Which base running Beltran are you referring to? The one who stole 3 bases in 2010, being caught once, or the one who was 4 for 6 in 2011? And if they have Beltran running at all, whomever makes that call should immediately be fired. He isn't young anymore, and they didn't sign him to steal bases. They need his bat. You don't risk that kind of bat on the base paths. This was a point brought up on MLB radio the other day, and to a man, every one of them laughed at the caller who said he expected Beltran to steal 15+ bases this year.
You really think that less then 2 WAR difference between Fielder and Ramirez + 'distraction' about Braun's test will make Milwaukee fall as many as fifteen games in the standings? The Brewers won almost 20 more games than did the Reds in 2011, and even with Fielder leaving, their roster isn't really that different. I know you like ZiPS (I do too) so I'll use that for a second: ZiPS projects Fielder as having a wOBA about 30 points higher than Aramis next year. However, they also see Mat Gamel as having approximately the same advantage over Casey McGehee - so basically, the offense could even out. Milwaukee could easily win 95 or more games again.
We'll certainly be better with the pitching upgrades we made, but we face a big uphill battle in the Central. I think 'on paper' we're almost as good as Milwaukee and St. Louis, but the back end of our rotation keeps us from quite reaching that level.
It's not that I don't think anything of them...they just are clearly not on the same level as the players they are trying to replace. Most of my gripes with Beltran have to do with his health and age.
I mean you mention Fielder as a fat, strikeout machine but he had an OBP of .415 last year and an average of .299 (compared to Ramirez' .361 and .306) so not only does he have way more power but he also gets on base more. Neither are great fielders or base runners...but Fielder posted a higher WAR just last year than Ramirez has in his entire career.
I won't go into Beltran vs. Pujols but it's pretty clear which players are better. Missing those two is definitely going to hurt both of those teams.
Pythagorean W/L 2011
Milwaukee 90-72
St. Louis 88-74
Cincinnati 83-79
I think the Reds were closer in 2011 than the standings may have indicated.
Just two years ago we were a 91 win team with a roster that most would argue wasn't as good as the roster we're going to be fielding this year. Would you have expected us to drop more than 10 games in a year with no major changes? In that same time Milwaukee was a 77 win team. Even teams that remain exactly the same (ours pretty much did last year) can go through struggles and vary a lot from one year to the next. Expecting Milwaukee to put up 96 wins again this year just because they had one great season isn't necessarily realistic to their situation.
All three teams are similar but I believe, at this point, the Reds have the edge in offence, defence and in their bullpen with the addition of Marshall and Madson. Their starting rotation is probably the weakest of the three, but it's not that far behind IMO and shouldn't be what separates the teams.
It's not so much that I think Milwaukee or St. Louis are much worse than last year...I just don't think they'll perform to that level again and if Cinci can rebound from a bad year last year they're going to be better as well as having new additions which makes it harder on Milwaukee and St. Louis to maintain those wins too.
I think the difference between the 2010 Reds team and the 2011 Brewers team is that most of us knew our a lot of our players were outperforming their talent that year. We knew Arroyo wasn't as good as his record and ERA would indicate, and we knew he would regress. We knew Rolen couldn't keep hitting 20+ homeruns because of age and injuries, and we knew Gomes wouldn't hit .260+ again. That's why so many fans were so frustrated that the front office didn't make any moves between seasons, despite us making the playoffs.
Now, Stubbs and Bruce also had huge years that season, and it's totally possible Milwaukee has players that underperform in 2012. Marcum, for instance, showed some sluggish signs in the postseason. But I don't think the Brewers of 2011 have as many 'crash-and-burn' candidates like we did in 2010. I don't see Greinke imploding like Arroyo did, but Bronson's collapse wasn't a surprise. Teams that remain the same can certainly struggle or break through, but I think expecting them to do so without specific reasons might be unwarranted. A case can be made that Milwaukee will not win the division again because of the loss of Fielder and the additions other Central teams have made, but I think them losing 10-15 games from their record might be too much.
The Brewers could certainly win 83 games this year, no doubt. A lot can happen in a baseball season. But looking at things objectively, I don't personally see the evidence to support that at this time.
I do like our chances, and dave makes a good point with the expected W/L records based on run differentials. I think Cincinnati has the best defense and bullpen in the division, with an offense a tick below St. Louis's and a tick above Milwaukee's. I also agree we have the weakest rotation of the three, which is why I believe we face an uphill battle. I weigh starting pitching more than defense or relief pitching, and see it as the key to success.
IMO
Wainwright/Berkman/Beltran of 2012
Will be pretty damn similar in WAR to:
McClellan/Pujols/Berkman of 2011
Also, Ryan Franklin blew 11 saves in the first 6 weeks. I think Motte will be better then that. Our bullpen got a makeover at mid season, it cost us so many games in the first few months. I believe we will saves win there as well.
This is not to say that a Wainwright/Pujols/Berkman would not be better then Wainwright/Berkman/Beltran. It would be, but overall I think that the WAR generated will be at least and good with a good chance to be higher (i.e. more wins generated).
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Rasmus has a lot of talent. But for whatever reason, he has been a huge liability at the plate and in the field for a couple of years now.
I haven't "given up" on Rasmus' talent for sure, I think Toronto made a nice trade for them and it obviously ended up being a great trade for the Cardinals. But I think there is still a fair chance that Rasmus ends up being one of those many players whose talent doesn't translate while Jon Jay, not having the upside of Colby, will be able to actually reach his peak unlike Rasmus.
Rasmus is a head case with a lot of issues to resolve before he becomes a quality (or even average) MLB player. Whatever Jon Jay ends up becoming at his peak, at least he isn't a liability.
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I don't disagree with anything here per say.
You probably already know this, but when looking at WAR (win creation), it's really: Pujols-Berkman-1/2 Rasmus-McClellan (starting rotation)-1/3 Furcal-2/3Theriot versus Berkman-Beltran-Jay-Wainwright-Furcal
I think there's a good chance the total WAR will be better from the latter then the former.
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IMO:
Holliday should be better assuming he doesn't miss 35 games.
Molina should be around the same. It's hard to judge him. He made big strides pretty much every year at the plate. Was 2011 his best year? It's kind of a wait and see thing, I admit it could end up being worse, or possibly better if he can take yet another step forward at the plate. I think overall it will be about the same though.
Jon Jay's WAR should increase, if nothing else then because of increased playing time basically means increased WAR. Overall, the centerfield position should undoubtedly improve. Rasmus was just awful last year and I think there's a good chance the young Jon Jay improves a bit, he's not quite at his peak yet although I think he is close to it.
Craig's WAR will probably go down. I don't think he's as good as he showed last year.
For Freese it's all about health. I think there's a good chance he'll play more then 100 games this year unlike last year. So in that sense it should also go up, he also took a big step forward in his development the last three months of the year (including playoffs), so I am interested to see if he can become even better in that regard.
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