MLB.com Top 100 Prospects

[mth123]

What if SD wanted him rather one of Grandal or Alonso would you have kept them over Hamilton?

Absolutely. No contest IMO. If Hamilton actually does learn the skills to stick at SS (big if) and actually becomes a 100 SB per year player, he won't be as valuable as Alonso even if Alonso is destined to be a ho hum 830ish OPS 1B who has to play out of position in LF.

[TRF]

I told you before- find me a list in the world other than TRF's that ranks Sulbaran ahead of Corcino (or Stephenson for that matter). It's not just the "baseball media elite", it's everyone at this point.

Of course that could change, but for now it's the reality.

in 2011, Corcino doubled his IP, 71 to 139. He's short, listed at 5'11' but is probably shorter than that. He's had large WHIP's at every level until last year. I think we'll see a major regression from him in 2012 if he's in Bakersfield. Meanwhile, Sulbaran, in a hitters league gave up the same number of HR's as Corcino, with about the same k/9. Against tougher competition. And while he also took a big leap in IP, it hasn't been as drastic as Corcino over the last 4 years (35, 28, 71,139).

So, I'm projecting a bit. I think Sulbaran's arm is more used to the workload. I think his frame is better for handling said workload.

I'm also pretty sure I'm allowed to have my opinion, and question why rankings are done the way they are. IMO. Sulbaran is more polished and has more upside. I think the step forward he took is similar to the one Corcino took, but at a higher level. I don't know how much it cost the Reds to sign Corcino. But if I remember correctly, Sulbaran's signing was very expensive for the 30th round, $500K.

So, yes. I think Sulbaran is the better bet going forward.

[RedLegsToday]

And while he also took a big leap in IP, it hasn't been as drastic as Corcino over the last 4 years (35, 28, 71,139).

I'm not sure why you would be worried about this at all? I am assuming, since Billings doesn't start until June, that Corcino would have been in the instructional league. I presume that in the instructional league they throw and throw and throw. Last year was the first year Corcino was in a full-season league, so, of course he is going to have more in-game innings, but, that doesn't mean he did that much more throwing than the previous year.

[TRF]

I'm not sure why you would be worried about this at all? I am assuming, since Billings doesn't start until June, that Corcino would have been in the instructional league. I presume that in the instructional league they throw and throw and throw. Last year was the first year Corcino was in a full-season league, so, of course he is going to have more in-game innings, but, that doesn't mean he did that much more throwing than the previous year.

Ages 17 and 18, 0 starts. Age 19, 15 starts, age 20 26 starts. half of age 19 was in Dayton. It's a big jump in IP for a young, small guy. It's worth noting is all.

[dougdirt]

Corcino has better stuff than Sulbaran. Better fastball, better breaking ball (especially because he controls it better) and even on the change. Corcino has better control too, without question.

[Benihana]

in 2011, Corcino doubled his IP, 71 to 139. He's short, listed at 5'11' but is probably shorter than that. He's had large WHIP's at every level until last year. I think we'll see a major regression from him in 2012 if he's in Bakersfield. Meanwhile, Sulbaran, in a hitters league gave up the same number of HR's as Corcino, with about the same k/9. Against tougher competition. And while he also took a big leap in IP, it hasn't been as drastic as Corcino over the last 4 years (35, 28, 71,139).

So, I'm projecting a bit. I think Sulbaran's arm is more used to the workload. I think his frame is better for handling said workload.

I'm also pretty sure I'm allowed to have my opinion, and question why rankings are done the way they are. IMO. Sulbaran is more polished and has more upside. I think the step forward he took is similar to the one Corcino took, but at a higher level. I don't know how much it cost the Reds to sign Corcino. But if I remember correctly, Sulbaran's signing was very expensive for the 30th round, $500K.

So, yes. I think Sulbaran is the better bet going forward.

What doug said. Also, Sulbaran's higher signing bonus means nothing. Sulbaran was an American HS kid who had struck out Ivan Rodriguez in the WBC. He had all the leverage in the world.

Corcino was signed as a 17 year old kid out of the Dominican, in the days before those types (especially pitchers) got very significant signing bonuses. Apples and oranges.

Plus, Johnny Cueto (who is also sub-6' and is a decent comp for Corcino) signed for <$50K. Does that mean he is worse than Kyle Lotzkar, who got a signing bonus more than 10x that amount?

[TRF]

What doug said. Also, Sulbaran's higher signing bonus means nothing. Sulbaran was an American HS kid who had struck out Ivan Rodriguez in the WBC. He had all the leverage in the world.

Corcino was signed as a 17 year old kid out of the Dominican, in the days before those types (especially pitchers) got very significant signing bonuses. Apples and oranges.

Plus, Johnny Cueto (who is also sub-6' and is a decent comp for Corcino) signed for <$50K. Does that mean he is worse than Kyle Lotzkar, who got a signing bonus more than 10x that amount?

what?

Yorman and Duran, that same year, combined for over 4.5 mil in signing bonuses. Ynoa got 4.25 mil that year by himself.

Please.

Cueto was signed when bonuses for latin players were low, not Corcino. And Cueto is an exception on the success scale. Short RH pitchers success rates are small, their longevity even smaller. Cueto and Oswalt are exceptions, not the rule.

And 30th round picks don't have leverage. He fell that far because other teams thought he was going to college. If he had openly declared he was going to play pro ball, he was a 1st or early 2nd round pick. He was generally considered that talented. Corcino was not. Ynoa got 4.25 based on talent. He pitched 9 innings and underwent TJ surgery. ouch.

I can't find a reference to Corcino's signing bonus, but it seems he wasn't rated as highly as Ismael Guillon.

[Benihana]

And 30th round picks don't have leverage. He fell that far because other teams thought he was going to college. If he had openly declared he was going to play pro ball, he was a 1st or early 2nd round pick. He was generally considered that talented. Corcino was not. Ynoa got 4.25 based on talent. He pitched 9 innings and underwent TJ surgery. ouch.

I can't find a reference to Corcino's signing bonus, but it seems he wasn't rated as highly as Ismael Guillon.

What about Amir Garrett? Did he have leverage in the 22nd round when he got $1MM? HS players get drafted in late rounds all the time and get Sulbaran-type money. Matt Fairel got a lot of money in the 35th round too, does that make him all that?

On the other hand, Latin players emerge from nowhere all the time. Corcino is not the exception. Is Humberto Valor a better prospect than Didi Gregorius because he got a significantly higher signing bonus? Is Juan Duran significantly better than Neftali Soto?

Say all you want, but right now Corcino is the better prospect. The entire baseball-following world, other than yourself, seems to agree with me.

[TRF]

What about Amir Garrett? Did he have leverage in the 22nd round when he got $1MM? HS players get drafted in late rounds all the time and get Sulbaran-type money. Matt Fairel got a lot of money in the 35th round too, does that make him all that?

On the other hand, Latin players emerge from nowhere all the time. Corcino is not the exception. Is Humberto Valor a better prospect than Didi Gregorius because he got a significantly higher signing bonus? Is Juan Duran significantly better than Neftali Soto?

Say all you want, but right now Corcino is the better prospect. The entire baseball-following world, other than yourself, seems to agree with me.

I remember how the baseball world was completely enamored of Alex Gordon. He finally broke out at age 27. The baseball world CAN be wrong. It happens. In fact, most of the baseball world is comprised of lemmings, repeating what the first guy wrote.

Sulbaran and Corcino had very similar seasons. Then adjust for level and park factors and you see just how good Subaran was. He was a top 5 pitcher in that league, easily. A hitter's league. I really hope Corcino has just as good a season this year in Bakersfield, But I imagine a big uptick in HR's allowed.

Sulbaran has his own hill to climb. The difference in hitting between High A and AA is a bit wider than the one that Corcino is facing.

[Benihana]

I remember how the baseball world was completely enamored of Alex Gordon. He finally broke out at age 27. The baseball world CAN be wrong. It happens. In fact, most of the baseball world is comprised of lemmings, repeating what the first guy wrote.

Sulbaran and Corcino had very similar seasons. Then adjust for level and park factors and you see just how good Subaran was. He was a top 5 pitcher in that league, easily. A hitter's league. I really hope Corcino has just as good a season this year in Bakersfield, But I imagine a big uptick in HR's allowed.

Sulbaran has his own hill to climb. The difference in hitting between High A and AA is a bit wider than the one that Corcino is facing.

Interesting that you'd bring up Alex Gordon by name, a player that DID break out and is now one of the better players in his division.

But let's just look at OUR history regarding that player- you and me.

Me (last offseason/pre-breakout): We should trade for Alex Gordon before he breaks out. I'd much prefer him to Francisco or Sappelt.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...enihana+gordon

You (this offseason/post-breakout): The Royals should and would be willing to trade Alex Gordon to the Reds for Travis Wood, Jared Burton and Dave Sappelt.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...+gordon&page=2

Sure, sometimes the "Baseball World" is wrong. Sometimes I am wrong. Sometimes you are right. Now is not one of those times.

[TRF]

I picked Gordon precisely because he broke out. About 4 years after he was supposed to. And looking at his stats, one of these things is not like the others. He's in fact more likely what he was pre 2011.

Simply put, Corcino and Sulbaran had similar seasons. Sulbaran did it in a tougher league conducive to hitters. Smaller parks. Both were top 5 pitchers in their respective leagues.

I believe Sulbaran is the better prospect. I believe He's going to shine in AA.

I also think my trade proposal for Gordon is very close to what netted the Reds Marshall, which I find eerie.

[dougdirt]

To be fair, there is a significant difference in the walk rates between the two players. Corcino walked 5.8% of the batters he faced. Sulbaran was at 8.3%. Both are acceptable, but Corcino's is significantly better than average, while Sulbaran is on the edge of average.

Where I am really with you though is the potential for Sulbaran to shine in AA. His last two months of the season, particularly with his control, were very impressive (24.5% K rate, 5.7% walk rate). If he can bring those rates forward with him, he should see plenty of success in Pensacola.

[Benihana]

I picked Gordon precisely because he broke out. About 4 years after he was supposed to. And looking at his stats, one of these things is not like the others. He's in fact more likely what he was pre 2011.

Simply put, Corcino and Sulbaran had similar seasons. Sulbaran did it in a tougher league conducive to hitters. Smaller parks. Both were top 5 pitchers in their respective leagues.

I believe Sulbaran is the better prospect. I believe He's going to shine in AA.

I also think my trade proposal for Gordon is very close to what netted the Reds Marshall, which I find eerie.

Listen, I hope and think Sulbaran will do well in AA this year. I just don't think he is as good of a prospect as Corcino at the moment. He may well become a better major leaguer. But enough on that.

As far as your logic on Gordon goes, I think you are terribly off the mark. I don't even think Dayton Moore would stay on the phone long enough to hear the end of your trade proposal. Two of the guys you proposed moving were essentially let go by the Reds for nothing. Two more were throw-ins to a deal. The only guy who was remotely considered a centerpiece was traded as part of a package for a middle reliever. Your proposal didn't miss the ballpark, it wasn't even in the same universe.

[TRF]

Listen, I hope and think Sulbaran will do well in AA this year. I just don't think he is as good of a prospect as Corcino at the moment. He may well become a better major leaguer. But enough on that.

As far as your logic on Gordon goes, I think you are terribly off the mark. I don't even think Dayton Moore would stay on the phone long enough to hear the end of your trade proposal. Two of the guys you proposed moving were essentially let go by the Reds for nothing. Two more were throw-ins to a deal. The only guy who was remotely considered a centerpiece was traded as part of a package for a middle reliever. Your proposal didn't miss the ballpark, it wasn't even in the same universe.

I proposed three players for Gordon. 2 of whom were packaged for Marshall.

After he just posted this line for 2010: .215 .315 .355 .670

He's as likely to go back to his pre 2011 numbers as he is to match them. In fact, more likely. Care to bet whether or not Wood/Sappelt provide more value to Chicago than Gordon does to KC? I bet it won't even be close.

[Benihana]

I proposed three players for Gordon. 2 of whom were packaged for Marshall.

After he just posted this line for 2010: .215 .315 .355 .670

He's as likely to go back to his pre 2011 numbers as he is to match them. In fact, more likely. Care to bet whether or not Wood/Sappelt provide more value to Chicago than Gordon does to KC? I bet it won't even be close.

Yes, I'll bet. Name the terms.