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Thread: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

  1. #31
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The ability to cover ground. Dunn couldn't do it, and Alonso couldn't do it. Plus, Alonso was a trained first baseman.

    Duran can run just fine. All redsof72 was saying was that he doesn't hustle all the time. He's 20 years old and pretty thin.

    1B is a far more complex defensive position. If you disagree with that, you're just being obstinate, IMO.
    I believe 1B is an easier position to play. Call me whatever names you want, but that is my belief. There are only three non-pitchers in the last 20 years that I can remember being close to as tall as Duran- Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, and Corey Hart. Two of them were clearly 1B and the other one (Hart- who is quite fast) is reportedly going to see more and more time at 1B beginning this season. Players that tall are usually not all that mobile (Hart is the exception) and height is a big advantage at 1B (bigger target).

    Mark my words, Duran's future (if he has one) will be at 1B. Maybe not this year or next, but eventually.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #32
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I believe 1B is an easier position to play. Call me whatever names you want, but that is my belief. There are only three non-pitchers in the last 20 years that I can remember being close to as tall as Duran- Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, and Corey Hart. Two of them were clearly 1B and the other one (Hart- who is quite fast) is reportedly going to see more and more time at 1B beginning this season. Players that tall are usually not all that mobile (Hart is the exception) and height is a big advantage at 1B (bigger target).

    Mark my words, Duran's future (if he has one) will be at 1B. Maybe not this year or next, but eventually.
    Think of mobility as the least common denominator of defensive skill. You have to be able to move to get from A to B to fetch the ball. But that does not mean that the less mobility the position requires, the easier the position. If that were the case, catcher would be easiest and CF would be hardest.

    The fact that Duran may flunk OF does not mean he would not also flunk 1B. He will, if given the chance, IMO. There is little question in my mind that 1B is not his eventual position -- it's DH.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #33
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Think of mobility as the least common denominator of defensive skill. You have to be able to move to get from A to B to fetch the ball. But that does not mean that the less mobility the position requires, the easier the position. If that were the case, catcher would be easiest and CF would be hardest.
    And still disagree. You got the concept right but the wrong words: Think of 1B as the least common denominator of defensive skill. Catcher, while clearly not a position that requires mobility, is not the default position that 1B is. You don't see players from all over the diamond getting moved to catcher as their skills (and mobility) diminish.

    The fact that Duran may flunk OF does not mean he would not also flunk 1B. He will, if given the chance, IMO. There is little question in my mind that 1B is not his eventual position -- it's DH.
    That may be, but I see at least an intermediate stop at 1B, especially if he's still playing in the National League.
    Go BLUE!!!

  5. #34
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Think of 1B as the least common denominator of defensive skill. Catcher, while clearly not a position that requires mobility, is not the default position that 1B is. You don't see players from all over the diamond getting moved to catcher as their skills (and mobility) diminish.
    1B is default for guys who can't run and can't throw -- but who can still do some key things. It is not default for guys who can't catch and can't field groundballs on the infield. There are skills that 1B requires that no OF position requires -- physical skills and mental skills. You simply can't deny that.

    Until Duran shows he can learn the skills to play 1B passably, I see no reason to think he'll be there for anywhere near the amount of time he'll put in in the OF.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #35
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    1B is default for guys who can't run and can't throw -- but who can still do some key things. It is not default for guys who can't catch and can't field groundballs on the infield. There are skills that 1B requires that no OF position requires -- physical skills and mental skills. You simply can't deny that.

    Until Duran shows he can learn the skills to play 1B passably, I see no reason to think he'll be there for anywhere near the amount of time he'll put in in the OF.
    1B, to me, is an interesting position. Defensive liabilities can play there, and while they won't necessarily do well, it allows them to mitigate their shortcomings. And that's really what ends up happening most of the time; if an NL team traded for Billy Butler, they'd put him at first base, even though he's clearly a well below-average defender. That said, there's no denying the effect that a guy like Pujols or Votto has when he's patrolling 1B; fewer drives down the line, better chance of fielding bunts, better control on throws home, etc.

  7. #36
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I timed Juan Duran from home to first several times this year as an ABOVE AVERAGE runner. He can move, especially once he gets going. It might not look all that fast, but his strides are long (duh, he is 6' 7"). He is clearly going to lose some of that as he fills his frame out though.

  8. #37
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Here is the test for 1B vs. LF. In his prime, would you rather try to hide Manny Ramirez in LF or would you rather rely on him to complete the out on every ground ball to the IF? Personally, I'd rather my worst skilled defender play LF. Now age and mobility issues may make 1B optimal for some guys because they don't have to cover as much ground on any given play and the run from the dugout isn't as far, but the plays they make are more difficult and far more frequent and it requires more defensive ability IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #38
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Here is the test for 1B vs. LF. In his prime, would you rather try to hide Manny Ramirez in LF or would you rather rely on him to complete the out on every ground ball to the IF? Personally, I'd rather my worst skilled defender play LF. Now age and mobility issues may make 1B optimal for some guys because they don't have to cover as much ground on any given play and the run from the dugout isn't as far, but the plays they make are more difficult and far more frequent and it requires more defensive ability IMO.
    I would rather Manny be at first base, where 97% of the time all he has to do is catch a throw, in the air, from another player.

  10. #39
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would rather Manny be at first base, where 97% of the time all he has to do is catch a throw, in the air, from another player.
    and 80% of those times he'd probably do it. Add all this other times where the 1B routinely saves the other guys throwing errors, he would be no help. Look for 20+ errors from a guy like Phillips and 35+ from SS and 3B with Manny at 1B. Lets not even talk about ground balls or relay plays.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-20-2012 at 07:09 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #40
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    and 80% of those times he'd probably do it.
    You think that Manny Ramirez would fail to convert 20% of throws from infielders? Sure, if he were using a catchers mitt on the wrong hand. Manny converted more than that on baseballs he had to chase down that were tailing away from him.

  12. #41
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I would rather Manny be at first base, where 97% of the time all he has to do is catch a throw, in the air, from another player.
    Manny never played an inning at 1B. That should tell you something.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #42
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You think that Manny Ramirez would fail to convert 20% of throws from infielders? Sure, if he were using a catchers mitt on the wrong hand. Manny converted more than that on baseballs he had to chase down that were tailing away from him.
    I don't mind him at all being in on 3 or 4 plays per game, with most of those being routine fly balls with lots of air under them. Those are the easiest defensive plays there are.

    If a 1B has 10 throws to him per game, I'd guess 2 or 3 won't be easy ones right to him. I would never expect him to dig one out or save one a little off the bag. I think he'd allow more extra runners playing 1B. The error might be on the other guys or it would be an IF hit, but a decent (not great or even good) 1B would make those plays much of the time.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #43
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    I think you guys are severely underestimating catching throws at first base.

  15. #44
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    This will probably get some laughs but so be it....

    Was Wily Mo actually a bust?

    Compare the situation that he was thrust into and what he produced for the entirety of his career, and tell me that the odds would favor a random sample of someone like him exceeding those totals.

    I think WMP actually came pretty close to realizing his potential considering the innate drawbacks to his unique situation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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  17. #45
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    Re: Will Juan Duran be a bust?

    This will probably get some laughs but so be it....

    Was Wily Mo actually a bust?

    Compare the situation that he was thrust into and what he produced for the entirety of his career, and tell me that the odds would favor a random sample of someone like him exceeding those totals.

    I think WMP actually came pretty close to realizing his potential considering the innate drawbacks to his unique situation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"



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