Reds 9th in Offseason Rankings

[LegallyMinded]

Nick Carfado of the Boston Globe had one of the first pieces rankings ML clubs' off seasons I've seen this year. He has the Reds at number nine, behind the the Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Cards, Phillies and others.

So, my question is: What do you think? Is number 9 a fair assessment, or is he selling the Reds short?

Personally, I agree with the high rankings for the Angels and Yankees, but I think he's too optimistic about the acquisitions the Tigers and Phillies made. The Tigers overpaid for Fielder, and his offensive impact is going to be partially offset by the defensive cost of having Cabrera playing third. The Phillies, meanwhile, overpaid for Papelbon, are trying to replace Ryan Howard with Ty Wigginton for at least part of the year, and finished their shopping by signing Juan Pierre: not what I'd call a sterling off season.

As for the Cards, I'm split: I loved the Beltran signing, but obviously that doesn't completely offset the loss of Pujols. I suppose my final evaluation would have to be reserved for when Oswalt decides if he'll be a Cardinal or not, but as it stands now, I'd say the Reds probably did better than St. Louis this off season.

[cbowen2112]

I see the Reds as having at least the Top Off season from the NL. I do not see how the Cards, D-Backs and Phillies made that many more strides than the Reds. He is definitely putting us short. We should be in the Top 5, with the other 4 above us AL teams. Once could argue that the Marlins had a great Off-season, but if you look at the caliber of players we have gotten in return vs what we lost that were Major League starters now, we come out on top by far.

Great job Walt and the rest of his staff for an exciting Off-season for once in a long time!

Reds got these guys with ML experience and some success:

Latos
Marshall
Madson
Ludwick
Navarro
Harris
Francis
Valdez

Reds lost these guys with ML experience/success and some not enough time to view success rate:

Alonso
Horst
Wood
Sappelt
Cordero
Volquez*
Renteria*


*These guys have had success, but it has been a while.

Yes, the Reds did lose some high chip prospects, but we have no clue how their careers will end up. So, looking at this would tell you we came out on top. Many of the guys we traded have potential, but are ?. The free agents we lost were replaced by better guys, flat out.

[_Sir_Charles_]

First off, I think this is a ranking of the teams, not rankings of how they graded their off seasons.

I think the Cards are WAY over-ranked. Several reasons....

1. Wainwright should not be expected to come back and perform at Cy Young-type caliber. I expect him to be inconsistent this year. Next year...look out.

2. Carpenter is another year older. His numbers have begun to decline, I expect that to continue.

3. Garcia got a ton of work thrown at him last year and I expect a slight regression from him. But still a solid #3.

4. Berkman had a mammoth-like resurgence last year. I don't think anybody expects him to replicate it. He should tail off considerably.

5. Beltran is an excellent player, but fragile. The odds of him staying healthy all year are about the same as Scott Rolen's. And when healthy, he's STILL a considerable drop off from the normal Poo-holes production.

6. New manager/pitching coach and the loss of Albert will show.

Personally, I'm picking them 3rd in the Central with a good shot to finish lower. I like the direction of the Pirates & Cubs. They're not there yet of course, but they are moving in the right direction.

[Blitz Dorsey]

If he's staying we're the 9th-best team in MLB after our offseason moves, he's pretty close to dead on. However, if he's saying the Reds' offseason was only the 9th-best in MLB, he needs his creds revoked.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I re-read it. It's team rankings AFTER the off season moves. He's saying we're the 9th best team in the majors. And the Cards are the FOURTH!?!?!?

[Griffey012]

The Cards should be left ahead of us until we put ourselves in front of them. Remember how we were a shoo in to the playoffs last year when Wainwright went down?

[Edd Roush]

I re-read it. It's team rankings AFTER the off season moves. He's saying we're the 9th best team in the majors. And the Cards are the FOURTH!?!?!?

When I try to look at the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers on paper, I really have a difficult time thinking there is a major differences between the three teams. Seeing them spread out to 4th, 9th and 16th seems like too much difference to me.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I re-read it. It's team rankings AFTER the off season moves. He's saying we're the 9th best team in the majors. And the Cards are the FOURTH!?!?!?

Probably giving respect to the defending champs, despite the HUGE loss of Pujols. As well as the underrated losses of LaRussa and Duncan. Sorry, but adding Beltran and Oswalt (if he signs) and getting a healthy Wainwright back (if that actually happens) doesn't make up for losing the biggest offensive threat in baseball.

But no question the Cards will still be a formidable opponent this season. I feel the Reds are better, but then again, I'm biased. Ha.

[hebroncougar]

I don't see how anyone can complain about the Cards being ranked ahead of the Reds. The Reds haven't put up. This year, it's time to put up or shut up. 2012 will tell a lot about where this Reds franchise goes for the next 5-6 years. I think the Reds are hoping for more exposure, and more revenue to keep some of these guys around. That doesn't happen w/o winning this year. They've pretty much pushed all their chips in. I commend them for it.

[757690]

I'm confused by the article. Is it a ranking of teams in terms of overall talent, or of their off-season moves. It's not clear the way it is written, but the rankings suggest it's overall talent.

[Captain Hook]

I like this one better.It's a new season and the teams have new players/rosters and in the Cards case a completely new coaching staff.I have no problem with the Reds being ranked ahead of those guys.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/1...n-out-in-style

[757690]

I don't see how anyone can complain about the Cards being ranked ahead of the Reds. The Reds haven't put up. This year, it's time to put up or shut up. 2012 will tell a lot about where this Reds franchise goes for the next 5-6 years. I think the Reds are hoping for more exposure, and more revenue to keep some of these guys around. That doesn't happen w/o winning this year. They've pretty much pushed all their chips in. I commend them for it.

I agree the Reds have to prove themselves, however...

Reds and Cards were only 5 games apart according to Pythag last season.

Reds added a TOR starter, a top set up man and closer without losing anyone expected to contribute in 2012.

Cards lost their francishe player and replaced him with an aging All-Star. They get back a TOR starter, but coming off Tommy John and lost a solid #3 starter and their set up man. Plus they lost a Hall of Fame manager and pitching coach.

Not hard to argue that at the very least, they are even after all of that.

[redsmetz]

First off, I think this is a ranking of the teams, not rankings of how they graded their off seasons.

I think the Cards are WAY over-ranked. Several reasons....

1. Wainwright should not be expected to come back and perform at Cy Young-type caliber. I expect him to be inconsistent this year. Next year...look out.

2. Carpenter is another year older. His numbers have begun to decline, I expect that to continue.

3. Garcia got a ton of work thrown at him last year and I expect a slight regression from him. But still a solid #3.

4. Berkman had a mammoth-like resurgence last year. I don't think anybody expects him to replicate it. He should tail off considerably.

5. Beltran is an excellent player, but fragile. The odds of him staying healthy all year are about the same as Scott Rolen's. And when healthy, he's STILL a considerable drop off from the normal Poo-holes production.

6. New manager/pitching coach and the loss of Albert will show.

Personally, I'm picking them 3rd in the Central with a good shot to finish lower. I like the direction of the Pirates & Cubs. They're not there yet of course, but they are moving in the right direction.

First, I agree that I think it's a mistake to say the Cardinals off season moves necessarily outranked the Reds. This is just a quick response, I understand you're giving your opinion as to what you expect and perhaps this is just a nuance, but I can't say with any certainty that what you're expecting is a given to happen. Maybe I'm more prone to "mealy" words like "may" and "might" in some of these circumstances.

I can't say it's a given, for example, that Wainwright will struggled. Some players have (Volquez being an example last season), but there have been some who haven't. I'm not certain what the norm is for this type of comeback. Likewise, I agree that it's logical to think Berkman won't repeat his 2011 season, but then again, I don't think the Cards need an exact replica of that.

I do give them plus points for the Beltran signing as a recovery from losing Pujols. In the long run, I think St. Louis is in a better position not being saddled with an expensive long term deal with just one player who could be aging rapidly during that time, particularly towards the end of it.

And while LaRussa and Duncan seemed to weave magic together, I won't assume that there will be a drop off with Matheny et al. Yes, it's been known to happen, but I've learned to never count the Cardinals out.

I agree with the poster who said we need to prove we've had the better off-season.

[Vottomatic]

After winning a World Series, alot of teams tend to get fat and kick into laziness. Atleast that's my experience. That's why it's so hard to repeat. Plus everyone is gunning for you.

And with the Cards, age is an ever increasing factor for so many of their players. If they got fat in the offseason, didn't stay in shape, lost their mental edge, whatever.........I can see an underachieving year following their overachievement last year. It happened with the Reds in '11.

The Reds have alot of guys on 1 year contracts or 1 year remaining that have alot to prove. And these players we've been calling "young" and "full of potential" should be reaching that potential at this point. Really, there are no excuses.

And last year's Dayton team was called by many to be the most talented Dayton team ever........and some of those guys should start making leaps due to mental and physical maturity. We saw it with Mesoraco and others in the past. So, this should be a farm system season where we see the lower level players start their journey upward finally.

And the front office showed me this offseason that they are willing to finally make changes and maybe take some chances. If some of these guys start to falter or don't improve, I can see them being dealt to fill other needs. I think Castellini, after '10, wanted to keep things together therefore not many changes. But hopefully, he's seen what these positive moves do for the fanbase in terms of excitement, and can see that they need to make more moves like these. And above all, they've learned that pitching wins championships.

As good as the Cards may look on paper, they are getting old. At some point these guys are going to start breaking down and it won't be pretty.

[mth123]

First off, I think this is a ranking of the teams, not rankings of how they graded their off seasons.

I think the Cards are WAY over-ranked. Several reasons....

1. Wainwright should not be expected to come back and perform at Cy Young-type caliber. I expect him to be inconsistent this year. Next year...look out.

2. Carpenter is another year older. His numbers have begun to decline, I expect that to continue.

3. Garcia got a ton of work thrown at him last year and I expect a slight regression from him. But still a solid #3.

4. Berkman had a mammoth-like resurgence last year. I don't think anybody expects him to replicate it. He should tail off considerably.

5. Beltran is an excellent player, but fragile. The odds of him staying healthy all year are about the same as Scott Rolen's. And when healthy, he's STILL a considerable drop off from the normal Poo-holes production.

6. New manager/pitching coach and the loss of Albert will show.

Personally, I'm picking them 3rd in the Central with a good shot to finish lower. I like the direction of the Pirates & Cubs. They're not there yet of course, but they are moving in the right direction.

I don't know. The defense in St. Louis is much improved with Berkman at 1b and Beltran in RF and Furcal at SS and Theriot off the team. They lost Pujols, but Beltran, Berkman and Holiday is still the best middle of the order in the NL. Wainwright is the key, If he is 75% of his pre-injury self, they'll have the best rotation in the divison as well. The Reds have a better and deeper bench and a way better bullpen, but top three in the rotation and middle three of the order are the major things a team needs and I'd give the Cards the edge in those areas. I really like what the Reds have done and I'm picking them, but, if Wainwight is some resemblence of his former self, the Cardinals are a stronger team in 2012 even without Pujols IMO. The Reds need Bailey to stay healthy and join Latos and Cueto as a top 50 starter in baseball and they need some combination of Ludwick, Heisey, Rolen, Francisco and/or Mesoraco to become that third force in the middle of the order. I'm hoping they can piece it together, but I have doubts that the Manager will be able to deploy them properly even if they do.

I don't trust pitchers coming off of injury, so I'm picking the Reds, but if Wainwright comes back, the Cardinals will be very, very strong IMO and some guys in Cincy (at least one starter and one bat) will need to step forward to counter it.