Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 41

Thread: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,258

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Baseball Prospectus seems to value speed. As a publication/ web site that focuses on both numbers and scouting, it makes sense, as perhaps they see the game shifting back toward the pitcher. Or, perhaps they are looking at the positive WAR a good-fielding (ceiling, remember) SS who can fly would create just with his positional scarcity, legs (via SB and Baserunning metric), and glove.
    While BP is a "Stats" based place, Kevin Goldstein isn't and his prospect rankings aren't either.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,258

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    His ceiling is Tim Raines, pre-1985 as a SS.

    (There just aren't that many comparables.)

    His median is from Omar Moreno to Maury Wills. Again, as a SS.
    Tim Raines walked more than he struck out. I just don't see Hamilton doing anything like that.

  4. #18
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Tim Raines walked more than he struck out. I just don't see Hamilton doing anything like that.
    And had a .425 career slugging % and a 123 OPS+. Those are lofty comps for a guy with no power.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #19
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Jacksonville, FL
    Posts
    9,511

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    Goldstein's deep sleeper was Vaughn Covington. Anyone else have a take on him?
    Takes a lot of Melatonin.

  6. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And had a .425 career slugging % and a 123 OPS+. Those are lofty comps for a guy with no power.
    I compared him to a pre-1985 Tim Raines, fwiw, though, as doug rightly points out, the Ks don't match up. There just aren't that many people who have ever had Hamilton's skill set and played professional baseball.

    Do you like Lou Brock as a SS better?

    How about Brett Gardner with an extra 50 SB at SS?

    Kenny Lofton?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,258

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I compared him to a pre-1985 Tim Raines, fwiw, though, as doug rightly points out, the Ks don't match up. There just aren't that many people who have ever had Hamilton's skill set and played professional baseball.

    Do you like Lou Brock as a SS better?

    How about Brett Gardner with an extra 50 SB at SS?

    Kenny Lofton?
    I am not a big fan of comps, because they often just don't make sense. Here is what I see Hamilton's offensive ceiling being: .285/.360/.400. That is a darn good player when coupled with his defense and ability on the base paths. He is also light years away from being able to do that.

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,258

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    Goldstein's deep sleeper was Vaughn Covington. Anyone else have a take on him?
    He is going to be one of the guys on my "breakout" list. He missed his senior season with TJ surgery, but prior to that he showed good stuff and he is a real big kid, at 6' 5" and 210 pounds already.

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I compared him to a pre-1985 Tim Raines, fwiw, though, as doug rightly points out, the Ks don't match up. There just aren't that many people who have ever had Hamilton's skill set and played professional baseball.

    Do you like Lou Brock as a SS better?

    How about Brett Gardner with an extra 50 SB at SS?

    Kenny Lofton?
    He's not Lou Brock, Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton. What makes you think he'll hit like any of those guys? His best possible scenario is Vince Coleman, and he wasn't very good IMO. I don't get the high ratings for Hamilton. He's a superb athlete who can run, but hitting, getting on base, power and ability to play defense are more important. So far, he's a question mark in all of those areas. All he's really got going for him are those SB totals. The last two 100 SB guys in the minor leagues that I can remember are Esix Snead and Chris Morris. Household names to be sure.

    I'm not even convinced that Hamilton sticks in the IF. I've read that his hands and his footwork are question marks. His speed is his primary defensive weapon. Guys like that usually end-up in CF.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,258

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He's not Lou Brock, Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton. What makes you think he'll hit like any of those guys? His best possible scenario is Vince Coleman, and he wasn't very good IMO. I don't get the high ratings for Hamilton. He's a superb athlete who can run, but hitting, getting on base, power and ability to play defense are more important. So far, he's a question mark in all of those areas. All he's really got going for him are those SB totals. The last two 100 SB guys in the minor leagues that I can remember are Esix Snead and Chris Morris. Household names to be sure.

    I'm not even convinced that Hamilton sticks in the IF. I've read that his hands and his footwork are question marks. His speed is his primary defensive weapon. Guys like that usually end-up in CF.
    Vince Coleman at shortstop is a lot more valuable than Vince Coleman was. I am a believe that he can stay at shortstop.... in fact, I would argue it would be dumb to move him off of the position within the next 4 years.

  11. #25
    Member chicoruiz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    1,716

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Even Coleman as a 2B or a CF would be a pretty good deal. The comp that haunts me is Larry Lintz.

    The encouraging part is that, as I understand it, he's a good kid with a positive attitude and a willingness to work on his game. That means a lot.
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

  12. #26
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He's not Lou Brock, Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton. What makes you think he'll hit like any of those guys? His best possible scenario is Vince Coleman, and he wasn't very good IMO. I don't get the high ratings for Hamilton. He's a superb athlete who can run, but hitting, getting on base, power and ability to play defense are more important. So far, he's a question mark in all of those areas. All he's really got going for him are those SB totals. The last two 100 SB guys in the minor leagues that I can remember are Esix Snead and Chris Morris. Household names to be sure.

    I'm not even convinced that Hamilton sticks in the IF. I've read that his hands and his footwork are question marks. His speed is his primary defensive weapon. Guys like that usually end-up in CF.
    It's all about the ceiling, mth.

    That's the discussion here.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  13. #27
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,380

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    His ceiling is absolutely Juan Pierre at the plate. defensively, IMO it's too soon to say what his ceiling is as he's just to raw a defender. Ozzie Smith never stole 100 bases at any level in his life. He capped out at 57. Twice. Pierre led the league three times had more than 50 5 times, and had 151 SB's in three minor league seasons. So, Hamilton's speed is beyond elite. But the power is similar, as in none.

    As much as BA is denigrated on this board, with a player like Hamilton, it's kinda important. Kid needs hits. period. He's never going to hit 10 HR's in a season, probably will never hit 5. His doubles will be speed aided, singles into doubles. He can lead a league in triples with his speed. But he needs to just hit. If the walks he got at Dayton are any indication, If he maintains that or improves slightly, then he needs to hit .280.

    No, he's not the Reds top prospect. Just a really interesting one.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #28
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    8,328

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    His ceiling is Tim Raines, pre-1985 as a SS.

    (There just aren't that many comparables.)

    His median is from Omar Moreno to Maury Wills. Again, as a SS.
    Yeah, but what are the odds that he sticks at short. From what I've read, they're slim. I have no doubt that he can improve his foot work and his hands. But he has a very mediocre arm, and that's not a good thing for short. Personally, I'd prefer it if they moved him to either second or center RIGHT NOW and give him the time he needs to get acclimated to the positions. Otherwise, we're going to end up going through the same hoops we did with Yonder, Francisco & Frazier, high-end prospects with no settled positions.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 01-18-2012 at 11:01 AM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  15. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,838

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    I still see Luis Castillo as a comp and a lesser fielding Ozzie Smith as his ceiling. Two middle infielders who stole a ton of bases but who's OBP > SLG.

    Smith stole 580 bases and hit 28 HR in his major league career while sporting a .332 OBP. If Hamilton can do that, he will have had a successful career IMO. While no "Wizard" with the glove, he has shown the ability to make earth-defying plays at SS.

    Luis Castillo also had 28 HR in his major league career, and stole 370 bases while sporting a .368 OBP. I'd take that kind of production out of Hamilton as well, provided he could play above average defense in the MI (especially at SS).
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-18-2012 at 02:17 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #30
    Member NJReds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    New Jersey, USA
    Posts
    5,432

    Re: Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am not a big fan of comps, because they often just don't make sense. Here is what I see Hamilton's offensive ceiling being: .285/.360/.400. That is a darn good player when coupled with his defense and ability on the base paths. He is also light years away from being able to do that.
    Your ceiling looks a little like Jose Reyes ... lower average, but higher OBA, slightly lower SLG. Although Reyes never really hit for power, he does get a lot of triples.
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25