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Thread: Pedro Alvarez

  1. #1
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    Pedro Alvarez

    Pedro Alvarez would be a shrewd acquisition target.

    He struggled mightily last year and the Pirates' patience is reportedly wearing thin- they acquired Casey McGhee as an insurance policy.

    Leatherpants notes on ESPN Insider that his career could easily follow a similar post-hype breakout career trajectory of Alex Gordon, a guy I wanted the Reds to go after last year before he broke out. He picks him as a player poised to erupt.

    Reds are likely to have a vacancy at 3B possibly as early as this year's All-Star Break. At a minimum, Alvarez would be a good guy to push Francisco for competition as the 3B of the future. If they both work out, Alvarez could move to 1B after Votto leaves.

    I'd see if Pittsburgh would bite on Masset. If not, I'd see what else they'd give along with Alvarez (perhaps Luis Heredia or Stetson Allie?) for Homer Bailey. Then I'd sign Oswalt
    Last edited by Benihana; 02-21-2012 at 06:17 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #2
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    I would love to see Alvarez in a Cincinnati uniform. The number of people bailing on him blows my mind.

  4. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    I'm always for adding young talent, but Alvarez has a much bigger problem making contact than Gordon ever had. Alvarez is currently rocking a career K% north of 30.7%, compared to 21.5% for Gordon. For the record, Stubbs clocked in at 30.1% last year and Adam Dunn never cracked 29% as a Red. Both guys walk about 9-10% of the time, so Gordon puts the ball in play in 70% of his PA compared to 60% for Alvarez.

    Over 600 PA, that means an extra 60 balls in play for Gordon, 420 vs. 360. If Gordon put up a .300 BABIP, Alvarez would need a .350 BABIP to put up the same batting average & OBP.

    When you then see that Gordon's breakout season came on the back of a .358 BABIP (up from .254 in 2010), I think Alvarez's chances of doing something similar are extremely remote -- unless he drastically improves his strikeout rate. That's not to say he'd be a bad guy to bring aboard, just that his upside is limited.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so. Also, why would they want to deal him while his stock is so low? He was the #2 overall pick of the draft just three years ago -- no way they're looking to deal him yet. And even if they did, it wouldn't be to the Reds. Also, McGehee will play 1B not 3B for the Buccos.

  6. #5
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    Quote Originally Posted by reds1869 View Post
    I would love to see Alvarez in a Cincinnati uniform. The number of people bailing on him blows my mind.
    The number of people you could say this about is long and pretty impressive. I heard a Pirate beat or radio guy talking about Alvarez on MLB Radio the other day. The gist of the conversation was that the Pirates wanted Alvarez to head to the Arizona fall league to work on his game. Alvarez instead headed out to California to work with a personal trainer. If this is all true I would understand why the Pirates have soured on him and also would raise some huge red flags in trying to acquirer him.

  7. #6
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so. Also, why would they want to deal him while his stock is so low? He was the #2 overall pick of the draft just three years ago -- no way they're looking to deal him yet. And even if they did, it wouldn't be to the Reds. Also, McGehee will play 1B not 3B for the Buccos.
    If the Pirates traded him, wouldn't it be because deep down they don't believe he can be a good player? Maybe Alvarez is what he is, a free swinging guess hitter with a history of attitude problems and a large frame that seems to be getting larger. Sure he can turn it around, but how has holding on to prospects while trading away guys like Aramis Ramirez helped them?

    I don't think the Pirates, if they decide to trade him will care where he goes so long as they get what they want in return. To be honest, looking at his numbers, is he really better than Juan Francisco? Because I don't see it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #7
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    TRF I was just going to post don't we basically have the same guy just without as much hype in Juan Francisco? Huge power, free swinger without any idea of patience or discipline? Except Juan likely has a better attitude...

  9. #8
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so.
    Depends. If you think he's crap, then by all means keep him within your own division. For similar reasons, I'd love for Walt to ship Bronson to the Cardinals.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  10. #9
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    I'm still a believer that he can string together enough streaks to have a couple really nice seasons. I think he'll do it in a Pittsburgh uniform too.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  11. #10
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    For some reason I confused Pedro Alvarez and Pedro Feliz in my head and couldn't understand why this was even being discussed.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  12. #11
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    Re: Pedro Alvarez

    Maybe we could swap juan duran for alvarez...or a similar high upside high risk prospect for him. I would take a flier on him that way for sure. It is never a bad thing to acquire former very highly ranked prospects. While there are busts, many are the for a reason.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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