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Thread: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

  1. #1
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Should the Reds play Soto exclusively in LF this season at Louisville, just in case he continues to prove he's ready for the big time? If his power continues, he may be that cleanup hitter they are looking for.

    When I found out Neftali hit 30 HR's last year in the minors despite losing a month to a broken wrist, my appreciation went up alot. That is impressive.

    This question is only relevant if he sustains what he did last year and improves upon it.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Should the Reds play Soto exclusively in LF this season at Louisville, just in case he continues to prove he's ready for the big time? If his power continues, he may be that cleanup hitter they are looking for.

    When I found out Neftali hit 30 HR's last year in the minors despite losing a month to a broken wrist, my appreciation went up alot. That is impressive.

    This question is only relevant if he sustains what he did last year and improves upon it.
    I wouldn't be opposed to it. It may be a way to get him some exteded time in the big leagues before Votto leaves town. They may be able to determine if Soto is the guy to replace Votto or whether they need to spend Votto's money on a 1B if and when he leaves. If Votto sticks around, LF is probably where Soto would wind-up anyway. Probably a crowd at Louisville but Soto, Phipps and Frazier appear to be the only real "prospects" among the position players and the existence of the others shouldn't cause them concern. The others are AAAA guys like Dorn, Costanzo and Rhinehart, insurance policies like Miller, Navarro, Janish and Harris or suspects like Negron and Valiaka. I'd guess they'll move guys around a lot.

    1B Dorn/Frazier/Costanzo/Soto
    2B Valaika/Negron/Harris
    3B Frazier/Costanzo/Harris/Valaika
    SS Janish/Negron/Valaika
    C Miller/Navarro
    LF Soto/Rhinehart/Dorn
    CF Jones/Harris/Negron
    RF Phipps/Rhinehart/Dorn
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Soto needs quite a bit of offensive work still. Having him change positions for the third time in three years probably isn't the best way to go about that.

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    Member muddie's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Why would you put Soto in left? If you're serious about him possibly replacing Votto down the road, play him at first. Cincy has proven Dorn is going no where, which is over my head. Costanzo is a guy I pull for but I don't see him being 'the guy.' Frazier...maybe, but I would think somewhere else on the field. I'd plug Soto in at first and see what he does with it. Were his 30 dingers a fluke? That is also something I would like to find out. He was totally on fire at one stretch last season after returning from a wrist injury no less. With Bell in Louisville, this will be interesting to watch.

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    I would leave Soto at 1B and let him concentrate totally on his hitting rather than learning yet another new position. His hitting is what is going to get him to the show (or not) and the chances are good that 1B for the Reds will have an opening before too long. If it turns out that Soto does develop into a legitimate major league bat and Votto does stick around, then the Reds will have a very valuable trade chip on their hands.

    The Reds learned with Yonder Alonso (or should have) that it is often the best choice to keep a player at his best position and let him fully develop rather than trying to shoehorn him into a less than ideal position where he may struggle. If you can't use him at his natural position another team will be able to. That is how trades are born -- trades that help both teams.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-12-2012 at 07:02 PM.

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    Member muddie's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I would leave Soto at 1B and let him concentrate totally on his hitting rather than learning yet another new position. His hitting is what is going to get him to the show (or not) and the chances are good that 1B for the Reds will have an opening before too long. If it turns out that Soto does develop into a legitimate major league bat and Votto does stick around, then the Reds will have a very valuable trade chip on their hands.

    The Reds learned with Yonder Alonso (or should have) that it is often the best choice to keep a player at his best position and let him fully develop rather than to trying to shoehorn him into a less than ideal position where he may struggle. If you can't use him at his natural position another team will be able to. That is how trades are born -- trades that help both teams.

    Should have kept Alonso with Votto possibly gone in the near future. I liked what Alonso offered to the line up and defensively he would have been fine I believe.
    Last edited by muddie; 02-12-2012 at 06:56 PM.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by muddie View Post
    Why would you put Soto in left? If you're serious about him possibly replacing Votto down the road, play him at first. Cincy has proven Dorn is going no where, which is over my head. Costanzo is a guy I pull for but I don't see him being 'the guy.' Frazier...maybe, but I would think somewhere else on the field. I'd plug Soto in at first and see what he does with it. Were his 30 dingers a fluke? That is also something I would like to find out. He was totally on fire at one stretch last season after returning from a wrist injury no less. With Bell in Louisville, this will be interesting to watch.
    I think the main reason is that Soto needs to get some significant major league time while Votto is still here so that the team can determine if he's the replacement or whether they need to go get somebody. If Soto only plays 1B, then Votto blocks him and he gets little big league time for the team to make that determination. If he gets some PT in LF, then he can get a lot of big league ABs in LF in 2013 to give the team more info on him for when Votto does leave. It shouldn't be an issue to move him back to 1B when Votto goes but I'd hope he's had about 400 big league PAs for the Reds to get an idea about him before making the decision. That won't happen if he's only a 1B.

    The Reds really only have one every day player in the OF for the next couple of years. They have two iffy regulars in Stubbs and Heisey and an aging Ludwick. Soto could get some PAs there to help the team find out about his bat and given the shaky OF alternatives, it might not be a bad idea in its own right.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the main reason is that Soto needs to get some significant major league time while Votto is still here so that the team can determine if he's the replacement or whether they need to go get somebody. If Soto only plays 1B, then Votto blocks him and he gets little big league time for the team to make that determination. If he gets some PT in LF, then he can get a lot of big league ABs in LF in 2013 to give the team more info on him for when Votto does leave. It shouldn't be an issue to move him back to 1B when Votto goes but I'd hope he's had about 400 big league PAs for the Reds to get an idea about him before making the decision. That won't happen if he's only a 1B.

    The Reds really only have one every day player in the OF for the next couple of years. They have two iffy regulars in Stubbs and Heisey and an aging Ludwick. Soto could get some PAs there to help the team find out about his bat and given the shaky OF alternatives, it might not be a bad idea in its own right.
    Isn't Soto supposed to be as slow as Yonder (or slower).

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Isn't Soto supposed to be as slow as Yonder (or slower).
    Probably, but I still want to see some extended major league PAs before handing him 1B when Votto leaves town. Even if he tears up AAA and hits another 30 HR, I'd still want some major league exposure to help decide where to spend Votto's money if he goes. He won't get it at 1B before the decision needs to be made.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Soto has a history as being a s bit of a free swinger. I decided to take a look and see if I could find any MLB comps based on his BB% and K%. In the last 3 years, his best BB% is 6.0 and best K% is 17.7 (they've both been trending up). So I arbitrarily decided to take a look at all MLB hitters with 1000 PA in the last 3 years with a BB% south of 7% and a K% north of 17%.

    Take it for what it's worth, but I think it does a decent job of showing that he'll need to continue to get the BB% up to be a real threat. Luckily, if he does that, he's got some nice models -- including Nelson Cruz (8.1, 21.4), Carlos Gonzalez (7.8, 20.7) and (Josh Hamilton (7.2, 18.1). Of course, some similar types haven't done as well, including Alfonso Soriano and Adam Lind.

    Code:
    Name		BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	 Fld	 BsR	WAR
    Carl Crawford	6.4%	16.4%	.162	.330	.291	.340	.453	.352	119	 33.5	 7.2	13.7
    Ryan Raburn	6.6%	23.8%	.199	.327	.274	.329	.473	.345	111	 -4.7	 2.9	 4.9
    Adam Jones	5.0%	18.5%	.174	.314	.281	.326	.455	.338	105	-20.6	 8.4	 7.3
    Asdrubal Cabre	6.8%	16.0%	.138	.326	.286	.340	.424	.337	108	-26.8	 5.7	 7.6
    Marlon Byrd	5.1%	16.0%	.152	.320	.285	.334	.437	.336	101	  3.9	 0.6	 7.8
    Howie Kendrick	4.9%	17.3%	.152	.327	.284	.327	.436	.334	107	 14.3	 5.1	10.0
    Delmon Young	4.1%	16.8%	.157	.315	.284	.316	.442	.325	100	-27.0	-0.6	 1.3
    Jeff Francoeur	5.0%	16.5%	.158	.301	.273	.314	.431	.320	97	  1.6	-4.9	 3.8
    Gerardo Parra	6.6%	17.9%	.120	.338	.282	.331	.403	.316	88	 22.5	-0.3	 4.3
    Juan Uribe	6.7%	18.0%	.173	.276	.251	.306	.425	.315	94	 15.5	 0.7	 6.6
    Miguel Olivo	4.9%	28.4%	.193	.305	.246	.285	.439	.309	86	  7.0	 0.4	 6.1
    Ian Desmond	5.2%	20.1%	.125	.315	.262	.304	.387	.304	87	-17.2	 5.4	 3.2
    Clint Barmes	6.8%	18.0%	.155	.271	.242	.303	.398	.303	78	 20.3	 6.6	 5.5
    Kevin Kouzmano	4.4%	17.5%	.153	.274	.248	.291	.401	.301	87	 24.2	-0.9	 5.9
    Aaron Rowand	4.5%	22.6%	.143	.297	.244	.295	.387	.298	82	 14.3	-0.5	 3.6
    Rod Barajas	4.8%	17.7%	.193	.235	.231	.275	.424	.298	82	 -3.0	-8.1	 2.8
    Alex Gonzalez	4.4%	18.6%	.153	.276	.244	.281	.397	.294	78	 12.5	-0.9	 5.0
    Ivan Rodriguez	4.4%	18.5%	.108	.297	.252	.286	.360	.281	68	  9.0	-2.6	 2.4
    Ronny Cedeno	5.4%	20.9%	.115	.294	.241	.284	.355	.277	68	  2.9	 3.5	 2.2
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Neftali Soto in relation to Joey Votto

    Soto needs to stay at first base and just concentrate on one position and his hitting. If Soto conquers the upper levels and improves his pitch selection and recognition enough to elevate his bb% a bit and hold or lower his ko% while maintaining his slugging pct. then he is likely a legit major league slugger. He's never had a problem hitting the ball , ie contact, he tends to hit the ball hard, a bit better selectivity will improve his bb% and improve the balls he drives verses the ones he misses and complete the picture. If this is a bit of polish its the hardest part of the puzzle, probably, since its almost a case of learning against natural instinct. I'd rather Soto could devote most of his energy on the field and in practice to finishing his learning as a hitter than to working on a new position in the field. Signing Votto long term means the Reds can trade a very valuable Soto in another Latos type deal if it came to that. Not signing Votto means Soto needs to be ready to fill at least part of some very big shoes.


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