Tracking - Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Boxberger, Sappelt, Wood, Torreyes

[CySeymour]

Um, what?

His career line with the Reds was .305/.371/.463/.834. I'm not saying moving him was a bad idea, because Hatteberg posted similar numbers for much cheaper, but I think you're selling Casey short.

Check out his numbers post Reds.

[cincrazy]

To say Casey was overrated is fair. To say he was never a good first baseman is absurd. He had a very productive Reds career, and was a popular player, and teammate. He put up some very good seasons, and in a few of those years he was among the top 1B in the league. To say otherwise is repainting history with your own brush.

[dougdirt]

To say Casey was overrated is fair. To say he was never a good first baseman is absurd. He had a very productive Reds career, and was a popular player, and teammate. He put up some very good seasons, and in a few of those years he was among the top 1B in the league. To say otherwise is repainting history with your own brush.

99, 00 and 04 Casey were very good. His other years, he was a below average first baseman.

[reds44]

Casey's last year with the Reds netted a .423 SLG. That is like a decent middle infielder.

The year before he slugged .534. To say he produced like a MIFer is simply wrong.

[mth123]

To say Casey was overrated is fair. To say he was never a good first baseman is absurd. He had a very productive Reds career, and was a popular player, and teammate. He put up some very good seasons, and in a few of those years he was among the top 1B in the league. To say otherwise is repainting history with your own brush.

Nobody said he was never a good first baseman. What I said was that at the time he was dealt he wasn't a good 1B and he was being paid $8 Million to put up numbers that you could get off the scrap heap (which the Reds did when they signed Hatteberg). I think moving that $8 Million deal at all was a fairly good accomplishment. Complaining about the return is the revisionist history.

OPS+ as a Red

Joey Votto 155
Ted Kluszewski 128
Tony Perez 127
Lee May 123
Hal Morris 115
Sean Casey 114
Dan Driessen 113
Nick Esasky 111
Scott Hatteberg 109
Willie Greene 106
Gordy Coleman 106

As 1B go, Casey's bat was nothing special and his best years were behind him. I think Casey's post Reds' career is proof that O'brien made a really good move to dump his contract regardless of the return.

[kaldaniels]

Nobody said he was never a good first baseman. What I said was that at the time he was dealt he wasn't a good 1B and he was being paid $8 Million to put up numbers that you could get off the scrap heap (which the Reds did when they signed Hatteberg). I think moving that $8 Million deal at all was a fairly good accomplishment. Complaining about the return is the revisionist history.

OPS+ as a Red

Joey Votto 155
Ted Kluszewski 128
Tony Perez 127
Lee May 123
Hal Morris 115
Sean Casey 114
Dan Driessen 113
Nick Esasky 111
Scott Hatteberg 109
Willie Greene 106
Gordy Coleman 106

As 1B go, Casey's bat was nothing special and his best years were behind him. I think Casey's post Reds' career is proof that O'brien made a really good move to dump his contract regardless of the return.

Post 651. I really wanted to jump in on that remark but I passed. But if we are going to deny it was ever said....

[Topcat]

The fact this thread has jumped the shark and onto such topics as Hatteburg and Casey etc tells me the Reds did very well on Latos and Marshall trades.

[757690]

OPS+ during the years 1997-2005 for a player with no signs of PED use is a rather useless stat.

Plus, it doesn't take into account Casey's speed

[mth123]

OPS+ during the years 1997-2005 for a player with no signs of PED use is a rather useless stat.

Plus, it doesn't take into account Casey's speed

PEDs or no, it was an indication of his performance in his era and his trade value was most assuredly a reflection of it. His age 26 to 28 performance had 13, 6 and 14 HR with Slugging % of .458, .362 and .408. The year before he was dealt he hit 9 HR and slugged .423. He was set to make $8 Million. Did anyone really think they were going to get a good player for him?

[757690]

PEDs or no, it was an indication of his performance in his era and his trade value was most assuredly a reflection of it. His age 26 to 28 performance had 13, 6 and 14 HR with Slugging % of .458, .362 and .408. The year before he was dealt he hit 9 HR and slugged .423. He was set to make $8 Million. Did anyone really think they were going to get a good player for him?

I agree the time was right to trade Casey, I just think he was undervalued, as were many assumed clean players from that era.

As for what the trade itself, here's my take.

First, the $8M is meaningless, imo, because Linder didn't use that money to acquire anyone else or help the team improve. He simply pocketed it, as usual.

Second, they weren't going to get anything good for Casey, but who they choose speaks volumes about O'Brian's ability to evaluate MLB talent. Dave Williams couldn't break 85 MPH with his fastball and walked around 5 batters per 9 innings. But O'Brian was impressed that he won 10 games the season before, and thought he could be fixture in the Reds rotation.

Even someone with no knowledge of advanced stats could understand that Williams wasn't an MLB pitcher. This wasn't a case of overvaluating a prospect, Williams was three year veteran, with a horrible track record. It would have been better to get no one than Williams.

This trade was a breaking point for me. I stopped following the Reds closely after this trade, because it was clear to me that they were the worst organization in baseball.

[mth123]

I agree the time was right to trade Casey, I just think he was undervalued, as were many assumed clean players from that era.

As for what the trade itself, here's my take.

First, the $8M is meaningless, imo, because Linder didn't use that money to acquire anyone else or help the team improve. He simply pocketed it, as usual.

Second, they weren't going to get anything good for Casey, but who they choose speaks volumes about O'Brian's ability to evaluate MLB talent. Dave Williams couldn't break 85 MPH with his fastball and walked around 5 batters per 9 innings. But O'Brian was impressed that he won 10 games the season before, and thought he could be fixture in the Reds rotation.

Even someone with no knowledge of advanced stats could understand that Williams wasn't an MLB pitcher. This wasn't a case of overvaluating a prospect, Williams was three year veteran, with a horrible track record. It would have been better to get no one than Williams.

This trade was a breaking point for me. I stopped following the Reds closely after this trade, because it was clear to me that they were the worst organization in baseball.

It has nothing to do with talent evaluation and everything to do with jumping when a team was dumb enough to take on that contract when similar players were available on the scrap heap. The Reds had to take Williams to even the money a bit.

Assuming the Reds had other options is the fallacy here.

[fearofpopvol1]

I agree the time was right to trade Casey, I just think he was undervalued, as were many assumed clean players from that era.

As for what the trade itself, here's my take.

First, the $8M is meaningless, imo, because Linder didn't use that money to acquire anyone else or help the team improve. He simply pocketed it, as usual.

Second, they weren't going to get anything good for Casey, but who they choose speaks volumes about O'Brian's ability to evaluate MLB talent. Dave Williams couldn't break 85 MPH with his fastball and walked around 5 batters per 9 innings. But O'Brian was impressed that he won 10 games the season before, and thought he could be fixture in the Reds rotation.

Even someone with no knowledge of advanced stats could understand that Williams wasn't an MLB pitcher. This wasn't a case of overvaluating a prospect, Williams was three year veteran, with a horrible track record. It would have been better to get no one than Williams.

This trade was a breaking point for me. I stopped following the Reds closely after this trade, because it was clear to me that they were the worst organization in baseball.

O'Brien was fired about 6 weeks after that trade. The 2006 season was a pretty darn exciting year to tune in for a variety of reasons. The Reds almost went .500 and they were in the race until September.

[757690]

It has nothing to do with talent evaluation and everything to do with jumping when a team was dumb enough to take on that contract when similar players were available on the scrap heap. The Reds had to take Williams to even the money a bit.

Assuming the Reds had other options is the fallacy here.

The facts just don't back up that assertion.

First, the Reds threw in $1M to help cover Casey's salary, so your claim that Williams was necessary to make the money makes no sense. If the Reds were willing to throw in $1M, then they surely were willing to throw in $2M and not have to take Williams if they really didn't like him.

It's very clear from the press releases, that O'Brian wanted Williams. He saw him as a way to upgrade the rotation. From the press release: "In our minds, he has the necessary profile to pitch in our ballpark," O'Brien said.

Second, Casey wasn't this washed up has-been that you make him out to be. He still had much more trade value than you're claiming.

He was coming off of this slash line: .312 .371 .423 .795 and was one year away from this slash line: .324 .381 .534 .915.

Everyone knew he was on the way down, but the general consensus was and should have been that he was going to drop from an above average 1B to an average 1B offensively. And that is what happened.

Casey put up this slash line with the Pirates: .296 .377 .408 .785 and this slash line for the rest of his career: .292 .352 .391 .743

That was so good that the Tigers were willing to trade a decent pitching prospect for him at the trading deadline, and took his salary. Not only that, but they then signed him to a $4M free agent deal in the off season.

Casey, even with his $8M contract, has much more trade value than Dave Williams at the time of the trade. He easily could have been traded to an AL team, like the Tigers, for a decent prospect.

[mth123]

The facts just don't back up that assertion.

First, the Reds threw in $1M to help cover Casey's salary, so your claim that Williams was necessary to make the money makes no sense. If the Reds were willing to throw in $1M, then they surely were willing to throw in $2M and not have to take Williams if they really didn't like him.

It's very clear from the press releases, that O'Brian wanted Williams. He saw him as a way to upgrade the rotation. From the press release: "In our minds, he has the necessary profile to pitch in our ballpark," O'Brien said.

Second, Casey wasn't this washed up has-been that you make him out to be. He still had much more trade value than you're claiming.

He was coming off of this slash line: .312 .371 .423 .795 and was one year away from this slash line: .324 .381 .534 .915.

Everyone knew he was on the way down, but the general consensus was and should have been that he was going to drop from an above average 1B to an average 1B offensively. And that is what happened.

Casey put up this slash line with the Pirates: .296 .377 .408 .785 and this slash line for the rest of his career: .292 .352 .391 .743

That was so good that the Tigers were willing to trade a decent pitching prospect for him at the trading deadline, and took his salary. Not only that, but they then signed him to a $4M free agent deal in the off season.

Casey, even with his $8M contract, has much more trade value than Dave Williams at the time of the trade. He easily could have been traded to an AL team, like the Tigers, for a decent prospect.

We'll just disagree. I think it was pretty obvious that a now in his 30s Casey had started swirling around the drain by the end of 2005 and certainly wasn't worth the cost that his contract called for. People point to 2004, and it was a good year, but it was largely a result of his HR/FB rate spiking to 13.2%. 2005 was a lot like 2001, 2002, 2003 and it was pretty apparant that 2004 was an outlier. He had to be moved to clear the dead wood. Yes, the Reds added $1 Million which means that they saved $6 Million in all. I guess I just don't see a team taking that version of Sean Casey with a $6 Million cost and giving up anything of value. They weren't going to get anything any better than Dave Williams and the rotation at the time was in need of warm bodies. I suppose they could have thrown in more money and taken a marginal AA reliever like the Pirates did, but at that point two-thirds of Casey's money for the year had already been paid and the Tigers were taking on less than $2.7 Million. I think the Reds would have needed to chip in more money to get even that. That reliever turned out to be a big zero by the way and the Tigers were rewarded with a .650 OPS the rest of the way. The Tigers were a bit desperate at the time. Their hot kid, Chris Shelton, was one of those guys who came up and put up good numbers right away and couldn't adjust as the league adjusted to him. The Tigers were in a race and it had become apparant that 1B needed help. The environment at the deadline is a lot different than in the off-season. I doubt that the Tigers would have been interested at the time Casey was dealt from the Reds.

Other than a couple of early seasons, and his 2004 outlier, those stats just don't fly at 1B unless they are real, real cheap. He couldn't run, wasn't anything to write home about as a defender and if he wasn't OPSing .850+ he just wasn't worth much. The Reds unloaded his money and replaced him with better production for a fraction of the cost. I just don't see what there is to complain about here.

[mth123]

I don't know how this all started, but we're way off topic. I'm done derailing the thread. If somebody wants to start another thread, OK, but I don't see what else there is to say about the Casey-Wiliams situation.

Sorry for derailing.