Tom Servo (05-10-2013)
Francisco frequently has a high BABIP. That's because he hits the ball very hard. It obviously won't be .409, but it's likely to be quite high.
The problem with the analysis of many on Francisco is that they focus entirely on a single weakness and virtually ignore his unusual strengths. He simply mashes most RHP and over time a good organization will find a way to make effective use of that skill. Lifetime against RHP, so far, .329 OBP, .499 SLG.
Francisco's inability to hit lefties will probably always prevent him from being a complete player. But I expect to see him contributing in meaningful games for several years to come. The Braves get this and having watched their handling of this player increases my respect for the Bravos' organization.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-10-2013 at 02:11 PM.
Now, that of course is counting him against lefties and righties. But still, a guy who is striking out in 35% of his plate appearances who has one of the highest outside of the zone swinging rates in the game is going to see his BABIP come down over time to a normalish level. He is a useful player, but he isn't anything more than that.
Whatever you may project, Francisco has pretty impressive numbers against righties so far, which is how he should be measured, because he is a platoon player.
He is compared to WMP, which is incredibly misleading, because a lefty platoon hitter is far more valuable than a righty platoon hitter. And Francisco's defense has improved, and he has that dynamite arm.
I think he's better than you do, but time will tell. If the Reds had a platoon of Francisco and Frazier at third base, I think they'd be a better team.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-10-2013 at 05:18 PM.
Always Red (05-12-2013)
Last year vs RHP he had a .326 BABIP. In 2011 it was .333. In 2013 it is .471. Those are the only years in which he has had more than a handful of at bats. One of those numbers is not like the others. Even if he comes back to a .330 BABIP against righties, he still will struggle to post an OBP north of .300, which still leaves him as what I expect him to be. Useful, but not more.
Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi
Even if you view this year as an outlier, JF clearly has a trend toward higher than average BABIP numbers against righties based on lifetime stats. Again, his lifetime BABIP v. righties is .376. And I've provided a view on why.
As I said earlier, I don't expect his 2013 BABIP so far to hold up, but looking at all of Francisco's career numbers against righties, .295/.337/.500/.837, I think he's making a significant contribution as a platoon player. And based on years of following this player, I think he is a very potent hitter against RHP.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-10-2013 at 05:40 PM.
But let's not exaggerate the difference -- Hoover spent more than half the season in the minor leagues and had a pretty small sample size in the majors.
As time goes on, with both firmly established now as major leaguers, we'll see how it goes.
With that said, I will still take Hoover in the long run over Francisco, who I simply don't trust enough to hit every single day.
I'd guess .325 OBP and .475 SLG.
His overall OPS will probably be a bit lower because he will inevitably get some at bats against lefties, which will bring him down to, maybe, .785-790.
I could see Francisco having some much bigger years than that against righties, but I'd assume an average of about .800 v. righties because of the relatively low OBP.
Good enough to start against RHP at third base for the Braves for several years IMO.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-10-2013 at 05:55 PM.
For playing on a last place team, Wood is putting up some good numbers.
3-2, 7 starts, 46 IP, 29 hits allowed, 2.33 e.r.a., 14 BB, 34 K, .179 average against him, WHIP 0.93.
Some will argue the league hasn't seen him enough. I disagree. He's been around long enough.
I'll give him props.
"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread