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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

Voters
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  • RHP Alejandro Chacin

    0 0%
  • RHP Drew Cisco

    5 12.82%
  • RHP Drew Hayes

    1 2.56%
  • LHP Blaine Howell

    0 0%
  • RHP Josh Judy

    5 12.82%
  • LHP Chris Manno

    0 0%
  • RHP Jonathan Perez

    0 0%
  • SS Juan Perez

    0 0%
  • RHP Dan Renken

    1 2.56%
  • OF/1B Bill Rhinehart

    0 0%
  • RHP Josh Smith

    13 33.33%
  • IF Chris Valaika

    3 7.69%
  • RHP Pedro Villarreal

    4 10.26%
  • OF Kyle Waldrop

    2 5.13%
  • 2B Ryan Wright

    5 12.82%
  • other (please list below)

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

  1. #16
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by The DARK View Post
    Dougdirt, can you give me a more detailed report on Villareal? I've been interested in him, but haven't found all that much information.

    Cisco seems like a good choice here as well. He may have had TJ surgery, but he's a polished high school arm with great command and results. He's got plenty of time to recover and could be shooting up these prospect boards as soon as he hits the mound again. That's worthy of a selection around here, for me.
    I feel like Cisco is the most underrated prospect. If he had pitched only 10 games with good results, I think he would've been in the top-20. Historically, RZ doesn't like to vote on players who haven't played yet.

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  3. #17
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm with you here. As a whole, RedsZone overrates Reds prospects. Just look at Danny Dorn for example. Some of us were furious the first couple times he wasn't protected from the rule five draft.

    It's common knowledge (among people who pay attention to this sort of thing) that Josh Judy's stuff won't play as well in MLB. He's not going to post anything close to his minor league K rate of 10.2/9IP. The minor leagues are full of guys like that.

    But like dougdirt said, just because Judy is a castoff (for lack of a better word) from a different organization doesn't necessarily mean he isn't worthy of a top-30 spot on an organizational prospect list. The fact that he was ever put on a 40-man roster likely means he's more worthy of being on the list than a lot of the guys who have already been selected. Just a couple years ago, Sean Watson made our top-10 list. David Shafer, Calvin Medlock, Ty Pelland, Josh Ravin, Cody Strait, Wirfin Obispo, etc. were selected for the top-20 despite never sniffing the Majors. Unfortunately, until people see a major drop-off in production, they're going to latch onto the idea that Judy and others might have success similar to what they had in the minors. We just have to wait it out.
    Camisa, thanks for addressing powersackers post regarding why a guy who was not worth a spot on the 40 man roster, may in fact be worth a top-30 spot in on our organizational prospect list.

    My question to you is why do you seem to infer that he will not be successful at the big level? He has had at least a 9.9 K/9 ratio for the each of the last 4 minor league seasons. His stuff has "played well" in every stop in the minor leagues. Granted, the major leagues are a different beast than the minor leagues. That being said, it's not like he is a Manno who gets by on a changeup that won't be as effective in the bigs because of a middling fastball.

    Josh Judy throws in the mid 90s with an above average slider and a developing change up. I believe he could come in next year and put up similar numbers to Ondrusek.

    Since I am voting on the 28th prospect, I think it's perfectly acceptable to vote for a guy who could easily pitch above replacement level in the bigs next year. I certainly will pick him over a guy who may have a decent swing but has been average (or below average) in AAA for the past three seasons.

    I don't know as much about Villareal. Doug likes him and I certainly consider him a prospect, but if we needed a reliever this year, I wouldn't be upset if we dealt him for a Judy-like reliever so I stand by my Judy pick here.
    Last edited by Edd Roush; 01-31-2012 at 11:16 AM.

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post

    I don't know as much about Villareal. Doug likes him and I certainly consider him a prospect, but if we needed a reliever this year, I wouldn't be upset if we dealt him for a Judy-like reliever so I stand by my Judy pick here.
    Villarreal, as a starter, can match the velocity of Judy. His breaking ball is better too. Put him in the bullpen and I would take him over Judy.

  5. #19
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Camisa, thanks for addressing powersackers post regarding why a guy who was not worth a spot on the 40 man roster, may in fact be worth a top-30 spot in on our organizational prospect list.

    My question to you is why do you seem to infer that he will not be successful at the big level? He has had at least a 9.9 K/9 ratio for the each of the last 4 minor league seasons. His stuff has "played well" in every stop in the minor leagues. Granted, the major leagues are a different beast than the minor leagues. That being said, it's not like he is a Manno who gets by on a changeup that won't be as effective in the bigs because of a middling fastball.

    Josh Judy throws in the mid 90s with an above average slider and a developing change up. I believe he could come in next year and put up similar numbers to Ondrusek.

    Since I am voting on the 28th prospect, I think it's perfectly acceptable to vote for a guy who could easily pitch above replacement level in the bigs next year. I certainly will pick him over a guy who may have a decent swing but has been average (or below average) in AAA for the past three seasons.

    I don't know as much about Villareal. Doug likes him and I certainly consider him a prospect, but if we needed a reliever this year, I wouldn't be upset if we dealt him for a Judy-like reliever so I stand by my Judy pick here.
    His delivery is funky, and Major League hitters won't have nearly as hard of a time adjusting to it. That's another of the same reasons people don't think Chris Manno will have a big Major League career. His fastball may be able to touch the mid-90s, but it averaged less than 91 MPH last year. That's not exactly blazing. In a small sample size, his K-rate in the Big Leagues was about half of what it was in the minors. I just don't think he has the ceiling his minor league numbers indicate.

  6. #20
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Villarreal, as a starter, can match the velocity of Judy. His breaking ball is better too. Put him in the bullpen and I would take him over Judy.
    If Villareal's stuff is better, why is his K rate so far behind Judy's?

  7. #21
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    His delivery is funky, and Major League hitters won't have nearly as hard of a time adjusting to it. That's another of the same reasons people don't think Chris Manno will have a big Major League career. His fastball may be able to touch the mid-90s, but it averaged less than 91 MPH last year. That's not exactly blazing. In a small sample size, his K-rate in the Big Leagues was about half of what it was in the minors. I just don't think he has the ceiling his minor league numbers indicate.
    Where did you get that stat that he averaged less than a 91 MPH fastball last year? Can this be corroborated? If this is true, I will change my next vote.

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    If Villareal's stuff is better, why is his K rate so far behind Judy's?
    Villarreal throws a TON of strikes these days. That is certainly part of it. Having not seen much of Judy and only going on Villarreal, it is also worth noting that Villarreal has to pace himself much better than Judy does, given that he is a starter. Unfortunately I don't see Villarreal enough to truly say why his strikeout rate is where its at (17% in 2011), but his stuff seems like it should generate more strikeouts.

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Where did you get that stat that he averaged less than a 91 MPH fastball last year? Can this be corroborated? If this is true, I will change my next vote.
    Pitch F/X data confirms it, but it is only for 255 pitches thrown in the Majors.

  10. #24
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #28 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Villarreal throws a TON of strikes these days. That is certainly part of it. Having not seen much of Judy and only going on Villarreal, it is also worth noting that Villarreal has to pace himself much better than Judy does, given that he is a starter. Unfortunately I don't see Villarreal enough to truly say why his strikeout rate is where its at (17% in 2011), but his stuff seems like it should generate more strikeouts.
    Well camisa and you have certainly changed my next pick. I still like Judy and think he is more worth a 40-man roster spot than others, but I now agree that Villareal is more valuable.


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