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Thread: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

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  1. #1
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    Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I think it's a fair question to ask.

    For the record, I am not saying he is a bust or I want him to be one. Quite the opposite on both accounts. I hope he's an awesome player.

    But a $2M signing bonus was steep. He's not a baby anymore at 20, due to 21 this year. That's still young, but it's not the 16 year old he was before. I only mention the age because I don't think he's progressed much in those years.

    The raw power is impressive, but his contact rate is undoubtedly poor and I don't think his glove has developed as well as some folks thought it would have by now. To me, he looks like a long shot at this juncture.

    What do you think?

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I think he's progressed reasonably well for the toolsy guy that he is. Strikeouts are still a major problem, but you must remember it's his first full season of minor league ball in a league where pitching is absurdly dominant. He took a step forward in a year where guys like Yorman took a step back. Guys like Francisco and Soto have progressed adequately despite similar flaws in their game, and I think Duran has plenty of time to do the same.

  3. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by The DARK View Post
    I think he's progressed reasonably well for the toolsy guy that he is. Strikeouts are still a major problem, but you must remember it's his first full season of minor league ball in a league where pitching is absurdly dominant. He took a step forward in a year where guys like Yorman took a step back. Guys like Francisco and Soto have progressed adequately despite similar flaws in their game, and I think Duran has plenty of time to do the same.
    Francisco and Soto don't have a similar flaw at all. Duran makes Drew Stubbs look like a contact hitter.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    His strikeouts are definitely disconcerting, but they're overshadowing the progress in other areas he made this season. Raw, toolsy guys like Duran often have previously unknown flaws that get held up to the light in a full season in a tough league. It's not like Hamilton and Yorman didn't have rough seasons either; there was a point in the season where it looked like Hamilton couldn't play any kind of reliable defense and couldn't make enough contact to be taken seriously as a prospect anymore. We can start calling Duran a bust when he flames out before reaching AAA.

  5. #5
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Wily Mo redux.

    Bust.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Wily Mo redux.

    Bust.
    My thoughts exactly. Wily Mo made it to the show, I don't know if Juan will. I hope I am wrong.
    Let's get weird!

  7. #7
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I sure hope this thread works the way the Devin Mesoraco is a bust thread went.

    BTW I am giving him another three years before I am labeling him anything.

    If he can cut his K rate this year while maintaining his power, he will skyrocket up prospect lists.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    He's got to find a way to be a passable outfielder, otherwise he has no future in the National League. The bat remains intriguing, but overall he's a long shot in my view.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    He's got to find a way to be a passable outfielder, otherwise he has no future in the National League. The bat remains intriguing, but overall he's a long shot in my view.
    Not sure about this. At 6'7", I see him as a future 1B.
    Go BLUE!!!

  10. #10
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I'm still holding out a sliver of hope that he makes the adjustment and takes off, but that contact rate is just inconceivably bad. I still like the risk of this signing looking back on it though.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Funny that this thread should be started. I was just looking at our top-40 polls and thinking of posing the question: which prospect to you think we have most grossly overrated? I would have said Duran.

    I suppose it's possible that he could pick up contact skills, coordination and work ethic and become a Kingman-type player. But from what I've read, power is his only asset. A little speed, maybe. But eyewitnesses have remarked that, quite often, he looks totally out of place on a baseball field, even in the batter's box. That's not the kind of prospect I can hold out much hope for.

    That said, he made some very nice strides last year, stat-wise. And his body type takes a lot of growing into.

  12. #12
    Member RedLegsToday's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Well, most prospects do end up being busts, so, the answer is probably yes. But, man, it seems crazy to label a guy who put up a .792 OPS as a teenager in the Midwest League a bust already.

  13. #13
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    The question was:

    "Will" Juan Duran be a bust?

    Not that he is now, but in your opinion, will he be a bust?

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    We all know guys who experience growth spurts; it takes them a while to grow into their new bodies. That doesn't mean anything positive or negative; it just means that it's still WAY too early to make a call.
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Not sure about this. At 6'7", I see him as a future 1B.
    Until he plays an inning there, this is wishful thinking.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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