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Thread: Three bold predictions- 2012

  1. #46
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Phillies finish 3rd (or lower) in NL East. Pujols sets a career low in HR's. NY Yankees do not make the playoffs.

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  3. #47
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    1) Latos 4.50 ERA, 10-12 record
    2) Rolen starts 64 games exactly and retires after the season
    3) Bruce is streaky and can't hit .270
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  4. #48
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I don't know if you would call the Cards dominance in the division luck. During the time of TLR and Duncan, the Cards averaged the 3rd best ERA in baseball. That simply isn't luck.

    It's ok though, the Cards won't blow 200000000 leads this season due to a better bullpen and will still win even if Carp and Waino win less than 15 games.
    You're right, it was more than just luck ;-) (btw, just kidding)

    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #49
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You're right, it was more than just luck ;-) (btw, just kidding)

    LOL that's hilarious hahaha
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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  6. #50
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    I have a late bold prediction. Pujols will win the AL MVP and will win the AL Triple Crown. From recent quotes in interviews with him, he is still hurt over what happened in the off season. This guy plays with the biggest chip on his shoulder than any player I have seen. Everytime someone makes him angry, he performs better in the field. It's like he is always trying to prove people wrong. An angry Pujols is a player that no pitcher can get out. I fear for AL West pitchers this season.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  7. #51
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Phillies finish 3rd (or lower) in NL East. Pujols sets a career low in HR's. NY Yankees do not make the playoffs.
    Thought I'd re-visit this. I hit on 2 of 3. My predictions were all based on age catching up to the teams/players.

    It's almost hard to remember how much of a juggernaut the Phillies were going into the season. In 2011 they had won 102 games and won the East by 13 games.

    Espn had 50 analysts predict 2012 and 14 of the 50 had Phillies in World Series
    27 had Phillies winning division and 44 of 50 had them in the playoffs.

    But I suspected age (and those injuries that come with age) would take it's toll.

    Depth Chart heading into season:

    C - Ruiz Age 33
    1b - Howard 32 and coming off Achilles
    2b - Utley 33 and injury plagued
    SS - Rollins 33
    3b - Polanco 36
    LF - Pierre 34
    CF - Victorino 31
    RF - Pence 29
    SP - Hamels 28
    SP - Halladday 35
    SP - Lee 34
    SP - Blanton - 31
    SP - Worley 24

    That meant that 7 of 8 positions and 3 of 5 starters were 31 or older.

    Pujuols - This was age related also. Pujols was 32 heading into season, and all of his stats had taken a steady 3 year decline. His career low in homers was 34 and he'd just hit 37. I thought he was a good bet to go below 34. In fact he ended up at 30, and all of his numbers now demonstrate a 4 year decline.

    I expect his numbers to take a slight uptick in 2013 as he both started and ended the year in a bad slump, but after the slight uptick in 2013, the decline will resume. It's going to get ugly folks. The Cards dodged a bullet on this one.

    I was wrong on the Yanks but not by a lot. They did not clinch a playoff spot till 2 days left in season. Their age was starting to get exposed. Barring an infusion of talent 2013 will be the non playoff year.

    Their depth chart heading into 2012
    C- Martin 29
    1b - Texeria - 32
    2b - Cano 29
    SS - Jeter - 37
    3b - Rodriguez - 36
    LF - Gardner 28
    CF - Granderson - 31
    RF - Swisher - 31
    SP - Sabathia - 31
    SP - Kuroda 37
    SP - Hughes - 25
    SP - Nova -25
    SP - Garcia - 35

    Yanks were able to hold off Father Time for one last season, with Jeter having a far better year than in years previous and Granderson, Ibanez, Kuroda among others having good years. But....

    heading into 2013:
    Texeria has had 4 straight years of decline. His decline was extreme in 2012 so he may even improve a little but the trend is down
    Cano had his career year at age 30, so he'll probable decline this year
    Jeter would have declined anyway but now he also has an injury
    Rodriguez - has now had 6 straight years of decline
    Granderson - Although at a very high level, most of Grandersons numbers decined in 2012, so he'll probably start declining
    Swisher/Suzuki - Swisher is a FA. If he signs he's a candidate to start declining and the alternative (Suzuki) is 39 and a shell of his former self.

    even a lot of the replacements are old: Mariano wants to come back at age 42, Petitte may return (again) at age 40, Ibanez is 40 Andru Jones is 35.
    They have a ton of old FA's on the team. Lowe, Chavez

    If Brian Cashman really does NOT have an open checkbook available to him this year, we might see how good a GM he really is (or is not).

  8. #52
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    1. Joey Votto dominates the league and is widely considered among the top two or three players in all of baseball. Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and MVP.

    2. Zack Cozart shines as a regular, winning the Rookie of the Year in a really weak National League field, with a 245/310/425 season. Meanwhile Devin Mesoraco struggles, hitting pop ups instead of big flies. He's replaced after two ineffectual months with Dioner Navarro who plays really well.

    3. Scott Rolen hits well-- when healthy. However, he only plays 65 games. Fortunately for the Reds, both Frazier and Francisco hit well in his absence. Red 3B top 30 HR for the year, with an OPS over 800.
    Pretty close.

    1) Had Votto stayed healthy, he's have walked away with the MVP.

    2) Cozart's final numbers (.246/ .288/ .399) were close, and he should have been in the running for ROY, IMO, but I didn't see Wade Miley's season or the call-up of the wunderkiknd in Washington. I nailed the Mesoraco post, though I missed the amount of time it took.

    3) Rolen did play well when healthy (in the second half). And, between them, Frazier and Francisco were close to 800, though not quite over it. They just missed the 30 HR as well.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  9. #53
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Homer busts out for 15 Ws and a full season of health.

    NLCS comes to Cincy this season.

    Mesoraco struggles and finds himself on the short side of the platoon early.
    Not shabby. 13 Ws and a full season from Homer. Cincy one game from the NLCS. Mes struggles.

  10. #54
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not sure what qualifies as bold so I'll increase the "boldness" as I go.

    1. Ryan Ludwick hits 25 Home Runs and provides the 3rd middle of the line-up bat that the team has been missing.

    2. Homer Bailey is sidelined for the season before Memorial Day with shoulder problems.

    3. Matt Latos steps forward to become a true number 1 starter with an ERA below 3.00 with 20 Wins and 225 K's and becomes the Reds' first ever Cy Young Winner leading the Reds through the post season by outdueling Halladay twirce in the NLCS and Sabathia twice in the World Series.
    1 out of 3. Really glad I was wrong about number 2. Year early on number 3.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #55
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    1) Homer Bailey is the team's 2nd best starter behind Latos
    2) Scott Rolen plays in 120+ games
    3) Chris Heisey hits lefties better than righties
    1 of 3 for me

    1) Bailey was the 3rd best SP, settled closely behind Latos and ahead of Arroyo, way behind Cueto -- INCORRECT
    2) Rolen played in 92 games -- INCORRECT
    3) Heisey hit .274/.315/.512 vL compared to .262/.314/.365 vR -- CORRECT
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #56
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    1. Homer Bailey emerges as a consistent top 3 starter.

    2. Votto signs ltc.

    3. Chapman replaces Arroyo in the rotation by June.
    2 out of 3. I gave upon Arroyo too soon, but I should get extra points for the Votto ltc.

  13. #57
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    1. Ryan Ludwick hits 25 Home Runs and Jay Bruce hits 35 HR's but falls short of 100 rbi.

    2. Homer Bailey wins 12 games with a sub-4.00 e.r.a.

    3. Todd Frazier fills in for an injured Scott Rolen and then an injured Joey Votto and nearly wins the ROY award.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  14. #58
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    1. Arroyo bounces back. Gives the team 200 IP with around a 4.00-4.50 ERA
    2. Ludwick makes Walt look good.
    3. Cozart has a disappointing offensive season. Not Janish bad, but weak.

    4. (Not so bold) The Reds bullpen becomes a huge advantage and helps secure a division title.
    Well, I was too pessmisstic on Cozart, Glad I was wrong on that one.

    Got the others right
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #59
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    1. Ryan Ludwick hits 30 home runs.

    2. Homer Bailey has more wins than Johnny Cueto.

    3. Devin Mesoraco wins Rookie of the Year.
    So I missed on all three of my predictions. I was more bullish on Ludwick and Bailey than others at the time and both played key roles in this team. Hopefully Mes rebounds this off-season and is a key contributor in 2013.

  16. #60
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    Re: Three bold predictions- 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    So I missed on all three of my predictions. I was more bullish on Ludwick and Bailey than others at the time and both played key roles in this team. Hopefully Mes rebounds this off-season and is a key contributor in 2013.

    In my mind you got Bailey and Ludwick doing well correct, and Cueto and Mess wrong.


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