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Thread: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    .792 OPS in a full season league at an age when most prospects haven't played professionally yet or are messing around in the low rookei league. Seems pretty far from a bust IMO. Check back after three more seasons.
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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    .792 OPS in a full season league at an age when most prospects haven't played professionally yet or are messing around in the low rookei league. Seems pretty far from a bust IMO. Check back after three more seasons.
    Looking at the raw numbers doesn't tell us anything about what he can do moving forward though. His OPS was good. He also had a .405 BABIP and struck out nearly 40% of the time he stepped to the plate. When his BABIP returns to a normal level, he is going to struggle to OPS .700 without adding a lot more in game power, more walks or lowering his strikeout rate significantly. Can he do those things? I think the power will happen. Not sure about the walks or strikeouts though.

  4. #18
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Looking at the raw numbers doesn't tell us anything about what he can do moving forward though. His OPS was good. He also had a .405 BABIP and struck out nearly 40% of the time he stepped to the plate. When his BABIP returns to a normal level, he is going to struggle to OPS .700 without adding a lot more in game power, more walks or lowering his strikeout rate significantly. Can he do those things? I think the power will happen. Not sure about the walks or strikeouts though.
    Valid points. He's still a baby. Heck in three years he'll still be a baby. Too early to even speculate about being a bust IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Valid points. He's still a baby. Heck in three years he'll still be a baby. Too early to even speculate about being a bust IMO.
    I will agree there. I am certainly not giving up on him. I think he needs time to grow into his body as well as be given time to adjust to such a large strikezone.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    His strikeouts are definitely disconcerting, but they're overshadowing the progress in other areas he made this season. Raw, toolsy guys like Duran often have previously unknown flaws that get held up to the light in a full season in a tough league. It's not like Hamilton and Yorman didn't have rough seasons either; there was a point in the season where it looked like Hamilton couldn't play any kind of reliable defense and couldn't make enough contact to be taken seriously as a prospect anymore. We can start calling Duran a bust when he flames out before reaching AAA.

  7. #21
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Being that incredibly tall buys him more time, IMO.
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  8. #22
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Wily Mo redux.

    Bust.
    Not even close. WMP was signed to a major league contract. Because of injury and that stupid contract, he was never allowed to fully develop. WMP's talent IMO is/was off the charts, and Duran's... I'm not sure about. WMP had some flashes at the major league level despite his accelerated timeframe in the minors. And Duran was apparently exposed to gamma rays. I also believe he'll end up at 1B, and think he should be moved there this coming season. Might make him feel more involved as a player than standing in the OF.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Most scouts feel that Duran's offensive struggles will worsen as he moves up because he is a "mistake" hitter. The pitcher has to leave a ball out over the plate in one specific spot for Duran to make contact, and when he does, Duran will hit it eight miles. Mistake pitches of this nature get more and more rare as the pitchers get better. Some scouts do not see Duran ever being able to play well at the Double-A level or higher. There are some similarities to B.J. Szymanski.

    Duran has tremendous raw power. That is the positive element that he brings to the table. As a left fielder on defense, he is simply horrendous by the standards that we traditionally set for professionals, even at the Single-A level. He struggles to catch any fly ball in which he has to reach away from his body to snag. Perhaps he will gain coordination as he gets older, but problematic is the fact that he shows little interest in improving in that area.

    Lastly, he is a very poor base runner. Part of this could be a matter of simply being out of shape. There have been numerous examples of Duran being on second and, when attempting to score on a single, slowing down dramatically over the last 45 feet to a point of a jog and getting tagged out on a ball in which it looked as though he would be safe with ease if he had simply continued to sprint. You could watch minor league games for 10 years and never see anyone else do that in this manner.

    Duran is a well-liked guy by his teammates but lacks the hunger and drive to improve that most every major leaguer had on his way to the big leagues. The 2012 season will be a key year for him. You certainly see the power and imposing body, but he has to start working at it.

  10. #24
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Not even close. WMP was signed to a major league contract. Because of injury and that stupid contract, he was never allowed to fully develop. WMP's talent IMO is/was off the charts, and Duran's... I'm not sure about. WMP had some flashes at the major league level despite his accelerated timeframe in the minors. And Duran was apparently exposed to gamma rays. I also believe he'll end up at 1B, and think he should be moved there this coming season. Might make him feel more involved as a player than standing in the OF.
    Okay then, if you want to get picky a poor man's Wily Mo. Whatever Wily Mo's situations, he never lived up to what was expected. Tremendous power. Couldn't take a walk. Swung and missed a lot. I'm not sure how you can say the two aren't comparable. If you want to say that because you don't think Wily Mo ws a bust, fine. But I think his traits are comparable to Wily Mo and that he'll be a bust. I hope not, but if I had to answer now (which is what the OP is asking) I'd say he will indeed someday be considered a bust.

    And just like Wily Mo, IMO.

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Most scouts feel that Duran's offensive struggles will worsen as he moves up because he is a "mistake" hitter. The pitcher has to leave a ball out over the plate in one specific spot for Duran to make contact, and when he does, Duran will hit it eight miles. Mistake pitches of this nature get more and more rare as the pitchers get better. Some scouts do not see Duran ever being able to play well at the Double-A level or higher. There are some similarities to B.J. Szymanski.

    Duran has tremendous raw power. That is the positive element that he brings to the table. As a left fielder on defense, he is simply horrendous by the standards that we traditionally set for professionals, even at the Single-A level. He struggles to catch any fly ball in which he has to reach away from his body to snag. Perhaps he will gain coordination as he gets older, but problematic is the fact that he shows little interest in improving in that area.

    Lastly, he is a very poor base runner. Part of this could be a matter of simply being out of shape. There have been numerous examples of Duran being on second and, when attempting to score on a single, slowing down dramatically over the last 45 feet to a point of a jog and getting tagged out on a ball in which it looked as though he would be safe with ease if he had simply continued to sprint. You could watch minor league games for 10 years and never see anyone else do that in this manner.

    Duran is a well-liked guy by his teammates but lacks the hunger and drive to improve that most every major leaguer had on his way to the big leagues. The 2012 season will be a key year for him. You certainly see the power and imposing body, but he has to start working at it.
    Gives more credence to his future being at 1B. Obviously, he has to learn to hit (and get a better work ethic) first.
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Gives more credence to his future being at 1B.
    If he can't catch fly balls away from his body, he's got no chance at 1B. Errant throws and groundballs will eat him up.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    If he can't catch fly balls away from his body, he's got no chance at 1B. Errant throws and groundballs will eat him up.
    Some guys just have trouble judging fly balls. They just can't do it. Doesn't mean they can't play 1B. Again, it's the easiest defensive position on the field.

    Sounds like he has a lot of issues to work on if he's ever going to get past AA, let alone to the bigs. However, if he is able to work most of those out, I still see him as a 1B.
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-20-2012 at 03:28 PM.
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Again, it's the easiest defensive position on the field.
    I don't agree. It's LF. The reason older guys move to 1B is because they can't run anymore. But for guys who can still get around, LF is much easier than 1B. There's a lot to playing 1B -- receiving and making tight throws, grounders, line drives, groundballs, foul balls, double plays, bunts, pickoff plays, rundowns, etc., all in much closer space than a LF has.
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I don't agree. It's LF. The reason older guys move to 1B is because they can't run anymore. But for guys who can still get around, LF is much easier than 1B. There's a lot to playing 1B -- receiving and making tight throws, grounders, line drives, groundballs, foul balls, double plays, bunts, pickoff plays, rundowns, etc., all in much closer space than a LF has.
    According to redsof72, Duran can't run now. Not a good sign for things down the road.

    And I still maintain you're wrong. Why did we (Reds fans) always want to move Adam Dunn from LF to 1B if LF was easier? Why was everyone's first choice to move more athletic Votto to LF and put the less athletic Alonso at 1B if LF was easier?

    Do you think Prince Fielder could play LF?
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-20-2012 at 04:06 PM.
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  16. #30
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    And I still maintain you're wrong. Why did we (Reds fans) always want to move Adam Dunn from LF to 1B if LF was easier? Why was everyone's first choice to move more athletic Votto to LF and put the less athletic Alonso at 1B if LF was easier?
    The ability to cover ground. Dunn couldn't do it, and Alonso couldn't do it. Plus, Alonso was a trained first baseman.

    Duran can run just fine. All redsof72 was saying was that he doesn't hustle all the time. He's 20 years old and pretty thin.

    1B is a far more complex defensive position. If you disagree with that, you're just being obstinate, IMO.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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