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Thread: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

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    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    This was on MLBTR which would mean they are out on Oswalt which is fine by me.

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    Member mroby85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    This was on MLBTR which would mean they are out on Oswalt which is fine by me.
    I wish we could have Oswalt instead of washed up Scott Rolen.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by mroby85 View Post
    I wish we could have Oswalt instead of washed up Scott Rolen.
    Honestly, Oswalt's season last year wasn't any better than Rolen's. They were both injured the majority of the year and Oswalt just barely broke the 100 IP mark. It just isn't a deal that would make sense for the reds.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    While I still think Oswalt could have a productive year for us, I do agree that it doesn't make a ton of sense. I'm especially encouraged to hear Homer has bulked up a bit, if he can put it together and stay healthy he should have a better year than Oswalt. We'll see!

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    Honestly, Oswalt's season last year wasn't any better than Rolen's. They were both injured the majority of the year and Oswalt just barely broke the 100 IP mark. It just isn't a deal that would make sense for the reds.
    Roy Oswalt 139 IP , 3.69 ERA - only his 2nd in the last 9 under 200IP
    That would have made him 4th in IP and 2nd in ERA last year amongst Reds starters.

    Rolen's WAR .6, Oswalt 1.7 (Only Leake and Cueto higher amongst Reds starts last year, last year was the only sub 3 WAR of Oswalts Career - odds are he's at worst our #2 in terms of production by the end of the year, in fact his 2010 season with the phillies(2.8), and his 2010 season with the astros(2.3) - each by itself would have led the reds in WAR) He's 3 more good years from being a potential HOFer.

    Cueto/Leake combined - 6.4 WAR
    Latos - 2.6 WAR
    Arroyo, Bailey combined - .2 WAR
    Wood, Volquez, Willis combined - (-.8) WAR

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    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    Roy Oswalt 139 IP , 3.69 ERA - only his 2nd in the last 9 under 200IP
    That would have made him 4th in IP and 2nd in ERA last year amongst Reds starters.

    Rolen's WAR .6, Oswalt 1.7 (Only Leake and Cueto higher amongst Reds starts last year, last year was the only sub 3 WAR of Oswalts Career - odds are he's at worst our #2 in terms of production by the end of the year, in fact his 2010 season with the phillies(2.8), and his 2010 season with the astros(2.3) - each by itself would have led the reds in WAR) He's 3 more good years from being a potential HOFer.

    Cueto/Leake combined - 6.4 WAR
    Latos - 2.6 WAR
    Arroyo, Bailey combined - .2 WAR
    Wood, Volquez, Willis combined - (-.8) WAR
    To me, WAR means nothing. The wins that the Reds had with Rolen on the field the last three years are enough for me to say i would rathe have him out there than Oswalt.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    To me, WAR means nothing. The wins that the Reds had with Rolen on the field the last three years are enough for me to say i would rathe have him out there than Oswalt.
    ...what? How does this make even the slightest bit of sense? How can you just so blatantly disregard numbers? And what about the wins Philadelphia had with Oswalt on the field the last year and a half? Do those just not matter?

    You're wrong when you say that Oswalt's 2011 season wasn't more valuable than Scott Rolen's. It absolutely was. I don't see how there is much of an argument to be made there. I can understand not being an advocate of signing him due to financial reasons or the worry that management would then do something drastic with Bailey or Leake, but Roy Oswalt would definitely be a huge asset to this team. It would sure up our SP depth problem and could push Arroyo out of many of his starts (certainly a good thing).

    Oswalt had a back problem last year, but still put up a sub 4 ERA and FIP. He ended the year especially strong and even if he isn't the 200 IP model of consistency he once was (which he could still be - he threw 211 in 2010) he would be a reallllly good bet to put up 170 worth around 3 or 4 wins. And on a one year deal, that would be a steal.

    I'd bet almost anything that Oswalt bounces back a lot stronger than Rolen does in 2012.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by [deleted] View Post
    ...what? How does this make even the slightest bit of sense? How can you just so blatantly disregard numbers? And what about the wins Philadelphia had with Oswalt on the field the last year and a half? Do those just not matter?

    You're wrong when you say that Oswalt's 2011 season wasn't more valuable than Scott Rolen's. It absolutely was. I don't see how there is much of an argument to be made there. I can understand not being an advocate of signing him due to financial reasons or the worry that management would then do something drastic with Bailey or Leake, but Roy Oswalt would definitely be a huge asset to this team. It would sure up our SP depth problem and could push Arroyo out of many of his starts (certainly a good thing).

    Oswalt had a back problem last year, but still put up a sub 4 ERA and FIP. He ended the year especially strong and even if he isn't the 200 IP model of consistency he once was (which he could still be - he threw 211 in 2010) he would be a reallllly good bet to put up 170 worth around 3 or 4 wins. And on a one year deal, that would be a steal.

    I'd bet almost anything that Oswalt bounces back a lot stronger than Rolen does in 2012.
    Rolen got us to the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. Enough said.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by takealeake View Post
    Rolen got us to the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. Enough said.
    Well he was certainly a key member of a team that made the playoffs, yes. Don't really see how that has any bearing on Oswalt's value.

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    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Roy O is getting up there, and I don't think it would be a good investment for a team that doesn't have too much money to play with.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    This is probably the wrong place to put this, but I hate sabermetrics or whatever they are called. I think the whole "War" thing is dumb. I don't care what Oswalt's "War" was last year. I think he is a better pitcher than both Bailey and Arroyo. Whether his WAR was below them or not, I'd rather have him out there. I think these stats are overplayed.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomaswaynem View Post
    This is probably the wrong place to put this, but I hate sabermetrics or whatever they are called. I think the whole "War" thing is dumb. I don't care what Oswalt's "War" was last year. I think he is a better pitcher than both Bailey and Arroyo. Whether his WAR was below them or not, I'd rather have him out there. I think these stats are overplayed.
    Posts like this are fascinating to me. What's the cause for such a backlash against WAR? Or Sabermetrics in general? Do you know what WAR really is? Or how it is calculated? What about something like wOBA? It's just a stat pulled directly from numbers. From the game. How can you argue with numbers? Obviously there is no one end-all stat, but why immediately and stubbornly tune out those that professional analysts, historians, statisticians, and writers favor as being the most illustrative?

    The obvious go-to answer is that some people are simply rooted in tradition and refuse to see things any way other than how they were raised (not saying this about you in particular, of course). I can't understand how these people can't see what a dangerous line of thinking this is. To reflexively shut down an idea simply because it is different is just so mind bogglingly ignorant to me - especially in an age where it's hard to argue that traditionalist stats like Wins and Batting Average aren't totally irrelevant.

    The great irony to this particular post, of course, is that WAR rates Oswalt as being more valuable than either Arroyo or Bailey.
    Last edited by [deleted]; 01-27-2012 at 04:32 PM.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    I'm actually 25 and wouldn't say I am traditional at all. I just hate how everything is broken down into 19 different stats. FIP, FIPX, WAR, STA, AT&T, WEBN. I just don't like it. I like the eye test. I don't need advance metric stats to tell me David Wright would be better in our lineup than Scott Rolen, or that Roy Oswalt would be better than Homer Bailey.

    I wouldn't say that my disregard for it is ignorance, I just dislike all of this junk. Do we really need to compute all of this just to figure out that a certain player is -.3 wins behind another guy? Please.

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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomaswaynem View Post
    I'm actually 25 and wouldn't say I am traditional at all. I just hate how everything is broken down into 19 different stats. FIP, FIPX, WAR, STA, AT&T, WEBN. I just don't like it. I like the eye test. I don't need advance metric stats to tell me David Wright would be better in our lineup than Scott Rolen, or that Roy Oswalt would be better than Homer Bailey.

    I wouldn't say that my disregard for it is ignorance, I just dislike all of this junk. Do we really need to compute all of this just to figure out that a certain player is -.3 wins behind another guy? Please.
    The eye test is good and all, but there are 30 teams in the MLB playing almost every night. It isn't possible to watch every team enough to get a great feel for each player's true talent level. Traditional stats tell a decent part of the story, but stats like WAR and FIP give us a way to measure our favorite players against the rest of the league. WAR isn't perfect and can be a somewhat crude measuring stick, so I agree that bickering about a 0.3 WAR difference between two players is pretty silly. Still, simply dismissing advanced metrics altogether is pretty ignorant in itself.

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    Member LeDoux's Avatar
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    Re: Reds mosst likely done with major league deals

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomaswaynem View Post
    I'm actually 25 and wouldn't say I am traditional at all. I just hate how everything is broken down into 19 different stats. FIP, FIPX, WAR, STA, AT&T, WEBN. I just don't like it. I like the eye test. I don't need advance metric stats to tell me David Wright would be better in our lineup than Scott Rolen, or that Roy Oswalt would be better than Homer Bailey.

    I wouldn't say that my disregard for it is ignorance, I just dislike all of this junk. Do we really need to compute all of this just to figure out that a certain player is -.3 wins behind another guy? Please.
    I agree. While I use advanced stats quite a bit in my research endeavors, but I don't like them to dominate my baseball. Stats can be helpful for comparisons, but over-relying on them can interfere with simply watching and enjoying the game. The stats are the shadow of the game, not the substance.

    I also think baseball stats are quite often abused. For a true statistical comparison you need to use a real statistical test (without violating any of its assumptions.) Using an alpha of .05, how can you compare Oswalt and Rolenís projected 2012? Show your work!


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