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Thread: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

  1. #1
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    Estimate: 90 Ws

    Welcome to Gonelong's 11th annual Reds Win prediction thread. The history of the prediction threads are at the end of this post. For the 3rd time in 10 seasons tORG overestimated the Reds win total by double digits (+ 10.1).

    Hopefully the Sundeck will once again organize a thread and take up this friendly challenge from the ORG. For two years running tORG got "SunDecked" in this challenge so congratulations is owed (again) to all the SunDeck members who participated. tORG and Sundeck are now tied 2-2 in the head-to-head challenge with the SunDeck looking to pull ahead this season. When someone sets up a Sundeck Thread, send me a PM and I'll link it from here for historical purposes.

    As always, the prediction thread request is simple.

    1. Give a number of Wins you project for the Reds 2011 season.
    2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope. (Please, no 162-0 "predictions")
    3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction. I'll not honor any changes in you guestimate, too much work.
    4. Place your Number of expected wins at the beginning of the post and then any commentary below. This makes it easier to go back and count.

    When I return from opening day I'll compute the average guestimate for tORG.

    My son is 8 this year and is really catching Reds fever. He has been asking about going down to more games so I suspect I'll be at the ballyard a few more times than I have been in the past 5-10 season.

    My prediction for the Reds is that they will win 90 games this season.

    Go Reds!

    GL

    Code:
    Old Red Guard
    YR RZ   Act  Ptgh Delta
    -- --   ----  ---- -----
    11 89.1,  79,  83 (+ 10.1)
    10 83.3,  91,  92 (-  7.7)
    09 79.0,  78,  76 (+  1.0)
    08 81.6,  74,  72 (+  7.6)
    07 81.4,  72,  75 (+  9.2)
    06 76.7,  80,  76 (-  3.3)
    05 84.7,  73,  75 (+ 11.7)
    04 76.8,  76,  67 (+  0.8)
    03 87.9,  69,  63 (+ 18.9)
    02 79.7,  75,  75 (+  4.7)       
     
    Sundeck
    YR RZ   Act   Ptgh Delta
    -- --   ----  ---- -----
    11 88.6,  79,  83 (+  9.6)
    10 84.6,  91,  92 (-  6.4)
    09 82.7,  78,  76 (+  4.7)
    08 85.1,  74,  72 (+ 11.1)

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  3. #2
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    91 wins.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  4. #3
    Yay!
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    88
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    89 wins
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    86 wins....
    __________________
    “This one was a perfect one. I don’t know if I can find a better one, better timing. He [Price] really said some great things there. It really encouraged us to go back and do what we do. … I didn’t know he could speak like that.” Brayan Pena 5/21/14

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    78

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    Member wally post's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    87 wins.

    I hope my guess falls short!

  9. #8
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    91 Wins
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #9
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    87
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  11. #10
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    93 wins
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  12. #11
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    90

  13. #12
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    85
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  14. #13
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    88 wins.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

  15. #14
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    86
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  16. #15
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 - Gonelong's 11th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

    79 Wins
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com


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