Five Concerns for 2013

[mace]

They're defending division champs. Their pitching staff is loaded. They've added an all-star caliber hitter to solve the problematic leadoff spot. They've corrected the right-left imbalance in the batting order. . . . We all know why we should be optimistic about the Reds this year. But what are the issues that might hold them back? What are the five leading concerns for 2013? I'll submit these:

1. All Things Chapman. Has his mind been messed with? And is it messed-up to begin with? Will he mature into a reliable closer? As remarkable as he was for most of last year, he did have a couple stretches in which he was unwatchably wild and simply wretched. You could never be quite certain what you were going to get from Chapman. And maybe more worrisome: did the debate over his role signify a breach between the manager and general manager? Do the Reds have a divisiveness problem?

2. No Rolen. His shoulder won't be missed. Nor his back. Nor, really, his bat. But what about his presence? Todd Frazier has earned his position and his fans, but even the debunkers of intangible factors recognized what Rolen meant to the Reds the last few years. I thought the club suffered in 2011 from the absence of Orlando Cabrera. Could the departure of Rolen have a similar effect?

3. Starting Depth. Face it, the Reds were very fortunate last year that their starting pitchers were historically durable. They weren't so fortunate in the playoffs, which of course raises the question of whether Johnny Cueto is indeed A-OK; whether he can still twist and coil with confidence. And with Chapman in the bullpen, who steps into the rotation if somebody has to step out? Galarraga? Cingrani?

4. Cleanup. Was last year Ryan Ludwick's final fling? Is he really a cleanup hitter? We can only hope that spring training tells us nothing about that. But if Ludwick reverts to his previous couple years, are there solutions to the batting-order issue? Votto may be the best 3-hole hitter in the game, but is that asset largely wasted without a serious bat behind him?

5. Are there really only four concerns? There appears to be no conspicuous trouble spot beyond those. Some may be worried about Choo as a center fielder, but he was fine in right field, his arm is strong, and his speed is not a problem. I'm not too worried about it. More concerning is the sense that this team is all set. It rarely plays out that way. I'm never comfortable with overconfidence.

[TSJ55]

The 5 things I consider the most important for the Reds to make a legitimate run

1) Injury
2) If they make the playoffs, can they get the clutch hit?
3) Injury
4) Injury
5) Did I mention injury?

ETA: My concern for injury isn't due to thinking any players are china dolls. But just like Kc says, they happen.

[Kc61]

If we're listing concerns for this season, by only real concern is that the starting pitchers will perform as well as they did last year.

Not concerned about injuries, anyone can get them. But Cueto has thrown a lot of innings for a smallish pitcher; Bailey doesn't have a great track record in past years; Arroyo can be up or down in any given year (or month); and Leake had a bad 2012.

I'm not worried about Latos for whatever reason.

If the Reds get good starting pitching from these five guys, even if there are some injuries, I'm on the bandwagon. But who knows if they will?

[lidspinner]

My biggest concern is Dusty Baker.....

I have been a huge dusty hater over the past few years but I also am man enough to admit when I am wrong and dusty is one of the reasons this team has done so well, the players love him and I think they play better when they are comfortable with the manager.....

My issue is I don't think dusty has what it takes to make "in season" adjustments.....what I mean by that is if Luddy fails as a cleanup hitter or a LF'er will dusty have the sack to make the full time switch to heisey or someone else? Dusty also appears to have a issue with his pen, in my opinion he waits to long to use his pen and he sometimes is afraid to use his middle relief men.....to win it all I feel you need to trust your pen and work them hard, work them when they are needed and give them rest as the season goes on....we have guys in AAA that can help give guys a break in August and September so our main pen pitchers can get that needed rest......

While dusty excels in some areas, I feel he is so below average in the areas I mentioned above that it could hurt us...

I will say this..,..I have seen dusty change his stripes a few times in the past few years and that is the mark of a true manager...one who can grow with the game and is not afraid to evolve right there with the game....I see dusty as a manager who might be trying to evolve in a few areas I mentioned above and if he does then this team will flourish because of it, lets just hope that it all works....after all, these are minor issues and not issues that we should be cslling for his head......as little as 4 years ago we were so bad that I didn't think we'd ever crawl out of the hole, dusty in one of the reasons we have crawled out.

[RadfordVA]

The least concerns I've ever had. So I am sure everything will break wrong. Main concern I suppose would be Frazier at 3rd. If he hits like last season his glove will be fine at 3rd. If he slumps I could see an erratic fielder at 3rd getting on some peoples nerves fast. Hopefully he improves at plate and the field. I could see him struggling at plate though and going with Hannahan more and more by end of season.

[bucksfan2]

1. Health - One injury may not effect the club. But a rash of injuries could cripple any club. If the Reds can maintain reasonablly healthy throughout the entire season I don't see any reason this club doesn't win the division.
2. Rotation - Is Cueto as good as last season? Can Arroyo still be effective? Does Bailey cotinue to make that step forward? What happens when a pitcher goes on the DL?
3. Defense - The loss of Stubbs in CF and Rolen at 3b is going to hurt. The question is by how much. I think Frazier can be an offensive upgrade over Rolen and Choo is going to be an offensive upgrade over Stubbs but defense is another question.
4. Prolong Slumps - Do they go into a funk over a number of games that puts them behind the 8 ball? Think Angles at the start of last season?
5. No Astro's -Getting 18 games against one of the worst teams in the history of baseball was nice last season. They won't get the Astro's that many games this year. It will hurt everyone in the division.

[Captain13]

1. I am concerned about sophomore slumps from Frazier and Cozart.
2. Starting pitching depth.
3. Left field.
4. Reading RZ if the Reds start 0-2 or worse.
5. Who is going to replace all those strikeouts that Drew is taking to Cleveland?

[Revering4Blue]

Are there really only four concerns?

As always, The Cardinals.

Need I say more?

No Rolen.

Obviously, the Reds reached the 2010 and 2012 postseason with Rolen. But the 2011 disaster occurred with Rolen, not to imply that Rolen was solely responsible. So the extent of Rolen's "intangibles" can be argued - and often have here..ad nauseam.

However, I am not totally convinced that we have seen Rolen in a Red's uniform as an active player for the last time, especially if injuries mount during the stretch run.

We will see.

[Vottomatic]

I'm most worried about not having Drew Stubbs batting leadoff anymore. Who is going to make up all those K's?

On a serious note:
1. Injuries.
2. Ludwick

I'm not worried about pitching depth at all. Position depth a little.

[mace]

Are there really only four concerns?

As always, The Cardinals.

Yessir. There's that.

[swaisuc]

The OP is outstanding. Nails most of the wild cards for this season.

For me, Choo's defense is definitely on the list. This team relied a lot on it's defense last year and I just don't buy that it's an easy transition for him. I'm not even sold that he was very good at RF.

Does the law of averages bite us on the injury front?

Several guys exceeded expectations last year. Cozart, Frazier, Ludwick to name some. Can those guys repeat? Who is the guy this year to exceed expectations?

[Old NDN]

1.Starting pitching. I know it's only spring training, but it's LATE spring training. They've got one more tuneup before the bell rings and they have been knocked around (literally) pretty often.

2. Ludwick: Can he repeat back to back good seasons?

3. Frazier: Was he a one-yr. wonder?

4. Dusty: Can the Reds survive his odd lineups and questionable decision- making?

5. How many dollar hot dog nights they gonna have? ( Just kidding.)

[dougdirt]

Starting pitching. I know it's only spring training, but it's LATE spring training. They've got one more tuneup before the bell rings and they have been knocked around (literally) pretty often.

Thin air in Arizona. The breaking ball doesn't break like it does here. The ball flies more than it does here. Not worried about guys who have had success.

[Old NDN]

Thin air in Arizona. The breaking ball doesn't break like it does here. The ball flies more than it does here. Not worried about guys who have had success.

Good point. But what about other teams' pitchers? I haven't noticed such a difference...or maybe it's because I tend to pay more attention to the Reds.

[Caveat Emperor]

1. Injuries / Depth

2. Underperformance from Frazier, Ludwick and Bailey

3. Weak Bench

4. Choo in CF

5. Mike Leake pitching every 5th day