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Thread: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

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    2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Looking ahead to Opening Day, I tried to lay out where I think the 35 most relevant minor leaguers (IMO) will end up. A couple of notes- Frazier and Janish could make the Reds OD roster, which would bump Didi and Puckett up to Louisville, a move that should happen anyway by Memorial Day. Obviously there are many other players in the system that I could have included, but so far as I can see, here are the players with the best chance of being relevant to the Reds in the future:
    Code:
    	AAA	AA	A+	A        
    C	Navarro	Fleury	Barnhart	
    1B	Soto		Lutz	
    2B	H.Rod  	Greene	Lohman	Wright
    SS	Janish	Didi   Hamilton	Valor
    3B	E.Camp	Vidal	Buckley	Arias
    LF	Frazier	Puckett	Duran	
    CF	Perez	LaMarre		Waldrop
    RF	Phipps		Y.Rod	
    				
    SP1	Chapman	Sulbaran Corcino Cingrani
    SP2	         Ravin	Lotzkar	Stephenson
    
            Top Three Rookie Leaguers to Watch	
    3B	Gabriel Rosa
    LHP	Amir Garrett
    LHP     Ismael Guillon
    I think that there are some other arms coming back from injury to watch, including Jacob Johnson and Drew Cisco, both of whom could begin in the Dayton rotation. Also, I didn't include relief pitchers, but obviously there are a few guys from the 40 man who will start in Louisville (could include Fisher, Brackman, Judy, etc.) and Donnie Joseph will likely start in AA.
    Last edited by Benihana; 01-23-2012 at 02:23 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Campbell's gone, signed with the M's I believe.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    That's true about Campbell. Also, if Valor makes it Dayton, I think it would happen in the last couple weeks of the year or so. Right now, they're having enough trouble trying to find spots for all their middle infielders at almost every level in the organization.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Stephenson will start in extended spring training and likely will spend all or part of the year with Billings. Some believe that Cingrani will start in Bakersfield. Juan Perez is slated to be the Dayton shortstop. Buckley may move to left field and should be in Dayton.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Stephenson will start in extended spring training and likely will spend all or part of the year with Billings. Some believe that Cingrani will start in Bakersfield. Juan Perez is slated to be the Dayton shortstop. Buckley may move to left field and should be in Dayton.
    Curious as to why you think Stephenson spends time in Billings. Since 2004, no high school starter drafted by the Reds in the first three rounds has not seen his season start in Dayton the year after he was drafted. Granted there are not a bunch of guys to look at within that group, but along with them there were also several other high school arms who were drafted after the third round also head to Dayton that first year after being drafted (Sulbaran & Johnson). So the precedent is there to suggest that while he may see EST, it will likely be due to wanting to keep him out of the cold and control his innings limit a little bit more than it will with wanting him to play with Billings.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Sulbaran actually started in extended, but he really is the key to this because it was clear that he was moved up too quickly and they won't make the same mistake again. Johnson had a season in the GCL before he came to Dayton. Tuttle spent a year in the GCL and a year in Billings. Sisco stayed in extended. Cline mirrored Tuttle. But Sulbaran is the whole key because he was such a clear example of what not to do. He showed up totally, totally unprepared for what he was thrown into and he is just now overcoming it.

    Everything I have heard about Stevenson is totally positive, even from some people who are traditionally tough to impress. I asked about his makeup and was told he is smart, works hard, is coachable, etc., "JUST LIKE JACOB JOHNSON." If you are comparing any player's makeup to Jacob Johnson, you are talking about the cream of the crop. Stuff wise, Stephenson is said to be outstanding, very much justifying the spot in the draft where he was taken.

    All that being said, the same person who spoke glowingly of him also said he would get hammered in the Midwest League right now. You know about the pressures of pitching in Dayton. I have heard coaches talk about 19 year olds shaking on the mound. I have heard pitching coaches say they went back into the clubhouse and saw pitchers bawling their eyes out after getting hit for the first time in their lives.

    Based on the Sulbaran experience, they want to see a guy earn his spot, learn that you have to work to move up, go through some days when you don't have your best stuff and be forced to battle through it, and do all of that before pitching in front of 8,500 fans every night at home.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Sulbaran actually started in extended, but he really is the key to this because it was clear that he was moved up too quickly and they won't make the same mistake again. Johnson had a season in the GCL before he came to Dayton. Tuttle spent a year in the GCL and a year in Billings. Sisco stayed in extended. Cline mirrored Tuttle. But Sulbaran is the whole key because he was such a clear example of what not to do. He showed up totally, totally unprepared for what he was thrown into and he is just now overcoming it.

    Everything I have heard about Stevenson is totally positive, even from some people who are traditionally tough to impress. I asked about his makeup and was told he is smart, works hard, is coachable, etc., "JUST LIKE JACOB JOHNSON." If you are comparing any player's makeup to Jacob Johnson, you are talking about the cream of the crop. Stuff wise, Stephenson is said to be outstanding, very much justifying the spot in the draft where he was taken.

    All that being said, the same person who spoke glowingly of him also said he would get hammered in the Midwest League right now. You know about the pressures of pitching in Dayton. I have heard coaches talk about 19 year olds shaking on the mound. I have heard pitching coaches say they went back into the clubhouse and saw pitchers bawling their eyes out after getting hit for the first time in their lives.

    Based on the Sulbaran experience, they want to see a guy earn his spot, learn that you have to work to move up, go through some days when you don't have your best stuff and be forced to battle through it, and do all of that before pitching in front of 8,500 fans every night at home.
    Some of them started in extended, but wound up in Dayton well before the short seasons began.

    I will just say this.... if the Reds were comfortable with Jacob Johnson going to Dayton, then they probably won't have an issue with Stephenson going to Dayton. Stephenson has much better stuff and if you are right that people are comparing his make up to that of Johnson, he will be just fine. Sulbaran is one guy out of 5 or 6 in the last 7 years who proved that Midwest League was too much for him. Was it because he wasn't mature enough at the time? Maybe. The other guys all handled it very well. Bailey, Wood, Lotzkar (before the injury) and Johnson all showed successful campaigns there. I bet Stephenson starts in extended spring training, but I also bet he is in Dayton before the end of May and will remain there the rest of the year unless an injury happens to occur. I don't think his lack of pro experience is going to be a factor in the decision.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    I thought Johnson started in the rookie league? Second half of the season after the draft. Or am I mis-remembering?
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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I thought Johnson started in the rookie league? Second half of the season after the draft. Or am I mis-remembering?
    I was saying that those guys all started their first year after being drafted in Dayton. IE: Drafted in 2006, Dayton in 2007.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Oh, sorry. My mistake.

    But isn't that the difference? Stephenson didn't play any professional ball after being drafted. His first taste of it will be this year. I think '72 has a pretty good point about the atmosphere in Dayton being intimidating. It might be best to start him off somewhere else to get his feet wet. Even if it's just short-term.
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    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Oh, sorry. My mistake.

    But isn't that the difference? Stephenson didn't play any professional ball after being drafted. His first taste of it will be this year. I think '72 has a pretty good point about the atmosphere in Dayton being intimidating. It might be best to start him off somewhere else to get his feet wet. Even if it's just short-term.
    I don't really think waiting until the June 25th to get Stephenson time in front of 3,000 fans in Billings instead of May for 7,500 in Dayton is going to be a factor. If you start Stephenson in Billings, you essentially put him a full year behind in his timetable.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Back on topic a little bit.... I finished up my 2012 full season projected rosters of 25-26 players (teams often carry that many guys, but have a guy or two "inactive"). What an incredibly difficult task. I am sure some injuries will clear up some things and there will be a few releases as well, but I had about 10 guys who played in the full season leagues last year without a roster spot. I don't envy the guys who have to sit down at the end of spring training and make these decisions.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    All those guys you mentioned except Sulbaran (and Stephenson) had pro experience before coming to Dayton. Sulbaran did not, and when he got to Dayton, he was not prepared for the routine that goes with being a professional. When a prospect goes out and has a start in which he does not record a single out, and then comes back shortly thereafter and has another start when he can't get out of the first inning, as Sulbaran did in 2009, people start getting phone calls from people they don't want to get those kind of phone calls from. And they start trying to explain to the prospect, hey, you have to take your bullpen sessions seriously between starts, you have do your running to keep your legs strong, you have to get your head into the game at 7:00, not 7:20. And he does not care about any of that stuff because he struck out Pudge Rodriguez in the WBC on ESPN.

    And when all that plays out, people look at each other and they say, "we will not make that mistake again."

    Fortunately, Sulbaran was a great kid and he had family support and he was able to get through it without losing all his confidence, but it was not something that you want to see.

    Things change daily in baseball, but I would bet anything that Stephenson will make some starts in Billings unless he absolutely outclasses the hitters in extended spring training in April and May.

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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really think waiting until the June 25th to get Stephenson time in front of 3,000 fans in Billings instead of May for 7,500 in Dayton is going to be a factor. If you start Stephenson in Billings, you essentially put him a full year behind in his timetable.
    Not necessarily. If he does well, he could skip a level at some point. If our A ball team was just about anything OTHER than Dayton, I doubt it would even be a problem or a consideration. But Dayton is not like other A ball teams. Heck, it's not like ANY other minor league team in many regards.
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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    Re: 2012 Organizational Depth Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Not necessarily. If he does well, he could skip a level at some point. If our A ball team was just about anything OTHER than Dayton, I doubt it would even be a problem or a consideration. But Dayton is not like other A ball teams. Heck, it's not like ANY other minor league team in many regards.
    The Reds aren't the team that skips guys over levels like that. At least not guys like this. College guys going from rookie to High A, sure. But Stephenson isn't going to go from Billings at 19 to High A at 20. He isn't going to go from High A at 21 to AAA at 22. He is a guy who is going to hit every level on the way up from wherever he makes his first start at. If they start him in Billings, he will be in Dayton next year because there won't be enough time for him to do enough of both Billings and Dayton in 2012 for him to start in High A in 2013.

    As far as what happened with Sulbaran.... I think his situation is different from the others. He was clearly not mature enough his first time through Dayton. As you noted, he didn't take his work seriously. There were reasons for that, which I won't go into and he has gotten beyond that. The other guys all didn't seem to have that problem. If the Reds were going to change their philosophy because of Sulbaran, they wouldn't have had Jacob Johnson in Dayton when they did. Sure, he had some experience as a pro. In the Gulf Coast League, with no one watching but the players and coaches. Stephenson probably starts the year in extended spring training, but I would say the odds that he makes it to Billings are less than 20%. Maybe I am completely misreading things here, but the Reds haven't been shy about promoting their premiere guys at all. Stephenson is exactly that type of guy.


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