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Thread: Yorman Article/Analysis

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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Yorman Article/Analysis

    What we have here, then, is a classic mixed bag. Rodriguez clearly has some big flaws and a long way to go, but he’s also incredibly young and shows signs of life in just about every area of the game already. It’s easy to run with either of those facets—on one hand, you can say “He’s not even producing in Low-A, so how can we see him as a MLB’er?” and on the other, you can say “He didn’t fall on his face against much older players and has great raw talent, so he’s a potential superstar.”

    I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take a look at similar cases in the recent past, so I came up with a list of 25 players that were in Low-A at age 18 and had the same sort of passable but not outstanding results. Not all of them are great comparables for Rodriguez, as I’ll explain, but hopefully, going through this list in my typical exhaustive fashion will shed some light on the possibilities for a player of this (very) general profile.
    http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/...nted-analysis/
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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    I fear he's going to be another Jackson Melian, a highly rated prospect we aquired from the Yankees who ended up "peaking" at age 21 in AA

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Yorman clearly has a few things going against him. Instant wealth, youth/maturity issues, and I believe a problem at home with family (I think it was health related). It was also written that when he returned late in the year he was on a path of maturing a bit. in 67 AB's after the all star break he post this line: .299 .333 .478 .811. He's only 19, and if he repeats Dayton, he's still a young guy. If he repeats Dayton and does a level a year after that he'll be 22 at AAA.

    Melian "peaked" at 22. That's three years away for Yorman.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Yorman is a hard player for scouts to judge in person, much less by looking at numbers without actually seeing him play. This is a player that could have a lot of peaks and valleys before he even gets to the big leagues. He could have years where it looks like all the problems are in the past, and then things could turn topsy-turvy again.

    Yorman certainly had an awakening in 2011 and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Trying to break down his stats and weigh production/vs. age is sidestepping the real issue with this player. The real question that only Yorman can answer is: do you really want to play? Hopefully, after an off-season of contemplation, he has arrived at a different answer than the one he carried with him in 2011.

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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Yorman certainly had an awakening in 2011 and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Trying to break down his stats and weigh production/vs. age is sidestepping the real issue with this player. The real question that only Yorman can answer is: do you really want to play? Hopefully, after an off-season of contemplation, he has arrived at a different answer than the one he carried with him in 2011.
    Your posts on Yorman have strongly influenced how I see him, 72. I buy what you're saying about the intangibles being the make-or-break issue with him.

    Do you know if he participated in the early camp out in Arizona? From what I understand, they held it a few weeks ago, and it was for more highly valued minor leaguers.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    I do not know the answer to that. I heard that in instructional league, coming back from the season-ending shoulder bruise from early July, his attitude was much better.

    I have never said that this player could not be salvaged, but obviously, with the drop to #19 on the Baseball America list, a lot of people saw what I saw.

    Could he go to Bakersfield and be a completely different player and regain a spot in the top 10? It is possible. I never saw the great tools that others talk about, but the kid never gave himself a chance. Maybe with a different attitude, a different player emerges from the rubble of 2011.

    Long time scouts have told me that Albert (then Joey) Belle had the worst attitude in the last 30-40 years as a minor leaguer. He had years when he went AWOL, was sent home, etc. He ended up as a star. For every Belle, there were 100 guys like that who just got themselves released.

    Again, first order of business for this player that only he can decide: Does he really want to be here? I know what the answer was in 2011. I hope it is different in 2012.

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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    I heard that in instructional league, coming back from the season-ending shoulder bruise from early July, his attitude was much better.
    Thanks 72. Appreciate the info -- and I'm glad to hear YRod was at instrux and showed a better attitude. I'm still a bit concerned about his performance in winter ball, where he played a few games, got about 20 ABs, and then disappeared from the box scores.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    How many more years do we have before he has to be put on the 40 man roster and start counting his options? I know the clock is ticking

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    How many more years do we have before he has to be put on the 40 man roster and start counting his options? I know the clock is ticking
    Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.

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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.
    Really? Wow.

    Obviously we'll have this whole season to judge, and a lot can change during that time. However at this point, I could see having to protect both Sulbaran and Corcino. The others, not so much: barring a Bruce-like meteoric rise, I can't see any of them being close to sticking on a major league roster in 2013.

    Is Guillon even going to start in Dayton this year? It'll be interesting to see how he compares to Stephenson, Cisco and Cingrani.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.
    Walk me through the particulars so I understand how this works because that doesn't add up to what others have written in this thread. It was written earlier that a guy who is signed before his 18th b-day gets 5 minor league years before having to be put on the big league 40 man roster. His first minor league season was 2009 making this yr his 4th. Why doesn't he get a 5th season next yr or am I missing something?

    Thanks

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Walk me through the particulars so I understand how this works because that doesn't add up to what others have written in this thread. It was written earlier that a guy who is signed before his 18th b-day gets 5 minor league years before having to be put on the big league 40 man roster. His first minor league season was 2009 making this yr his 4th. Why doesn't he get a 5th season next yr or am I missing something?

    Thanks
    I'll try to get detailed here, so brace yourself.

    If a player is 19 years old or older when he signs his first professional contract, he must be added to the 40-man roster or subject to the rule five draft following four years as a professional. For someone 16-to-18 years old (even 18 years and 364 days), they get an additional year.

    To be clear, these do not need to be whole years of service time. Whether a player signs in April or August, it still counts as one year as a professional for the sake of determining rule five eligibility. Therefore, the earlier in the season you can sign someone to his first professional contract, the more beneficial it is since it gives a team more time to develop the player.

    To clarify a couple things, players under 19 years of age when they signed in 2008 will be eligible for the next rule five draft, which is likely to be held in December. So will players who were 19 years of age or older when they signed in 2009.

    edit:
    One interesting thing to note is that there is a slightly different method for determining which players are eligible to become six-year free agents. If a player is drafted and signed in 2012, he will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season provided he is not placed on the 40-man roster. I bring this up because a player needs six whole years of service time to become a minor league free agent, and players who are drafted and signed this year would actually be playing seven years as a professional before possibly becoming what is known as six-year free agents. However, when it comes to the rule five draft, the only things that matter are the age of the player and the date the contract was signed.
    Last edited by camisadelgolf; 02-24-2012 at 10:20 PM.

  13. #13
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'll try to get detailed here, so brace yourself.

    If a player is 19 years old or older when he signs his first professional contract, he must be added to the 40-man roster or subject to the rule five draft following four years as a professional. For someone 16-to-18 years old (even 18 years and 364 days), they get an additional year.

    To be clear, these do not need to be whole years of service time. Whether a player signs in April or August, it still counts as one year as a professional for the sake of determining rule five eligibility. Therefore, the earlier in the season you can sign someone to his first professional contract, the more beneficial it is since it gives a team more time to develop the player.

    To clarify a couple things, players under 19 years of age when they signed in 2008 will be eligible for the next rule five draft, which is likely to be held in December. So will players who were 19 years of age or older when they signed in 2009.

    edit:
    One interesting thing to note is that there is a slightly different method for determining which players are eligible to become six-year free agents. If a player is drafted and signed in 2012, he will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season provided he is not placed on the 40-man roster. I bring this up because a player needs six whole years of service time to become a minor league free agent, and players who are drafted and signed this year would actually be playing seven years as a professional before possibly becoming what is known as six-year free agents. However, when it comes to the rule five draft, the only things that matter are the age of the player and the date the contract was signed.
    Thanks for the xplanation.

    Just so I get this:

    Are you saying that even though Yorman didn't play any professional baseball during the 2008 season, it still counts as a year of minor league ball?

  14. #14
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Following this season, the Reds must decide whether to put Rodriguez on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the rule 5 draft. The same is true for Juan Duran, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Ismael Guillon, and countless others.
    Seems early for Yorman and Duran, but the Reds should have plenty of spots. Rolen, Phillips and Cairo are free agents. Marshall might be. Madson probably opts out. Jordan Smith, Chris Valaika and Kris Negron are very iffy. Probably at least one of Judy or Brackman will wash out. Paul Janish and Wilson Valdez are possible non-tenders. No shortage of spots IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Yorman Article/Analysis

    I think 3 counting this year. Because of his age when signed he gets 6 years right?
    Suck it up cupcake.


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