2012 Organizational Depth Chart

[Benihana]

Looking ahead to Opening Day, I tried to lay out where I think the 35 most relevant minor leaguers (IMO) will end up. A couple of notes- Frazier and Janish could make the Reds OD roster, which would bump Didi and Puckett up to Louisville, a move that should happen anyway by Memorial Day. Obviously there are many other players in the system that I could have included, but so far as I can see, here are the players with the best chance of being relevant to the Reds in the future:

	AAA	AA	A+	A        
C	Navarro	Fleury	Barnhart	
1B	Soto		Lutz	
2B	H.Rod  	Greene	Lohman	Wright
SS	Janish	Didi   Hamilton	Valor
3B	E.Camp	Vidal	Buckley	Arias
LF	Frazier	Puckett	Duran	
CF	Perez	LaMarre		Waldrop
RF	Phipps		Y.Rod	
				
SP1	Chapman	Sulbaran Corcino Cingrani
SP2	         Ravin	Lotzkar	Stephenson

        Top Three Rookie Leaguers to Watch	
3B	Gabriel Rosa
LHP	Amir Garrett
LHP     Ismael Guillon

I think that there are some other arms coming back from injury to watch, including Jacob Johnson and Drew Cisco, both of whom could begin in the Dayton rotation. Also, I didn't include relief pitchers, but obviously there are a few guys from the 40 man who will start in Louisville (could include Fisher, Brackman, Judy, etc.) and Donnie Joseph will likely start in AA.

[HokieRed]

Campbell's gone, signed with the M's I believe.

[camisadelgolf]

That's true about Campbell. Also, if Valor makes it Dayton, I think it would happen in the last couple weeks of the year or so. Right now, they're having enough trouble trying to find spots for all their middle infielders at almost every level in the organization.

[redsof72]

Stephenson will start in extended spring training and likely will spend all or part of the year with Billings. Some believe that Cingrani will start in Bakersfield. Juan Perez is slated to be the Dayton shortstop. Buckley may move to left field and should be in Dayton.

[dougdirt]

Stephenson will start in extended spring training and likely will spend all or part of the year with Billings. Some believe that Cingrani will start in Bakersfield. Juan Perez is slated to be the Dayton shortstop. Buckley may move to left field and should be in Dayton.

Curious as to why you think Stephenson spends time in Billings. Since 2004, no high school starter drafted by the Reds in the first three rounds has not seen his season start in Dayton the year after he was drafted. Granted there are not a bunch of guys to look at within that group, but along with them there were also several other high school arms who were drafted after the third round also head to Dayton that first year after being drafted (Sulbaran & Johnson). So the precedent is there to suggest that while he may see EST, it will likely be due to wanting to keep him out of the cold and control his innings limit a little bit more than it will with wanting him to play with Billings.

[redsof72]

Sulbaran actually started in extended, but he really is the key to this because it was clear that he was moved up too quickly and they won't make the same mistake again. Johnson had a season in the GCL before he came to Dayton. Tuttle spent a year in the GCL and a year in Billings. Sisco stayed in extended. Cline mirrored Tuttle. But Sulbaran is the whole key because he was such a clear example of what not to do. He showed up totally, totally unprepared for what he was thrown into and he is just now overcoming it.

Everything I have heard about Stevenson is totally positive, even from some people who are traditionally tough to impress. I asked about his makeup and was told he is smart, works hard, is coachable, etc., "JUST LIKE JACOB JOHNSON." If you are comparing any player's makeup to Jacob Johnson, you are talking about the cream of the crop. Stuff wise, Stephenson is said to be outstanding, very much justifying the spot in the draft where he was taken.

All that being said, the same person who spoke glowingly of him also said he would get hammered in the Midwest League right now. You know about the pressures of pitching in Dayton. I have heard coaches talk about 19 year olds shaking on the mound. I have heard pitching coaches say they went back into the clubhouse and saw pitchers bawling their eyes out after getting hit for the first time in their lives.

Based on the Sulbaran experience, they want to see a guy earn his spot, learn that you have to work to move up, go through some days when you don't have your best stuff and be forced to battle through it, and do all of that before pitching in front of 8,500 fans every night at home.

[dougdirt]

Sulbaran actually started in extended, but he really is the key to this because it was clear that he was moved up too quickly and they won't make the same mistake again. Johnson had a season in the GCL before he came to Dayton. Tuttle spent a year in the GCL and a year in Billings. Sisco stayed in extended. Cline mirrored Tuttle. But Sulbaran is the whole key because he was such a clear example of what not to do. He showed up totally, totally unprepared for what he was thrown into and he is just now overcoming it.

Everything I have heard about Stevenson is totally positive, even from some people who are traditionally tough to impress. I asked about his makeup and was told he is smart, works hard, is coachable, etc., "JUST LIKE JACOB JOHNSON." If you are comparing any player's makeup to Jacob Johnson, you are talking about the cream of the crop. Stuff wise, Stephenson is said to be outstanding, very much justifying the spot in the draft where he was taken.

All that being said, the same person who spoke glowingly of him also said he would get hammered in the Midwest League right now. You know about the pressures of pitching in Dayton. I have heard coaches talk about 19 year olds shaking on the mound. I have heard pitching coaches say they went back into the clubhouse and saw pitchers bawling their eyes out after getting hit for the first time in their lives.

Based on the Sulbaran experience, they want to see a guy earn his spot, learn that you have to work to move up, go through some days when you don't have your best stuff and be forced to battle through it, and do all of that before pitching in front of 8,500 fans every night at home.

Some of them started in extended, but wound up in Dayton well before the short seasons began.

I will just say this.... if the Reds were comfortable with Jacob Johnson going to Dayton, then they probably won't have an issue with Stephenson going to Dayton. Stephenson has much better stuff and if you are right that people are comparing his make up to that of Johnson, he will be just fine. Sulbaran is one guy out of 5 or 6 in the last 7 years who proved that Midwest League was too much for him. Was it because he wasn't mature enough at the time? Maybe. The other guys all handled it very well. Bailey, Wood, Lotzkar (before the injury) and Johnson all showed successful campaigns there. I bet Stephenson starts in extended spring training, but I also bet he is in Dayton before the end of May and will remain there the rest of the year unless an injury happens to occur. I don't think his lack of pro experience is going to be a factor in the decision.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I thought Johnson started in the rookie league? Second half of the season after the draft. Or am I mis-remembering?

[dougdirt]

I thought Johnson started in the rookie league? Second half of the season after the draft. Or am I mis-remembering?

I was saying that those guys all started their first year after being drafted in Dayton. IE: Drafted in 2006, Dayton in 2007.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Oh, sorry. My mistake.

But isn't that the difference? Stephenson didn't play any professional ball after being drafted. His first taste of it will be this year. I think '72 has a pretty good point about the atmosphere in Dayton being intimidating. It might be best to start him off somewhere else to get his feet wet. Even if it's just short-term.

[dougdirt]

Oh, sorry. My mistake.

But isn't that the difference? Stephenson didn't play any professional ball after being drafted. His first taste of it will be this year. I think '72 has a pretty good point about the atmosphere in Dayton being intimidating. It might be best to start him off somewhere else to get his feet wet. Even if it's just short-term.

I don't really think waiting until the June 25th to get Stephenson time in front of 3,000 fans in Billings instead of May for 7,500 in Dayton is going to be a factor. If you start Stephenson in Billings, you essentially put him a full year behind in his timetable.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I don't really think waiting until the June 25th to get Stephenson time in front of 3,000 fans in Billings instead of May for 7,500 in Dayton is going to be a factor. If you start Stephenson in Billings, you essentially put him a full year behind in his timetable.

Not necessarily. If he does well, he could skip a level at some point. If our A ball team was just about anything OTHER than Dayton, I doubt it would even be a problem or a consideration. But Dayton is not like other A ball teams. Heck, it's not like ANY other minor league team in many regards.

[dougdirt]

Not necessarily. If he does well, he could skip a level at some point. If our A ball team was just about anything OTHER than Dayton, I doubt it would even be a problem or a consideration. But Dayton is not like other A ball teams. Heck, it's not like ANY other minor league team in many regards.

The Reds aren't the team that skips guys over levels like that. At least not guys like this. College guys going from rookie to High A, sure. But Stephenson isn't going to go from Billings at 19 to High A at 20. He isn't going to go from High A at 21 to AAA at 22. He is a guy who is going to hit every level on the way up from wherever he makes his first start at. If they start him in Billings, he will be in Dayton next year because there won't be enough time for him to do enough of both Billings and Dayton in 2012 for him to start in High A in 2013.

As far as what happened with Sulbaran.... I think his situation is different from the others. He was clearly not mature enough his first time through Dayton. As you noted, he didn't take his work seriously. There were reasons for that, which I won't go into and he has gotten beyond that. The other guys all didn't seem to have that problem. If the Reds were going to change their philosophy because of Sulbaran, they wouldn't have had Jacob Johnson in Dayton when they did. Sure, he had some experience as a pro. In the Gulf Coast League, with no one watching but the players and coaches. Stephenson probably starts the year in extended spring training, but I would say the odds that he makes it to Billings are less than 20%. Maybe I am completely misreading things here, but the Reds haven't been shy about promoting their premiere guys at all. Stephenson is exactly that type of guy.

[Mario-Rijo]

The Reds aren't the team that skips guys over levels like that. At least not guys like this. College guys going from rookie to High A, sure. But Stephenson isn't going to go from Billings at 19 to High A at 20. He isn't going to go from High A at 21 to AAA at 22. He is a guy who is going to hit every level on the way up from wherever he makes his first start at. If they start him in Billings, he will be in Dayton next year because there won't be enough time for him to do enough of both Billings and Dayton in 2012 for him to start in High A in 2013.

As far as what happened with Sulbaran.... I think his situation is different from the others. He was clearly not mature enough his first time through Dayton. As you noted, he didn't take his work seriously. There were reasons for that, which I won't go into and he has gotten beyond that. The other guys all didn't seem to have that problem. If the Reds were going to change their philosophy because of Sulbaran, they wouldn't have had Jacob Johnson in Dayton when they did. Sure, he had some experience as a pro. In the Gulf Coast League, with no one watching but the players and coaches. Stephenson probably starts the year in extended spring training, but I would say the odds that he makes it to Billings are less than 20%. Maybe I am completely misreading things here, but the Reds haven't been shy about promoting their premiere guys at all. Stephenson is exactly that type of guy.

[brand.chips]

This is where you start realizing that not all of these players will remain in the organization beyond spring training. There will likely be some injuries and others also added to the Disabled List for depth.

Andy Leer is from North Dakota and went to college at the University of Mary. He was an infielder with the Snappers in 2011, and at Instructional League, he was moved behind the plate. Philip Chapman and Matt Koch were both drafted in 2011. Chapman hit well, but he was a college guy playing in the GCL. Koch signed late and played in a dozen or so games in Elizabethton. Both are old enough that they should move up to Beloit, but based on numbers, one could stay in Extended Spring Training. Matt Parker was a non-drafted free agent singing a couple of years ago. He’s a defensive guy. Knudson played with Beloit in 2011, but he missed most of the second half of the season with a groin injury. He’s one that they will need to keep because he is solid defensively and has some offensive potential. Jairo Rodriguez is a strong-armed backstop without much offensive upside.