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Thread: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

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    OOOOH YEEEAHHHH!! CarolinaRedleg's Avatar
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    Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t11_a2

    6. Mike Leake, 23, Reds (+36 2/3). Reds GM Walt Jocketty targeted an increase of between 20 and 30 innings for Leake in 2010, but allowed him to slightly surpass that goal. Leake also made his minor-league debut this year, getting two tuneup games in Triple-A. Leake bears watching because he is not a prototypical workhorse. In two major league seasons, the 185-pound Leake is 14-5 in the first half and 6-8 in the second.

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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Leake, first half 2011, 8-4 4.28 era, 2nd half 2011, 4-5 3.33. Obviously, he faded in the second half..

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegsToday View Post
    Leake, first half 2011, 8-4 4.28 era, 2nd half 2011, 4-5 3.33. Obviously, he faded in the second half..
    Unless his mechanics are off this year, he's not going to have a problem going more innings.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Unless his mechanics are off this year, he's not going to have a problem going more innings.
    That isn't true. Plenty of guys have excellent and repeatable mechanics and still get hurt. Throwing a baseball, no matter how good your mechanics are, is very unnatural.

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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Leake bears watching because he is not a prototypical workhorse. In two major league seasons, the 185-pound Leake is 14-5 in the first half and 6-8 in the second.
    I'm just focused on the ridiculousness of this statement. Using won-lost record to determine whether or not a pitcher faded in the 2nd half. He ended his season pitching 17innings and giving up 3 runs in 2 starts against the Cubs.

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegsToday View Post
    I'm just focused on the ridiculousness of this statement. Using won-lost record to determine whether or not a pitcher faded in the 2nd half. He ended his season pitching 17innings and giving up 3 runs in 2 starts against the Cubs.
    Amen
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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    What's up with Leake being on a non contender?

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.
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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    What's up with Leake being on a non contender?
    Yeah, I am not sure how he defines 'contender'. Pretty sure he is referring to how their teams did last year, as opposed to the coming season. Does he mean .500 ball or better? Within x games of the division or wild card team? All the 'contender' teams were in the playoffs.

    I notice the White Sox were also considered 'non-contenders', as were the Giants. The White Sox finished 79-83, same record as the Reds, and they were 16 games back, while the Reds were 17 back. The Giants were 86-76, and finished 8 games back.

    The bigger question is why would it matter whether a pitcher's team was a contender. Do pitchers 'pitch harder' if their team is in contention? I doubt it....
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.
    I agree with this. 6 innings is a small enough difference that it would have happened in spring training and no one would have ever noticed it.

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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    i would not be surprised if after this season, Mike Leake becomes a pitcher similar to Bronson Arroyo.
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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Yeah, I am not sure how he defines 'contender'. Pretty sure he is referring to how their teams did last year, as opposed to the coming season. Does he mean .500 ball or better? Within x games of the division or wild card team? All the 'contender' teams were in the playoffs.

    I notice the White Sox were also considered 'non-contenders', as were the Giants. The White Sox finished 79-83, same record as the Reds, and they were 16 games back, while the Reds were 17 back. The Giants were 86-76, and finished 8 games back.

    The bigger question is why would it matter whether a pitcher's team was a contender. Do pitchers 'pitch harder' if their team is in contention? I doubt it....
    I think maybe he considers it a better excuse for stretching the limit, if they're doing it to try to make the playoffs or win playoff games?
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    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    I think maybe he considers it a better excuse for stretching the limit, if they're doing it to try to make the playoffs or win playoff games?
    that would make sense. it would also make sense to include a minor bias for size of the media market.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I believe in following Verducci's 30 inning rule as a rough estimate in a precautionary way. Leake only jumped 36 innings. I don't think its a huge risk. Homer Bailey in 2009 had a 60 inning jump and has been on the DL with a bum shoulder 3 times since then, but 36 innings doesn't make him that high a risk IMO. I think he'll go 200 innings in 2012 with an ERA right around 4.00.
    I think you demonstrated how arbitrary Verducci's guess is.
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    Re: Leake IDed as "Verducci Effect" candidate

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord View Post
    i would not be surprised if after this season, Mike Leake becomes a pitcher similar to Bronson Arroyo.
    WHICH Bronson Arroyo? The one we've gotten used to seeing, or the abomination we saw last season?
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