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Thread: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

  1. #121
    Member traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What I think is sometimes 62nd round picks become Mike Piazza.

    Sometimes 1st round picks become Reggie Taylor.

    And sometimes when guys just keep producing, they turn into Nelson Cruz, or even Ryan Ludwick.

    And I am not saying Paul Janish is any of those guys. I'm saying he's younger than Valdez, a better defender, possibly a better bat and makes acquiring him with anything other than money a waste of resources. The reds should trade talent to get talent, not to acquire replacement players.
    Begging the question on all fronts.

    The Reds wanted a backup IFer and traded a generic minor league relief pitcher that was not very high on their list, apparently.

    And why wouldn't that be a waste of cash if you think Valdez is junk?

    And I still haven't figured out how any of that relates to pointing out that sometimes guys come out of nowhere and are stars.
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  3. #122
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It might be debatable, but the number of innings Valdez has at other positions, 3B, 2B is relatively negligible. I did get some thing wrong though. Valdez actually has 2399 innings to Janish's 2155.

    Valdez is a 2B that can play SS.
    Janish is a SS that can play 2B.

    As for Jocketty liking him as a hitter, I hate to say this, but so what? He liked Gomes, Taveras, and Cairo too.
    Gomes put up close to an .800 OPS as a Red. Cairo has been nothing but a plus for this team. Not sure what the argument is with those 2.

  4. #123
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    My all time favorite argument. The same could be said for Nelson Cruz at one time too. And nobody took him.

    I'll agree that Horst might not be needed. I don't think Valdez is either. I don't think his veteranness is necessary as he has a total of 1032 PA's in six years. that's a lot of sitting.

    Janish has 975 PA's, has more innings in the field, is younger and a better defender. The bat is probably a wash.

    I'm not against getting players. I'm against getting what you already have, paying more for what you already have.

    pedro, I saw Janish last year too. awful. I saw something else in 2010. Completely different hitter. I have no idea why, but I suspect Janish isn't mentally up to being "The Man" at SS. I think he might be a very good backup though.
    So, if that's the stance, why wouldn't you want Valdez? I agree that Janish' play is better when he doesn't play every day. Personally, I think its because he lacks the strength and stamina to hold up over the grind and not any mental issue, but either way, the result is extended PT turns a .650ish OPS guy into a .520ish OPS guy. Janish and Valdez both exist to make the plays at SS should the starter go down for an extended period. If that's the case, why wouldn't you want a second guy to share that role with Janish? If the stance is Janish gets worse the more he plays, do you really want him to be the only option for 4 months if Cozart is lost for the season on Memorial Day? I think Janish will be perfectly acceptable as a defense first SS who can play 3 or 4 days each week if Cozart goes down or for 5 or so starts per month if Cozart does well (but I'd prefer a bat if the role doesn't include extensive time at SS). But if he's forced into the bigger role and we want to limit him to 3 or 4 days per week to keep him from cratering, who plays those other days? Up to the point of the Valdez acquisition, the Reds didn't have anyone else that I wanted to see getting that much PT at the SS position. That much PT at SS requires a better defender than anyone who is on hand and deemed major league ready. I think Negron and Gregorious would be acceptable, but neither is a major league option at the outset of ST IMO. That leaves Frazier, Valaika, Cairo, et al and none plays enough defense for my taste given the amount of PT at SS we're talking about.

    Horst was no better than the 4th option to get the call should the Reds need a lefty. Chapman, Mahay and Zavada are all ahead of him. Travis Webb might surpass him and, by mid season, Joseph, Thurman and Manno may all be better options. I think the chances of Horst logging any time in Cincy at all were beyond remote. That was evident when he was the first choice to be removed from the 40 man when guys like Negron, Valaika, Jordan Smith and Carlos Fisher could also have been chosen. The subsequent signings of Mahay and Zavada was further evidence that the Reds just weren't interested in Horst at the major league level. The Reds gave up what amounts to nothing to get to improve a very thin set of options capable of playing SS with the defensive ability that the position demands. Whats not to like?
    Last edited by mth123; 01-27-2012 at 04:09 AM.
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  5. #124
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Here's the Philly paper's take on the Valdez-Horst trade:

    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/p...xpendable.html
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  6. #125
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Here's the Philly paper's take on the Valdez-Horst trade:

    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/p...xpendable.html
    So, the Phillies are worried about the difference between $930K and the MLB minimum salary? Gotta love the nonsense reasons that front offices like to try to slip by their fans.
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  7. #126
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Cash is easier to replace than talent. Here is a list of this year's FA SS's
    Code:
    Player		Last Team	Pos	Age	AB	HR	AVG    RBI	Status
    Drew Sutton	Red Sox		SS	28	54	0	.315	7	Signed by Braves; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Alex Gonzalez	Braves		SS	34	564	15	.241	56	Signed by Brewers; 1 year, $4MM
    Cesar Izturis	Orioles		SS	31	30	0	.200	1	Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Rafael Furcal	Cardinals	SS	33	333	8	.231	28	Signed by Cardinals; 2 years; $14MM
    W. Bloomquist	Dbacks		SS	33	350	4	.266	26	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3.8MM
    John McDonald	Dbacks		SS	37	227	2	.229	22	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3MM
    Jose Reyes	Mets		SS	28	537	7	.337	44	Signed by Marlins; 6 years, $106MM
    Jimmy Rollins	Phillies	SS	32	567	16	.268	63	Signed by Phillies; 3 years, $33MM
    Clint Barmes	Astros		SS	32	446	12	.244	39	Signed by Pirates; 2 years, $10.5MM
    Marco Scutaro	Red Sox		SS	35	395	7	.299	54	Signed by Red Sox; 1 year, $6MM club option
    Pedro Ciriaco	Pirates		SS	26	33	0	.303	6	Signed by Red Sox; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Y. Betancourt	Brewers		SS	29	556	13	.252	68	Signed by Royals; 1 year, $2MM
    H Nakajima*	Seibu Lions	SS	29	566	16	.297	100	Signed by Sebu Lions(Japan); Yankees posted, no deal
    Ryan Theriot	Cardinals	SS	32	442	1	.271	47	Unrestricted
    Edgar Renteria	Reds		SS	36	299	5	.251	36	Unrestricted
    Felipe Lopez	Rays		SS	31	141	2	.206	11	Unrestricted
    Ronny Cedeno	Pirates		SS	28	413	2	.249	32	Unrestricted, Club Option Declined
    Here are the FA 2B
    Code:
    Player		Last Team	Pos	Age	AB	HR	AVG	RBI	Status
    Kelly Johnson	Blue Jays	2B	29	545	21	.222	58	Signed by Blue Jays via arbitration
    Jack Wilson	Braves		2B	33	214	0	.243	11	Signed by Braves; 1 year, $1MM
    Brooks Conrad	Braves		2B	31	103	4	.223	13	Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Aaron Hill	Dbacks		2B	29	520	8	.246	61	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $11MM
    J Hairston Jr.	Brewers		2B	35	337	5	.270	31	Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $6MM
    Mark Ellis	Rockies		2B	34	480	7	.248	41	Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $8.75MM
    Jose Lopez	Marlins		2B	27	21	8	.216	21	Signed by Indians; 1 year, $900K (Minor League)
    Nick Punto	Cardinals	2B	33	133	1	.278	20	Signed by Red Sox; 2 years, $3MM
    B. Phillips	Reds		2B	30	610	18	.300	82	Signed by Reds; 1 year, $12MM club option
    Ramon Santiago	Tigers		2B	32	258	5	.260	30	Signed by Tigers; 2 years, $4MM
    Jamey Carroll	Dodgers		2B	37	452	0	.290	17	Signed by Twins; 2 years, $7MM
    Jeff Keppinger	Giants		2B	31	379	6	.277	35	Unrestricted
    Aaron Miles	Dodgers		2B	34	454	3	.275	45	Unrestricted
    Carlos Guillen	Tigers		2B	36	95	3	.232	13	Unrestricted
    I get that with all that went on with the Latos, Marshall and Madsen deals, perhaps a backup IF wasn't the highest priority, But a few of these guys went cheap, and a bunch of them are better options as pinch hitters. Not to mention Valaika, Janish, Negron, Rodriguez already in the system.

    Coffey left, and had success. Not a ton of success, but he has had 2 good years in the three since he left. Belisle has been very good in Colorado. rough that first year, then two very good years following that. I hate giving up young LH pitching. hate. it. They take longer to develop, but are usually worth it. As much as everyone loathed Majewski, everyone seemed willing to wait on Bray. Coffey and Belisle were replaceable, because RH relievers grow on trees in the wild. LH's need to be cultivated.

    Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.
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  8. #127
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    AND I just realized Ondrusek is right handed.

    nevermind.
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  9. #128
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.
    In theory, I agree, but Jocketty's had to do some serious dollar-squeezing to fit in everything he's trying to do. Using prospects in lieu of cash to get what the team needs is nothing new. Just hope he's right about the Reds probably not missing Horst.

    I'll also say I respect your stance on left-handed pitching. Oddly enough, I have a similar thing with shortstops, which is why I'm on the other side of this one. I'm old-school on shortstop defense and I hate, hate, hate it when the team runs someone out there who isn't actually good at the position, even though I understand the offense-defense tradeoff. And I really didn't like it that the Reds had only two sufficient options at either the majors or Triple-A, and that's with holding my nose where Janish's hitting is concerned. (Disclaimer: I am aware Kris Negron exists, but if Janish's bat is borderline unacceptable, Negron's shouldn't be allowed anywhere near Cincinnati.)

    In the end, Valdez may or may not be better than Janish overall, but he's one more needed body between us and the abyss of watching non-shortstops playing shortstop. Which is why I was saying all offseason that there was going to be a guy, I just didn't know who it would be.
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  10. #129
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Cash is easier to replace than talent. Here is a list of this year's FA SS's
    Code:
    Player		Last Team	Pos	Age	AB	HR	AVG    RBI	Status
    Drew Sutton	Red Sox		SS	28	54	0	.315	7	Signed by Braves; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Alex Gonzalez	Braves		SS	34	564	15	.241	56	Signed by Brewers; 1 year, $4MM
    Cesar Izturis	Orioles		SS	31	30	0	.200	1	Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Rafael Furcal	Cardinals	SS	33	333	8	.231	28	Signed by Cardinals; 2 years; $14MM
    W. Bloomquist	Dbacks		SS	33	350	4	.266	26	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3.8MM
    John McDonald	Dbacks		SS	37	227	2	.229	22	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3MM
    Jose Reyes	Mets		SS	28	537	7	.337	44	Signed by Marlins; 6 years, $106MM
    Jimmy Rollins	Phillies	SS	32	567	16	.268	63	Signed by Phillies; 3 years, $33MM
    Clint Barmes	Astros		SS	32	446	12	.244	39	Signed by Pirates; 2 years, $10.5MM
    Marco Scutaro	Red Sox		SS	35	395	7	.299	54	Signed by Red Sox; 1 year, $6MM club option
    Pedro Ciriaco	Pirates		SS	26	33	0	.303	6	Signed by Red Sox; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Y. Betancourt	Brewers		SS	29	556	13	.252	68	Signed by Royals; 1 year, $2MM
    H Nakajima*	Seibu Lions	SS	29	566	16	.297	100	Signed by Sebu Lions(Japan); Yankees posted, no deal
    Ryan Theriot	Cardinals	SS	32	442	1	.271	47	Unrestricted
    Edgar Renteria	Reds		SS	36	299	5	.251	36	Unrestricted
    Felipe Lopez	Rays		SS	31	141	2	.206	11	Unrestricted
    Ronny Cedeno	Pirates		SS	28	413	2	.249	32	Unrestricted, Club Option Declined
    Here are the FA 2B
    Code:
    Player		Last Team	Pos	Age	AB	HR	AVG	RBI	Status
    Kelly Johnson	Blue Jays	2B	29	545	21	.222	58	Signed by Blue Jays via arbitration
    Jack Wilson	Braves		2B	33	214	0	.243	11	Signed by Braves; 1 year, $1MM
    Brooks Conrad	Braves		2B	31	103	4	.223	13	Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
    Aaron Hill	Dbacks		2B	29	520	8	.246	61	Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $11MM
    J Hairston Jr.	Brewers		2B	35	337	5	.270	31	Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $6MM
    Mark Ellis	Rockies		2B	34	480	7	.248	41	Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $8.75MM
    Jose Lopez	Marlins		2B	27	21	8	.216	21	Signed by Indians; 1 year, $900K (Minor League)
    Nick Punto	Cardinals	2B	33	133	1	.278	20	Signed by Red Sox; 2 years, $3MM
    B. Phillips	Reds		2B	30	610	18	.300	82	Signed by Reds; 1 year, $12MM club option
    Ramon Santiago	Tigers		2B	32	258	5	.260	30	Signed by Tigers; 2 years, $4MM
    Jamey Carroll	Dodgers		2B	37	452	0	.290	17	Signed by Twins; 2 years, $7MM
    Jeff Keppinger	Giants		2B	31	379	6	.277	35	Unrestricted
    Aaron Miles	Dodgers		2B	34	454	3	.275	45	Unrestricted
    Carlos Guillen	Tigers		2B	36	95	3	.232	13	Unrestricted
    I get that with all that went on with the Latos, Marshall and Madsen deals, perhaps a backup IF wasn't the highest priority, But a few of these guys went cheap, and a bunch of them are better options as pinch hitters. Not to mention Valaika, Janish, Negron, Rodriguez already in the system.

    Coffey left, and had success. Not a ton of success, but he has had 2 good years in the three since he left. Belisle has been very good in Colorado. rough that first year, then two very good years following that. I hate giving up young LH pitching. hate. it. They take longer to develop, but are usually worth it. As much as everyone loathed Majewski, everyone seemed willing to wait on Bray. Coffey and Belisle were replaceable, because RH relievers grow on trees in the wild. LH's need to be cultivated.

    Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.
    Of what's left, that list is slim pickings. You still are begging questions. Despite the Phillies apparent concern for about $500K, I'm guessing they could care less about cash and would rather take a flyer on a player, a non-roster player at that. Since it takes two parties to make a deal, you assume that cash was an option, when it is more likely they didn't want our money.

    But then, this is a lot of discussion about two players that are nowhere on the radar for the likelihood of being difference makers, no matter how they are used. Heck, Horst got a ST invite for his new team, they aren't even ready to use up Valdez' roster spot for him.

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  11. #130
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Not really making a mountain of it.

    At the very least it was something to talk about.

    At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.

    IMO, you do not trade for Paul Janish. Ever. You buy him. When you trade for him, you are paying twice. in salary and talent. Small market teams like the Reds should not do that. This is my opinion, it's how I think a franchise should be run. If Valdez makes the 25 man roster, and he will, he's the 25th man.

    You don't trade for the 25th man. He's not a defensive replacement at SS, because you don't do that. He'll be filler, giving Cozart a day off. He'll get 200 or so AB's, most of those as a starter giving days off to BP, Cozart and Rolen. And since he won't significantly out hit Janish, since his best position is 2B, and since Janish defensively is still the best SS on the 40 man roster, is anyone really ok with this? Do we really think that Cozart won't be ready for OD, 9 months removed from TJ surgery on his non throwing arm? I guess that is possible. But with the following on the 40-man after Cozart, Janish, Valaika, Negron, Rodriguez, Gregorious, and Cairo, I think it was covered.

    It's less me complaining about the individual, and more me being upset with the type of acquisition. There were in house options, and FA's that only cost money. In house candidates might burn options, except for Valaika who has already started his clock.

    I don't want to hoard prospects. I want them so they can acquire major league talent. Valdez barely qualifies, but his age, bat etc. beg the question of, why spend talent on this guy?
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  12. #131
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Not really making a mountain of it.

    At the very least it was something to talk about.

    At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.
    I agree with this. If anything, Valdez might have a slightly better bat, but the gap there is not as large as the gap between the two defensively.

    Not a huge deal, but I don't really see how Valdez makes the club any stronger.

    And even though Horst is not a super duper prospect, he's a pretty decent LHP that has had success pretty much every step of the way. If Valdez was free, I'd say meh. But I'm even less excited about the combination of giving up a decent LHP and taking on $930K, when you are already paying another sub-replacement level player (Janish) $850K. Yes, those dollars do add up and paying $1.8M on replacement level talent is $1M too much.

    All this, however, means very little if Cozart can stay healthy and give us 150 games. Hopefully he can do that, because watching Valdez and Janish getting 500 PA's between them may make my eyes bleed.

  13. #132
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Can someone clarify? is Ondrusek LH or RH? Baseball-reference says RH. But I've seen references to him being LH, and I can't say that i really remember.
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  14. #133
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    He is a righty.

  15. #134
    Member traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Not really making a mountain of it.

    At the very least it was something to talk about.

    At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.

    IMO, you do not trade for Paul Janish. Ever. You buy him. When you trade for him, you are paying twice. in salary and talent. Small market teams like the Reds should not do that. This is my opinion, it's how I think a franchise should be run. If Valdez makes the 25 man roster, and he will, he's the 25th man.

    You don't trade for the 25th man. He's not a defensive replacement at SS, because you don't do that. He'll be filler, giving Cozart a day off. He'll get 200 or so AB's, most of those as a starter giving days off to BP, Cozart and Rolen. And since he won't significantly out hit Janish, since his best position is 2B, and since Janish defensively is still the best SS on the 40 man roster, is anyone really ok with this? Do we really think that Cozart won't be ready for OD, 9 months removed from TJ surgery on his non throwing arm? I guess that is possible. But with the following on the 40-man after Cozart, Janish, Valaika, Negron, Rodriguez, Gregorious, and Cairo, I think it was covered.

    It's less me complaining about the individual, and more me being upset with the type of acquisition. There were in house options, and FA's that only cost money. In house candidates might burn options, except for Valaika who has already started his clock.

    I don't want to hoard prospects. I want them so they can acquire major league talent. Valdez barely qualifies, but his age, bat etc. beg the question of, why spend talent on this guy?
    More begging the question.

    Who says "you never trade for the 25th man?" That seems limiting to how a major league roster is constructed.

    And who exactly is the 25th man? The 12th reliever? The 5th OFer? An extra infielder? The 5th starter? Looks like that is a big ole "it depends."

    Finally, did they spend "talent" on the guy? While I get there are types of acquisitions, I am unfamiliar with this heirarchy that you keep referring to. Is that in a GM manual somewhere?
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  16. #135
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    It's in my manual.

    your 5th starter is not the 25th man. He's the fifth starter. Do you think Valdez had more value last year than Vance Worley? Of course you don't.

    IMO, small market teams should not trade for Paul Janish types. Buy them on the cheap? yes. But scouting, signing, and developing Horst costs money they cannot waste, especially once you see that development realized as he did pitch major league innings.

    You don't agree. clearly. But I haven't been condescending in my arguments.
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