Tracking - Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Boxberger, Sappelt, Wood, Torreyes

[dougdirt]

After his unfortunate home run the other day, as of now Juan Francisco has 83 PA, the usual low walk rate, a high strikeout rate (he had one in 2012 too), a UZR rating of 0.4.

His slash line is .295/.337/.500/.837.

I post this not to compliment Francisco so much, but to compliment the Braves. As someone who has been a fan of Francisco, I think the Braves understand this player well and are using him very effectively.

His BABIP currently sits at .409. When it comes crashing back to Earth, and don't worry, it will, he is going to go back to being the .240/.280/.440 hitter that he is. Guys with 6-1 strikeout to walk ratios don't hit over the long haul.

[Kc61]

His BABIP currently sits at .409. When it comes crashing back to Earth, and don't worry, it will, he is going to go back to being the .240/.280/.440 hitter that he is. Guys with 6-1 strikeout to walk ratios don't hit over the long haul.

I know that's your view.

Francisco frequently has a high BABIP. That's because he hits the ball very hard. It obviously won't be .409, but it's likely to be quite high.

The problem with the analysis of many on Francisco is that they focus entirely on a single weakness and virtually ignore his unusual strengths. He simply mashes most RHP and over time a good organization will find a way to make effective use of that skill. Lifetime against RHP, so far, .329 OBP, .499 SLG.

Francisco's inability to hit lefties will probably always prevent him from being a complete player. But I expect to see him contributing in meaningful games for several years to come. The Braves get this and having watched their handling of this player increases my respect for the Bravos' organization.

[dougdirt]

I know that's your view.

Francisco frequently has a high BABIP. That's because he hits the ball very hard. It obviously won't be .409, but it's likely to be quite high.

The problem with the analysis of many on Francisco is that they focus entirely on a single weakness and virtually ignore his unusual strengths. He simply mashes most RHP and over time a good organization will find a way to make effective use of that skill. Lifetime against RHP, so far, .329 OBP, .499 SLG.

Francisco's inability to hit lefties will probably always prevent him from being a complete player. But I expect to see him contributing in meaningful games for several years to come. The Braves get this and having watched their handling of this player increases my respect for the Bravos' organization.

In 2011 and 2012 he had over 300 MLB PA's and a BABIP of .320. Normalize his current season to a .320 BABIP and he is sitting at .244/.289/.449.

Now, that of course is counting him against lefties and righties. But still, a guy who is striking out in 35% of his plate appearances who has one of the highest outside of the zone swinging rates in the game is going to see his BABIP come down over time to a normalish level. He is a useful player, but he isn't anything more than that.

[Kc61]

In 2011 and 2012 he had over 300 MLB PA's and a BABIP of .320. Normalize his current season to a .320 BABIP and he is sitting at .244/.289/.449.

Now, that of course is counting him against lefties and righties. But still, a guy who is striking out in 35% of his plate appearances who has one of the highest outside of the zone swinging rates in the game is going to see his BABIP come down over time to a normalish level. He is a useful player, but he isn't anything more than that.

Against right handers, in 389 plate appearances lifetime, Francisco has a .376 BABIP and a 117 OPS+. And I submit that the BABIP is not mere luck but because he hits the ball so hard. Thus a .499 RH SLG. I don't think you can "normalize" him to .320 against righties.

Whatever you may project, Francisco has pretty impressive numbers against righties so far, which is how he should be measured, because he is a platoon player.

He is compared to WMP, which is incredibly misleading, because a lefty platoon hitter is far more valuable than a righty platoon hitter. And Francisco's defense has improved, and he has that dynamite arm.

I think he's better than you do, but time will tell. If the Reds had a platoon of Francisco and Frazier at third base, I think they'd be a better team.

[dougdirt]

Last year vs RHP he had a .326 BABIP. In 2011 it was .333. In 2013 it is .471. Those are the only years in which he has had more than a handful of at bats. One of those numbers is not like the others. Even if he comes back to a .330 BABIP against righties, he still will struggle to post an OBP north of .300, which still leaves him as what I expect him to be. Useful, but not more.

[malcontent]

If the Reds had a platoon of Francisco and Frazier at third base, I think they'd be a better team.

I agree. I do think the Braves won that trade. I just don't see Hoover as anything more than middling, certainly not dominant by any stretch.

[Kc61]

Last year vs RHP he had a .326 BABIP. In 2011 it was .333. In 2013 it is .471. Those are the only years in which he has had more than a handful of at bats. One of those numbers is not like the others. Even if he comes back to a .330 BABIP against righties, he still will struggle to post an OBP north of .300, which still leaves him as what I expect him to be. Useful, but not more.

Only problem with that is that in 2013 JP has 70 PAs against righties. Lifetime he has 389 PAs against righties. So this year represents only 18% of his at bats v. RHP. His current, 2013 high BABIP doesn't have that much influence on his lifetime stats.

Even if you view this year as an outlier, JF clearly has a trend toward higher than average BABIP numbers against righties based on lifetime stats. Again, his lifetime BABIP v. righties is .376. And I've provided a view on why.

As I said earlier, I don't expect his 2013 BABIP so far to hold up, but looking at all of Francisco's career numbers against righties, .295/.337/.500/.837, I think he's making a significant contribution as a platoon player. And based on years of following this player, I think he is a very potent hitter against RHP.

[dougdirt]

Only problem with that is that in 2013 JP has 70 PAs right handed. Lifetime he has 389 PAs right handed. So this year represents only 18% of his right handed at bats. It doesn't have that much influence on his lifetime stats.

So even if you view this year as an outlier, JF clearly has a trend toward higher than average BABIP numbers right handed based on overall statistics. Again, his lifetime BABIP right handed is .376. And I've provided a view on why.

As I said earlier, I don't expect his 2013 BABIP so far to hold up, but looking at all of Francisco's career numbers right handed, .295/.337/.500/.837, I think he's making a significant contribution from that side of the plate. And based on years of following this player, I think he is a very potent hitter against RHP.

Do you think he is a .295/.340/.500 hitter against right handers moving forward?

[dougdirt]

I agree. I do think the Braves won that trade. I just don't see Hoover as anything more than middling, certainly not dominant by any stretch.

Except for that stretch that consisted of all of 2012 right?

[Kc61]

Except for that stretch that consisted of all of 2012 right?

I agree that Hoover had a better 2012 than Francisco.

But let's not exaggerate the difference -- Hoover spent more than half the season in the minor leagues and had a pretty small sample size in the majors.

As time goes on, with both firmly established now as major leaguers, we'll see how it goes.

[dougdirt]

I agree that Hoover had a better 2012 than Francisco.

But let's not exaggerate the difference -- Hoover spent more than half the season in the minor leagues and had a pretty small sample size in the majors.

As time goes on, with both firmly established now as major leaguers, we'll see how it goes.

I was merely pointing out that Hoover in fact has dominated "by a stretch" since the poster said he was "certainly not dominant by any stretch". Nothing more was being implied.

With that said, I will still take Hoover in the long run over Francisco, who I simply don't trust enough to hit every single day.

[Kc61]

Do you think he is a .295/.340/.500 hitter against right handers moving forward?

If Francisco plays consistently against RHP, and say he gets 400 PAs on average as a platoon player, I think he'll probably average out around .800 OPS against righties.

I'd guess .325 OBP and .475 SLG.

His overall OPS will probably be a bit lower because he will inevitably get some at bats against lefties, which will bring him down to, maybe, .785-790.

I could see Francisco having some much bigger years than that against righties, but I'd assume an average of about .800 v. righties because of the relatively low OBP.

Good enough to start against RHP at third base for the Braves for several years IMO.

[Kc61]

I was merely pointing out that Hoover in fact has dominated "by a stretch" since the poster said he was "certainly not dominant by any stretch". Nothing more was being implied.

With that said, I will still take Hoover in the long run over Francisco, who I simply don't trust enough to hit every single day.

I hope you are right since Hoover is a Red. I have no problem with Hoover and wouldn't begin to compare a talented relief pitcher to a talented platoon third baseman. Apples and oranges. No way for me to compare them fairly.

[dougdirt]

I hope you are right since Hoover is a Red. I have no problem with Hoover and wouldn't begin to compare a talented relief pitcher to a talented platoon third baseman. Apples and oranges. No way for me to compare them fairly.

It is a tough comparison. But for me, I will take a strong reliever over a guy who can't start. I see Hoover as a strong reliever and Francisco as a guy who can't start.

[Vottomatic]

For playing on a last place team, Wood is putting up some good numbers.

3-2, 7 starts, 46 IP, 29 hits allowed, 2.33 e.r.a., 14 BB, 34 K, .179 average against him, WHIP 0.93.

Some will argue the league hasn't seen him enough. I disagree. He's been around long enough.

I'll give him props.