.792 OPS in a full season league at an age when most prospects haven't played professionally yet or are messing around in the low rookei league. Seems pretty far from a bust IMO. Check back after three more seasons.
.792 OPS in a full season league at an age when most prospects haven't played professionally yet or are messing around in the low rookei league. Seems pretty far from a bust IMO. Check back after three more seasons.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Looking at the raw numbers doesn't tell us anything about what he can do moving forward though. His OPS was good. He also had a .405 BABIP and struck out nearly 40% of the time he stepped to the plate. When his BABIP returns to a normal level, he is going to struggle to OPS .700 without adding a lot more in game power, more walks or lowering his strikeout rate significantly. Can he do those things? I think the power will happen. Not sure about the walks or strikeouts though.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
His strikeouts are definitely disconcerting, but they're overshadowing the progress in other areas he made this season. Raw, toolsy guys like Duran often have previously unknown flaws that get held up to the light in a full season in a tough league. It's not like Hamilton and Yorman didn't have rough seasons either; there was a point in the season where it looked like Hamilton couldn't play any kind of reliable defense and couldn't make enough contact to be taken seriously as a prospect anymore. We can start calling Duran a bust when he flames out before reaching AAA.
Being that incredibly tall buys him more time, IMO.
Not even close. WMP was signed to a major league contract. Because of injury and that stupid contract, he was never allowed to fully develop. WMP's talent IMO is/was off the charts, and Duran's... I'm not sure about. WMP had some flashes at the major league level despite his accelerated timeframe in the minors. And Duran was apparently exposed to gamma rays. I also believe he'll end up at 1B, and think he should be moved there this coming season. Might make him feel more involved as a player than standing in the OF.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Most scouts feel that Duran's offensive struggles will worsen as he moves up because he is a "mistake" hitter. The pitcher has to leave a ball out over the plate in one specific spot for Duran to make contact, and when he does, Duran will hit it eight miles. Mistake pitches of this nature get more and more rare as the pitchers get better. Some scouts do not see Duran ever being able to play well at the Double-A level or higher. There are some similarities to B.J. Szymanski.
Duran has tremendous raw power. That is the positive element that he brings to the table. As a left fielder on defense, he is simply horrendous by the standards that we traditionally set for professionals, even at the Single-A level. He struggles to catch any fly ball in which he has to reach away from his body to snag. Perhaps he will gain coordination as he gets older, but problematic is the fact that he shows little interest in improving in that area.
Lastly, he is a very poor base runner. Part of this could be a matter of simply being out of shape. There have been numerous examples of Duran being on second and, when attempting to score on a single, slowing down dramatically over the last 45 feet to a point of a jog and getting tagged out on a ball in which it looked as though he would be safe with ease if he had simply continued to sprint. You could watch minor league games for 10 years and never see anyone else do that in this manner.
Duran is a well-liked guy by his teammates but lacks the hunger and drive to improve that most every major leaguer had on his way to the big leagues. The 2012 season will be a key year for him. You certainly see the power and imposing body, but he has to start working at it.
Okay then, if you want to get picky a poor man's Wily Mo. Whatever Wily Mo's situations, he never lived up to what was expected. Tremendous power. Couldn't take a walk. Swung and missed a lot. I'm not sure how you can say the two aren't comparable. If you want to say that because you don't think Wily Mo ws a bust, fine. But I think his traits are comparable to Wily Mo and that he'll be a bust. I hope not, but if I had to answer now (which is what the OP is asking) I'd say he will indeed someday be considered a bust.
And just like Wily Mo, IMO.
If he can't catch fly balls away from his body, he's got no chance at 1B. Errant throws and groundballs will eat him up.Gives more credence to his future being at 1B.
Some guys just have trouble judging fly balls. They just can't do it. Doesn't mean they can't play 1B. Again, it's the easiest defensive position on the field.
Sounds like he has a lot of issues to work on if he's ever going to get past AA, let alone to the bigs. However, if he is able to work most of those out, I still see him as a 1B.
Last edited by Benihana; 01-20-2012 at 03:28 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
I don't agree. It's LF. The reason older guys move to 1B is because they can't run anymore. But for guys who can still get around, LF is much easier than 1B. There's a lot to playing 1B -- receiving and making tight throws, grounders, line drives, groundballs, foul balls, double plays, bunts, pickoff plays, rundowns, etc., all in much closer space than a LF has.Again, it's the easiest defensive position on the field.
According to redsof72, Duran can't run now. Not a good sign for things down the road.
And I still maintain you're wrong. Why did we (Reds fans) always want to move Adam Dunn from LF to 1B if LF was easier? Why was everyone's first choice to move more athletic Votto to LF and put the less athletic Alonso at 1B if LF was easier?
Do you think Prince Fielder could play LF?
Last edited by Benihana; 01-20-2012 at 04:06 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
The ability to cover ground. Dunn couldn't do it, and Alonso couldn't do it. Plus, Alonso was a trained first baseman.And I still maintain you're wrong. Why did we (Reds fans) always want to move Adam Dunn from LF to 1B if LF was easier? Why was everyone's first choice to move more athletic Votto to LF and put the less athletic Alonso at 1B if LF was easier?
Duran can run just fine. All redsof72 was saying was that he doesn't hustle all the time. He's 20 years old and pretty thin.
1B is a far more complex defensive position. If you disagree with that, you're just being obstinate, IMO.
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