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Thread: Reds 2012 Rotation

  1. #1
    Member brad1176's Avatar
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    Reds 2012 Rotation

    With all of the Oswalt talk, I thought I would start a discussion about our rotation, as it currently stands. It doesn't appear that we will sign Oswalt, so what are your expectations for our starters? Who fills in if there are multiple injuries, as happened last year? Here's what I'm projecting:

    Latos-17 wins 3.70 ERA
    Cueto-15 wins 3.90 ERA
    Leake-12 wins 4.10 ERA
    Bailey-10 wins 4.30 ERA
    Arroyo-8 wins 5.10 ERA

    I realize I may be high on some of the win totals, but I think they are within reason, barring injury. If we have two pitchers out at one time, is it Francis and Lecure taking the starts? What happens if three of them go down at one time? It's likely given the injury history of our staff.

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  3. #2
    13 Belongs in Cooperstown Captain13's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Don't forget Aroldis as the possible 6th starter.
    What if this is as good as it gets?

  4. #3
    Member brad1176's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    I thought about him, but I just can't see him being in the rotation this year. I could most definitely be wrong though.

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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    I think if all are healthy Chapman will be in AAA working on building his inns.

    Ceuto-20 wins. 3.20 ERA- I think he is that good and will be a cy young canidate
    Latos- 15 wins 3.95 ERA- I believe he will be good but I think he struggles early with the new ball park.
    Leake- 10 wins. 4.05ERA- I think he will be good and consitant but not blow anyone away.
    Bailey- 12 wins 4.30 ERA- Bailed out by somebig offensive games he gets his wins but nothing fancy
    Arroyo- 10 wins. 4.50 ERA- I think he learned somethings about himself last year.I think he is smart enough to change somethings and contribute to this team in a good way. Still will give up way to many home runs though.

    So I got 67 wins from our starters. I think 30 wins from our bullpen will happen and we get to 97 total.
    2012 is Going To Be a Great Year!!

  6. #5
    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Cueto 20 wins 2.50 era
    Latos 17 wins 3.20 era
    Leake 17 wins 3.80 era
    Arroyo 12 wins 4.50 era
    Homer 15 wins 4.00 era

  7. #6
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    Cueto 20 wins 2.50 era
    Latos 17 wins 3.20 era
    Leake 17 wins 3.80 era
    Arroyo 12 wins 4.50 era
    Homer 15 wins 4.00 era
    Break out the champagne if this happens.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Too high on the ERAs.

    I'd say it'll look more like this:

    Cueto: 3.00
    Latos: 3.25 (he had better numbers away from Petco last year)
    Leake: 3.75 (He'll continue getting better this year)
    Bailey: 3.90 (If Dusty learns to pull him at the right time, this could be lower)
    Arroyo: 4.80 (probably can't hope for much better than this)

    With an improved, deep pen I'd expect lots of wins and lower ERA's from the rotation. Dusty won't be afraid to pull a starter and go to his pen and the pen will not give up as many runs on inherited baserunners.

  9. #8
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Latos: 16 Wins, 3.35 ERA
    Cueto: 12 Wins, 3.90 ERA
    Leake: 12 Wins, 4.00 ERA
    Bailey: 10 Wins, 4.25 ERA
    Arroyo: 8 Wins, 5.20 ERA

    I think some of these predictions are a little too rose-tinted, but our rotation (with the glaring exception of Arroyo) should be able to hold its own. Let's hope STL's breaks down a bit.

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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Cueto: 18 wins, 3.25 ERA
    Latos: 17 wins, 3.40 ERA
    Leake: 15 wins, 3.75 ERA
    Bailey: 12 wins, 3.95 ERA
    Arroyo: 10 wins, 4.40 ERA

    I think Arroyo bounces back. Bad Arroyo inflates his ERA, possibly as high as 4.50, but still is good enough for at least 10 wins.
    Bailey finally starts to put it together. Leake progresses. Latos and Cueto are who we think they are.
    Another 22 wins by the bullpen/spot starters, and we are in the playoffs.

  11. #10
    Member jhu1321's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Cueto 16 wins - 2.9
    Latos 17 wins - 3.2
    Leake 13 wins - 3.7
    Bailey 15 wins - 3.5 (he's the surprise this year)
    Arroyo 13 wins - 4.2


  12. #11
    Member alett12's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    I really don't get why everyone is down on leake. Other than cueto he ate more innings per start than anyone else in the reds rotation ecspeacily late in the season and he is projected to throw somewhere around 200 IP as long as they add 35 innings like they did last year.

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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by alett12 View Post
    I really don't get why everyone is down on leake. Other than cueto he ate more innings per start than anyone else in the reds rotation ecspeacily late in the season and he is projected to throw somewhere around 200 IP as long as they add 35 innings like they did last year.
    I guess I am skeptical of the kid. I hope he proves me wrong.

    I would love to have my crow served raw if Im wrong.
    2012 is Going To Be a Great Year!!

  14. #13
    I don't want to grow up Red Raindog's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Break out the champagne if this happens.
    I want some of that drug too

    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

  15. #14
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    I don't think 10+ wins and an ERA around 4 constitutes being "down" on Leake. He could outperform that, but I think it's a bit too optimistic to expect an ERA/FIP better than, say, 3.40 or 3.50.

  16. #15
    Member brad1176's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2012 Rotation

    I agree, I put Leake down for 12 trying to hit it in the middle. I think he could go as high as 14, but 10 is also not out of the question.


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