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Thread: Team payroll tied to postseason chances

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Team payroll tied to postseason chances

    This is a loosely based discussion. So take it for what it's worth. Here are the links I used for the info.

    http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/

    Last 10 seasons starting in 2002. World Series Champ in bold. First 2 teams listed in each league played for league championship, with winner listed first.

    2002
    AL
    Anaheim Angels ($62M - 15th)
    Minnesota Twins ($40M - 27th)
    Oakland A's ($39M - 28th)
    NY Yankees ($126M - 1st)

    NL
    Giants ($78M - 10th)
    Cardinals ($74M - 13th)
    Braves ($93M - 7th)
    Diamondbacks ($102M - 4th)
    Missed postseason: Red Sox (2nd in payroll), Rangers (3rd), Dodgers (5), Mets (6), Mariners (8), Indians (9)

    2003
    AL
    Yankees ($152M - 1st)
    Red Sox ($100M - 6th)
    Twins ($55M - 18th)
    A's ($50M - 23rd)

    NL
    Marlins ($49M - 25th)
    Cubs ($80M - 11th)
    Giants ($83M - 9th)
    Braves ($106M - 3rd)
    Missed postseason: Mets (2), Dodgers (4), Rangers (5), Mariners (7), Cardinals (8)

    2004
    AL
    Red Sox ($125M - 2nd)
    Yankees ($182M - 1st)
    Angels ($101M - 3rd)
    Twins ($53M - 19th)

    NL
    Cardinals ($75M - 11th)
    Astros ($74M - 12th)
    Dodgers ($89M - 7th)
    Braves ($88M - 8th)
    Missed postseason: Mets (4), Phillies (5), Cubs (6), Giants (9)

    2005
    AL
    White Sox ($75M - 13th)
    Angels ($95M - 5th)
    Red Sox ($121M - 2nd)
    Yankees ($206M - 1st)

    NL
    Astros ($76M - 12th)
    Cardinals ($93M - 6th)
    Padres ($63M - 17th)
    Braves ($85M - 10th)
    Missed postseason: Mets (3), Phillies (4), Giants (7), Mariners (8), Cubs (9)

    2006
    AL
    Tigers ($82M - 14th)
    A's ($62M - 21st)
    Yankees ($195M - 1st)
    Twins ($63M - 19th)

    NL
    Cardinals ($89M - 11th)
    Mets ($101M - 5th)
    Dodgers ($98M - 6th)
    Padres ($70M - 17th)
    Missed postseason: Red Sox (2), Angels (3), White Sox (4), Cubs (7), Astros (8), Braves (9)

    2007
    AL
    Red Sox ($143M - 2nd)
    Indians ($62M - 23rd)
    Yankees ($189M - 1st)
    Angels ($109M - 4th)

    NL
    Rockies ($54M - 25th)
    Diamondbacks ($52M - 26th)
    Cubs ($99M - 8th)
    Phillies ($89M - 13th)
    Missed postseason: Mets (3), White Sox (5), Dodgers (6), Mariners (7), Tigers (9)

    2008
    AL
    Rays ($44M - 29th)
    Red Sox ($133M - 4th)
    White Sox ($121M - 5th)
    Angels ($119M - 6th)

    NL
    Phillies ($98M - 12th)
    Dodgers ($118.5M - 7th)
    Cubs ($118M - 8th)
    Brewers ($80M - 15th)
    Missed postseason: Yankees (1), Mets (2), Tigers (3), Mariners (9)

    2009
    AL
    Yankees ($201M - 1st)
    Angels ($114M - 6th)
    Red Sox ($122M - 4th)
    Twins ($65M - 24th)

    NL
    Phillies ($113M - 7th)
    Dodgers ($100M - 9th)
    Cardinals ($88M - 13th)
    Rockies ($75M - 18th)
    Missed postseason: Mets (2), Cubs (3), Tigers (5), Astros (8)

    2010
    AL
    Rangers ($55M - 27th)
    Yankees ($206M - 1st)
    Rays ($72M - 21st)
    Twins ($97M - 11th)

    NL
    Giants ($98M - 10th)
    Phillies ($141M - 4th)
    Reds ($72M - 19th)
    Braves ($84M - 15th)
    Missed postseason: Red Sox (2), Cubs (3), Mets (5), Tigers (6), White Sox (7), Angels (8), Mariners (9)

    2011
    AL
    Rangers ($92M - 13th)
    Tigers ($105.7M - 10th)
    Yankees ($202M - 1st)
    Rays ($42M - 29th)

    NL
    Cardinals ($105M - 11th)
    Brewers ($85M - 17th)
    Phillies ($173M - 2nd)
    Diamondbacks ($53M - 25th)
    Missed postseason: Red Sox (3), Angels (4), White Sox (5), Cubs (6), Mets (7), Giants (8), Twins (9)
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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  3. #2
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Team payroll tied to postseason chances

    In the last 10 seasons, a team with a top 10 payroll won it all 4 times.
    In the last 10 seasons, of the 20 teams in the world series, only 7 of them had a top 10 payroll.
    In the last 10 seasons, of the 80 teams to make the playoffs, 39 of them had a top 10 payroll.

    Futility:
    Mariners never made the playoffs in the last 10 seasons, but had a top 10 payroll in 6 of those seasons.
    Mets had a top 10 payroll for all of those seasons, and made the playoffs once.
    Cubs had a top 11 payroll for 9 of those seasons, made the playoffs 3 times, made the league champioship game once, and for two seasons they had the third highest payroll and missed the playoffs both times.

    Efficiency:
    Red Sox had a top 5 payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 6 times and won it all twice.

    Futility or efficiency?
    Yankees had the highest payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 9 times, went to the WS twice, and won it once.
    Dodgers had a top 10 payroll in 7 of those seasons, making the playoffs 4 times, and the league championship twice, but never got to the WS.

    On the cheap
    Twins made the playoffs 6 times with payroll rankings of 27th, 18th, 19th, 19th, 24th, and 11th.
    A's made it to the playoffs 3 times while never having a payroll ranked higher than 21st.
    Cardinals made the playoffs 6 times, while posting a top 10 payroll only once in those appearances, and won it all twice.
    Last edited by Vottomatic; 02-02-2012 at 11:50 AM.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Team payroll tied to postseason chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    In the last 10 seasons, a team with a top 10 payroll won it all 4 times.
    In the last 10 seasons, of the 20 teams in the world series, only 7 of them had a top 10 payroll.
    In the last 10 seasons, of the 80 teams to make the playoffs, 39 of them had a top 10 payroll.

    Futility:
    Mariners never made the playoffs in the last 10 seasons, but had a top 10 payroll in 6 of those seasons.
    Mets had a top 10 payroll for all of those seasons, and made the playoffs once.
    Cubs had a top 11 payroll for 9 of those seasons, made the playoffs 3 times, made the league champioship game once, and for two seasons they had the third highest payroll and missed the playoffs both times.

    Efficiency:
    Red Sox had a top 5 payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 6 times and won it all twice.

    Futility or efficiency?
    Yankees had the highest payroll in all 10 seasons, made the playoffs 9 times, went to the WS twice, and won it once.
    Dodgers had a top 10 payroll in 7 of those seasons, making the playoffs 4 times, and the league championship twice, but never got to the WS.

    On the cheap
    Twins made the playoffs 6 times with payroll rankings of 27th, 18th, 19th, 19th, 24th, and 11th.
    A's made it to the playoffs 3 times while never having a payroll ranked higher than 21st.
    Cardinals made the playoffs 6 times, while posting a top 10 payroll only once in those appearances, and won it all twice.
    Look at OPPORTUNITIES though. Once the playoffs roll around its as much about who's hot and healthy as it is who's the "best team". This years Cards are a perfect example of that. I made a post on another site and don't have time to find it, copy and paste it right now but I'll try and find it. I think if I remember correctly the top 10 accounted for more than 2/3 of all the playoff teams on average.

    *Edit* Found it real quick

    2010 Payroll:
    Yankees 1st
    Phillies 4th
    Giants 10th
    Twins 11th
    Braves 15th
    Reds 19th
    Rays 21st
    Rangers 27th and got bailout from MLB to keep em afloat.

    2009 Playoffs:
    Yankees 1st
    Red Sox 4th
    Angels 6th
    Phillies 7th
    Dodgers 9th
    Cardinals 17th
    Colorado 18th
    Twins 23rd

    So whos getting the most cracks at the playoffs? Again top 10.

    2008 Playoffs:
    Boston 4th
    White Sox 5th
    Angels 6th
    Cubs 7th
    Dodgers 8th
    Phillies 13th
    Milwaukee 15th
    Tampa Bay 29th

    So one team in the bottom half of payrolls, 5 teams in the top 10

    2007 Playoffs:
    Yankees 1st
    Red Sox 2nd
    Angels 5th
    Cubs 8th
    Phillies 14th
    Indians 23rd
    Rockies 25th
    D-Backs 26th

    So once in the past 3 years (before this year) has the bottom 3rd even approached the big spending clubs in terms of number of teams in the playoffs.

    14 of 24 spots were top 10 spenders of the year.
    5 of 24 spots were in the 11-20 spenders of the year.
    5 of 24 spots were in the bottom 1/3.

    2004-2006: 14 of 24 teams were top 10 payrolls.
    2007-2009: 14 of 24 teams were top 10 payrolls.
    Last edited by Slyder; 02-03-2012 at 08:12 PM.
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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Team payroll tied to postseason chances

    The correlation is actually even more direct than the number suggest, since several top payroll teams find themselves competing for the same spot (i.e. Yankees, Red Sox or Mets-Phillies).
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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Team payroll tied to postseason chances

    I started a similiar thread here a couple years ago: HERE.

    However, I was looking at a ten year period and how salary tied in to each team's chances of making the playoffs. There clearly was a correlation between salary and making the playoffs. I think longer periods were more useful, since there are always a few teams that 'beat' the system in any given year.

    You also need to look at how a given team's payroll stacks up to the other teams in the division. The Reds can win the NL Central with an $80 million payroll, but that payroll may be one of the top payrolls in their division. However, it is presumably harder to win the NL East with a lower payroll, because that same payroll may rank far lower in that division.
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