at a good rate and allowed 10 HR's in that rinky dink league, only 4 at home in that teeny, tiny park in 74 IP.

    And he's about 2 seasons away from the Reds rotation. He's just 22, won't be 23 until Nov.

    Yes, I think he's too low, and I think Hamilton is too high. I'd have Hamilton about 6th, simply because he's too raw, and has zero power. His ceiling might be Juan Pierre, and that's ok. It just isn't #1 prospect ok.

    JMO.
    A little testy are we?

    And Hamilton's ceiling can't be Juan Pierre because he plays SS. His ceiling could be more like Ozzie Smith with a lesser glove.
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-17-2012 at 06:00 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    His ceiling is Tim Raines, pre-1985 as a SS.

    (There just aren't that many comparables.)

    His median is from Omar Moreno to Maury Wills. Again, as a SS.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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