The 5th Starter Spot

[membengal]

Let's focus this.

I have long, LONG been a solid Homer Bailey proponent on these boards, kept advocating based on his peripherals and youth that with time and a little injury luck, he would turn the corner and be solid.

Lit up, again, today. Again. I know its the spring, but there are really no indications he has turned any corner, other than to find yet another corner for him to turn.

My patience, at least, has run thin.

Meanwhile, over in the split squad game against SD, Chapman with 5 innings of shutout ball, 5 Ks to 1 BB. A continuation of what has been a nice spring for him.

I hate, HATE the idea of Chapman in the pen. Given how much they have invested in him, I am with those that want him to start. I have been advocating for that to be in AAA, but maybe the light is on for him. The anecdotal talk from fans and pro observers is that his delivery has been much tighter this spring and the control better as a result. Is it true? Got me. And its a small sample size, but, hard not to be intrigued.

I don't want the Madson issue to derail the Reds here.

I am now firmly on board Chapman to the 5th spot, and Homer to...I guess the pen. Or dealt. Or wherever. But I think its time to turn that page from him having a spot in the rotation.

I go with Chapman.

[membengal]

I guess Jeff Francis is a viable option in the conversation too, but not one I would be happy with.

[dougdirt]

Spring. Training. Stats. Do. Not. Matter.

Aroldis Chapman hasn't throw a change up this spring. That matters.
Aroldis Chapman has thrown a pitch in the 7th inning as a starter during one game since becoming a professional. That matters.

He needs to be starting, but it shouldn't be with the Reds. At least not in April. He needs to show he can go 7 innings (something Bailey did 45% of the time he took the mound in 2011). He needs to show he can actually throw a third pitch against hitters. The Reds would be foolish to hand a job to someone because of what is likely to be 17 innings for Chapman this spring (He has 12 now, I assume he gets one more start this spring and 5 innings).

Hey, maybe I am crazy. But I will take Homer Bailey and his up and downs in his last few seasons over Chapman right now. I feel that a lot of the time, Homer Bailey is going to keep me in the game and not burn my bullpen. I don't feel that way about Chapman because well, he has never shown that ability in his life at any level.

[757690]

Spring. Training. Stats. Do. Not. Matter.

Aroldis Chapman hasn't throw a change up this spring. That matters.
Aroldis Chapman has thrown a pitch in the 7th inning as a starter during one game since becoming a professional. That matters.

He needs to be starting, but it shouldn't be with the Reds. At least not in April. He needs to show he can go 7 innings (something Bailey did 45% of the time he took the mound in 2011). He needs to show he can actually throw a third pitch against hitters. The Reds would be foolish to hand a job to someone because of what is likely to be 17 innings for Chapman this spring (He has 12 now, I assume he gets one more start this spring and 5 innings).

Hey, maybe I am crazy. But I will take Homer Bailey and his up and downs in his last few seasons over Chapman right now. I feel that a lot of the time, Homer Bailey is going to keep me in the game and not burn my bullpen. I don't feel that way about Chapman because well, he has never shown that ability in his life at any level.

I agree about Chapman, but I'd rather have Francis than Bailey as the fifth starter.

Today's game was quintessential Bailey. He got into trouble early with runners in second and third with no one out, K'd the next batter, got a sac fly and had the pitcher up. He gave up a single to the pitcher, then a two run homer to the leadoff hitter.

I don't care how great his K/BB rate is, as long as he keeps melting down like that game after a game, I don't want him in the Reds rotation.

Francis has pitched fine this spring, and looks like he's refound his previous form. I'll take his experience, knowledge and his soft stuff over Bailey's hard headedness and hard stuff anyday.

[RedlegJake]

I agree with Doug.

[dougdirt]

I don't care how great his K/BB rate is, as long as he keeps melting down like that game after a game, I don't want him in the Reds rotation.

I don't want him to be in there either if he does that game after game. But of course, he doesn't. In 2011, Bailey had an ERA under 4 in May, August, September and October. He really struggled in July, which was actually just one game where he gave up 9 runs in 4 innings on the last day of July. So outside of one game, he threw 128 innings with a 3.94 ERA. That isn't a guy who just melts down game after game after game.

[RedsManRick]

I don't want him to be in there either if he does that game after game. But of course, he doesn't. In 2011, Bailey had an ERA under 4 in May, August, September and October. He really struggled in July, which was actually just one game where he gave up 9 runs in 4 innings on the last day of July. So outside of one game, he threw 128 innings with a 3.94 ERA. That isn't a guy who just melts down game after game after game.

Confirmation bias is a powerful force.

[dougdirt]

Confirmation bias is a powerful force.

It sure is. Yet if Bailey were continuously in and out of it, he wouldn't have been nearly as good as he was over the course of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I think Bailey has his issues where he loses it mentally. But it isn't every other game or close to it.

[mth123]

I agree with Doug.

Me too.

[RedsManRick]

It sure is. Yet if Bailey were continuously in and out of it, he wouldn't have been nearly as good as he was over the course of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I think Bailey has his issues where he loses it mentally. But it isn't every other game or close to it.

Of course, this was the same story about Cueto too. I think people just forget that a 4.20 ERA isn't 3 or 4 runs in 6 or 7 innings. If you aren't an elite pitcher, you fall apart from time to time. That's just how it works. If you have a narrative of a head case, people attribute those times to that and remember it. If you don't, well, stuff happens to everybody from time to time.

[757690]

Confirmation bias is a powerful force.

So are facts.

Bailey gave up 3 runs or more in a single inning in 9 of his 22 starts last season.

Mike Leake did it 5 times in 28 starts, and even Arroyo in his terrible year last year did it 10 times in 32 starts.

Cueto allowed 3 or more runs in a game only 8 times last season in 24 starts. He allowed 3 or more runs in an inning 3 times.

No bias here, just remembering all the times it happened, because it happened all the time, much more often than with any other pitcher.

[Nasty_Boy]

Long night for this guy with the Buckeyes game and all... But I'm with Doug on this one. I'm a Homer believer and I really feel that he is close to be a very good pitcher!

[757690]

Long night for this guy with the Buckeyes game and all... But I'm with Doug on this one. I'm a Homer believer and I really feel that he is close to be a very good pitcher!

I too believe Homer is close to being a very good pitcher. Only this ain't horsehoes

[Captain Hook]

Homer's the man. He'll be nails this year.

[dougdirt]

I too believe Homer is close to being a very good pitcher. Only this ain't horsehoes

Of course Bailey was also better than Francis last season too, minus the amount of innings thrown.