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Thread: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

  1. #151
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    My only worry is that Janish will outperform Valdez and they'll send Janish down only because he has options to keep from losing Valdez.
    Since Cozaert is an exceptional wild card at being even a major league SS, it's nice to have 2 other options.

    That's all Valdez is, another option, something we desparately needed.

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  3. #152
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    I wouldn't worry about Janish outperforming anyone.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  4. #153
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Since Cozaert is an exceptional wild card at being even a major league SS, it's nice to have 2 other options.

    That's all Valdez is, another option, something we desparately needed.
    Perhaps because of the injury, but his short stint was impressive and his minor league pedigree is good. I think he is a question mark, which I think is what you meant by your analogy, but has performed well enough to project as being at least average at the position, both with the stick and defensively. All things considered, that level of performance will benefit the team.
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  5. #154
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Perhaps because of the injury, but his short stint was impressive and his minor league pedigree is good. I think he is a question mark, which I think is what you meant by your analogy, but has performed well enough to project as being at least average at the position, both with the stick and defensively. All things considered, that level of performance will benefit the team.
    I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

    He had 38 PA, zero walks.

    A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

    Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

    His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

    With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.

  6. #155
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.
    TJ surgery is routine these days. Janish himself had it while in the minors, and to his throwing arm. Cozart's surgery was to his left elbow. Not a complete non-issue, but nothing to be real worried about.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

    He had 38 PA, zero walks.

    A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

    Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

    His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

    With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.
    The problem as I see it is that if Cozart fails or sustains a long-term injury, neither Janish or Valdez are decent options - if this club plans on contending.

    Depth is nice, but if the Reds need to rely on this depth more than occasionally then they are probably in trouble.

  8. #157
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I wouldn't worry about Janish outperforming anyone.
    This.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

    He had 38 PA, zero walks.

    A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

    Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

    His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

    With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.
    The results for 38 PA is completely irrelevant to this conversation. He clearly demonstrated MLB talent both at the plate in the field. His minor league results are the relevant indicator, and offensively he should be a positive addition to the offense's bottom line, and at least neutral defensively.

    For the record, I had to eat crow for those who were begging for him last year much earlier. Not calling him up probably wouldn't have made a difference in the big picture since he wasn't a pitcher, but that misstep by management could have given them more than 38 PAs in the show to project for this season, which is evidenced by their handing him the job going into this season.
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  10. #159
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible...

    Bum

  11. #160
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    The results for 38 PA is completely irrelevant to this conversation. He clearly demonstrated MLB talent both at the plate in the field. His minor league results are the relevant indicator, and offensively he should be a positive addition to the offense's bottom line, and at least neutral defensively.
    Isn't that, more or less, what I said?

  12. #161
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible...

    Bum
    The grass is always greener on the other side, I guess.

    Code:
    	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	Fld	WAR
    2010	363	.258	.306	.360	1.9	1.1
    2011	300	.249	.294	.341   -5.0	0.0
    	663	.254	.300	.351   -3.1	1.1
    	
    2010	228	.260	.338	.385	1.2	1.1
    2011	366	.214	.259	.262	4.2    -0.4
    	594	.231	.289	.308	5.4	0.7
    Over their last season's worth of playing time, they're basically the same guy production wise - Wilson has a slight edge that you certainly couldn't detect with your eyes. Valdez has been a better hitter. Janish has been a better fielder. It more or less comes out a wash.

    The idea that either guys is clearly better (that is, much more likely to outproduce the other given the same opportunity) is just silly and seems to be to be based in a visceral reaction from having the privilege of watching Janish suck -- and not having been able to watch Valdez.

    I get that people really don't want Janish on the team. I'd love to have a better backup too. But the reality is that they are very similar players -- guys are quality defensive IFs who have played primarily at SS and some at 3B and 2B and who are poor hitters. Try to project them for 2012 and the bars of uncertainty around either players' performance significantly overlaps with the other guy.

    It's completely possible that the Reds don't miss Horst at all. But let's not delude ourselves that one crappy hitting, good fielding 25th man is better than the other. It assumes way too much about our ability to differentiate between part-time players in small samples. Janish is not a good player and arguing that Valdez isn't much better is not to defend Janish so much as it is an effort to assess Valdez realistically.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-30-2012 at 01:59 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #162
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The grass is always greener on the other side, I guess.

    Code:
    	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	Fld	WAR
    2010	363	.258	.306	.360	1.9	1.1
    2011	300	.249	.294	.341   -5.0	0.0
    	663	.254	.300	.351   -3.1	1.1
    	
    2010	228	.260	.338	.385	1.2	1.1
    2011	366	.214	.259	.262	4.2    -0.4
    	594	.231	.289	.308	5.4	0.7
    Over the season's worth of playing time, they're basically the same guy production wise - Wilson has a slight edge. Valdez has been a better hitter. Janish has been a better fielder.

    The idea that either guys is clearly better (that is, much more likely to outproduce the other given the same opportunity) is just silly and seems to be to be based in a visceral reaction from having the privilege of watching Janish suck -- and not having been able to watch Valdez.

    I get that people really don't want Janish on the team. The reality is that they are very similar players -- guys are quality defensive IFs who have played primarily at SS and some at 3B and 2B and who are poor hitters. Try to project them for 2012 and the bars of uncertainty around either players' performance significantly overlaps with the other guy.

    It's completely possible that the Reds don't miss Horst. But let's not delude ourselves that one crappy hitting, good fielding 25th man is better than the other. It assumes way too much about our ability to differentiate between part-time players in small samples.
    Valdez is better (and clearly a better hitter) and knows his job and has no problem with that being his job. For those that want to continue to hold onto this belief that Janish is actually a MLB player, carry-on for another 11 pages. I will just be happy that he is done and that Dusty won't be able to play him an excessive amount in the coming season. War means nothing to me; I will continue to go by real stats and actually watching players (as opposed to stats created by people that don't want to watch players).

    11 pages! Hilarious!

    Bum

  14. #163
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible...

    Bum
    That was one of the worst uses of hyperbole in the history of language.

  15. #164
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Valdez is better (and clearly a better hitter) and knows his job and has no problem with that being his job. For those that want to continue to hold onto this belief that Janish is actually a MLB player, carry-on for another 11 pages. I will just be happy that he is done and that Dusty won't be able to play him an excessive amount in the coming season. War means nothing to me; I will continue to go by real stats and actually watching players (as opposed to stats created by people that don't want to watch players).

    11 pages! Hilarious!

    Bum
    don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. I said it before, I'll say it again. You don't trade for Paul Janish... you buy him. You buy him, you buy Juan Castro's. You buy them you shouldn't trade for them, especially when you already have them.

    Valdez is just Janish with a Latin last name and a few more miles. That's it. And if you THINK Valdez has value, then you think Janish has value.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #165
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    Re: Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I said it before, I'll say it again. You don't trade for Paul Janish... you buy him. You buy him, you buy Juan Castro's. You buy them you shouldn't trade for them, especially when you already have them.

    Valdez is just Janish with a Latin last name and a few more miles. That's it. And if you THINK Valdez has value, then you think Janish has value.
    Couldn't you say the exact same thing about Jeremy Horst?

    But you'd only have to say it once.


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