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Thread: Buster busting on Reds

  1. #16
    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by brad1176 View Post
    I don't buy the fact that St Louis has a better rotation. Wainright's coming back from TJ, very likely to have control problems and limited innings. Carpenter got beat like a drum until he magically figured things out down the stretch, I'd say he regresses a great deal this year. Lohse and Westbrook are, well Lohse and Westbrook, average at best. Garcia is the lone pitcher that will stand out. THEN you subtract one of if not THE best pitching coach and you get a recipe for disaster.
    And you take out one of the best managers in baseball history.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    And you take out one of the best managers in baseball history.
    Yep, almost forgot about him, I was thinking too much about just the pitching side of the team.

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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Good, I don't want anyone picking us, because we all see how ridiculous the preseason projections are come the end of the year. They'll pick Yankees or Angels vs. Phils, and it will be Reds vs. Rays or something.

  5. #19
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by takealeake View Post
    Good, I don't want anyone picking us, because we all see how ridiculous the preseason projections are come the end of the year. They'll pick Yankees or Angels vs. Phils, and it will be Reds vs. Rays or something.
    I'm hoping for a Reds vs. Tigers or Reds vs. Rangers matchup personally but that is very true.

  6. #20
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by brad1176 View Post
    I don't buy the fact that St Louis has a better rotation. Wainright's coming back from TJ, very likely to have control problems and limited innings. Carpenter got beat like a drum until he magically figured things out down the stretch, I'd say he regresses a great deal this year. Lohse and Westbrook are, well Lohse and Westbrook, average at best. Garcia is the lone pitcher that will stand out. THEN you subtract one of if not THE best pitching coach and you get a recipe for disaster.
    This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.

  7. #21
    Member brad1176's Avatar
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by [deleted] View Post
    This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.
    I'm not assuming positives for us, not sure how you get that from what I posted. I agree with you on our staff too, I've said Arroyo was the worst pitcher in the majors last year. Leake and Bailey are just average at best. Yes, Cueto could regress, but it's much more likely that Carpenter will giving his age and his performance for much of last season. He somehow figured things out at the end, good for him.

    What I was getting at in the post was people are automatically assuming that the Cards have one of the best rotations and I'm not buying it based on what I said in the post.

  8. #22
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    The Reds are my team and I think they had a good offseason. But the truth is they have a lot of ? marks.
    SS- Cozart is an unproven rookie and his backups are below average
    3B- Rolen is on the decline and Francisco could be a flop
    C- Mesoraco is a rookie who struggled last year. Ramon is gone
    CF- Stubbs may or may not improve. He needs to be better
    LF- No big bat in LF
    RF- Bruce is already good, but he may never be elite
    SP- Bailey, Leake and Arroyo could all be average or worse

    Really there aren't a lot of sure things. The positive is that they have a lot of young players with talent and they added a TOR starter and a good closer. I'm looking forward to the season but I'm not shocked the Reds aren't being picked to win the division.

  9. #23
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Roush's socks View Post
    The Reds are my team and I think they had a good offseason. But the truth is they have a lot of ? marks.
    SS- Cozart is an unproven rookie and his backups are below average
    3B- Rolen is on the decline and Francisco could be a flop
    C- Mesoraco is a rookie who struggled last year. Ramon is gone
    CF- Stubbs may or may not improve. He needs to be better
    LF- No big bat in LF
    RF- Bruce is already good, but he may never be elite
    SP- Bailey, Leake and Arroyo could all be average or worse

    Really there aren't a lot of sure things. The positive is that they have a lot of young players with talent and they added a TOR starter and a good closer. I'm looking forward to the season but I'm not shocked the Reds aren't being picked to win the division.
    Points well made, but the same can be said for the Cards. Wainright is back from TJ and nobody know how he will do. Carpenter is a year older and showed a decline last year. Garcia pitched a lot of innings and might regress. Furcal did okay after his aquisition, but he is not young. Berkman may regress to his form of two years ago. Craig is recovering from injury and so on.
    Last edited by RedsfaninMT; 02-07-2012 at 09:10 PM. Reason: No message

  10. #24
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    I think the difference in the two rotations is this:

    For the Reds to have the better rotation, they need two breakthroughs (Leake and Bailey) and one COLOSSAL bounce-back (Arroyo).

    For the Cards to have the better rotation, they just need everyone to pitch how they've been pitching.

    Which seems more likely? Not to say the Reds don't have a chance, I can definitely see them taking the Central.

  11. #25
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    And I wouldn't say Carpenter declined last year, or is even showing his age yet: he threw the second most innings of his career in 2011 and posted a lot of numbers that are right up there with his best years.

  12. #26
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Code:
    Player	ERA	K/9	BB/9
    Latos	3.38	8.9	2.6
    Cueto	3.63	6.4	2.9
    Bailey	4.28	7.1	2.8
    Leake	4.42	6.4	2.4
    Arroyo	4.84	5.1	2.4
    Oswalt	3.68	6.7	2.3
    			
    Total-A	4.08	6.8	2.6
    Total-O	3.86	7.1	2.6
    			
    Waino	3.12	8.0	2.5
    Carpr	3.49	6.8	2.2
    Garcia	3.58	7.3	2.7
    Lohse	4.37	5.5	2.6
    Westbrk	4.52	5.4	3.4
    Oswalt	3.68	6.7	2.3
    			
    Total-W	3.73	6.7	2.6
    Total-O	3.60	6.9	2.4
    These numbers were derived by using ZIPS projections. I understand they are simply projections but thought they were interesting to look at.
    If neither team signs Oswalt ZIPS has the Cardinals five basic starters ERA being better than the Reds five basic starters ERA - 3.73 to 4.08. If the Reds were lucky enough to sign Oswalt and he replaced Arroyo the gap narrows - 3.73 to 3.86. If the Cardinals sign Oswalt and he replaced Westbrook the gap widens - 3.60 to 4.08.
    Quite a difference. Once again these are projections and anything can happen.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  13. #27
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Strictly from the point of view of the Reds, either they improved against him or he declined somewhat:

    In five starts against the Reds in 2010, Carpenter was 5-0 with an ERA of 1.78 and the Reds BA was .179 over 35.1 innings.

    He also had five starts against Cincinnati in 2011, but his record was 2-1, his ERA grew to 4.19 and the Reds BA grew to .237 over 34.1 innings.
    If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!

  14. #28
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Tadasimha View Post
    Strictly from the point of view of the Reds, either they improved against him or he declined somewhat:

    In five starts against the Reds in 2010, Carpenter was 5-0 with an ERA of 1.78 and the Reds BA was .179 over 35.1 innings.

    He also had five starts against Cincinnati in 2011, but his record was 2-1, his ERA grew to 4.19 and the Reds BA grew to .237 over 34.1 innings.
    This is certainly a welcome trend, but I don't think it dispels Carpenter's ability to block our way into the post-season. As an exaggerated example, he could go 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA against us next season, but if he continues to trounce the rest of the NL (to say, a 18-2 2.40 ERA tune) then he'll still have killed this team.

    Hence why the "who cares if Oswalt signs with St. Louis, we figured him out!" argument makes no sense to me.

  15. #29
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by [deleted] View Post
    This is certainly a welcome trend, but I don't think it dispels Carpenter's ability to block our way into the post-season. As an exaggerated example, he could go 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA against us next season, but if he continues to trounce the rest of the NL (to say, a 18-2 2.40 ERA tune) then he'll still have killed this team.

    Hence why the "who cares if Oswalt signs with St. Louis, we figured him out!" argument makes no sense to me.
    Carpenter pulled off similar years in 05 and 09 but his career winning percentage is .610 and career ERA is 3.76. Plus he's coming off two straight seasons of over 230 innings pitched. Last time he did that (05/06), he needed Tommy John surgery and it took him two years to get back to form - and now he's four years older.

    Oswalts W/L numbers against the NL Central in 2011: 3-2 (2 wins coming against the Cubs and Astros, plus a win and loss to the Cards); 2010: 4-3 (2 wins v. Pirates, 1 each Cubs and Brewers, losses to Cubs, Pirates and 2 to the Reds); 2009: 1-4 (a victory over the Cubs, losses to Cubs, Pirates and 2 to the Cards). I don't think he's that much of a game changer that it would put either the Reds or the Cardinals immediately to the fore front in the division.
    If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!

  16. #30
    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Re: Buster busting on Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by [deleted] View Post
    This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.
    There is a differnce when it comes to coming back from tommy john and a combination of back stiffness, mono, and carpal tunnel. I expect bronson to actually be better than Wainwright just due to the fact it generally takes two years to fully recover from tommy john and as long as bronson starts the season healthy i think he will be fine.


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