Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

[wolfboy]

Because Arroyo has a track record of being a much better pitcher than Bailey.

It's fine to argue that you expect Bailey to be better moving forward, but Bailey's doing nothing to aid people who want to make that argument. Based on their first starts of the season, the guy who limited BBs and HRs was Arroyo. Bailey was wild and got hit hard.

Since 2007 when Bailey came into the league, Arroyo has a WAR of 7 to Bailey's 4.8. If you compare them side by side since 2009, which was the first year Bailey logged at least 100 innings, Bailey has a WAR of 4.7 and Arroyo has a WAR of 2. There's obviously room for disagreement, but I'm going with Bailey on both track record and future expectations.

[Homer Bailey]

Since 2007 when Bailey came into the league, Arroyo has a WAR of 7 to Bailey's 4.8. If you compare them side by side since 2009, which was the first year Bailey logged at least 100 innings, Bailey has a WAR of 4.7 and Arroyo has a WAR of 2. There's obviously room for disagreement, but I'm going with Bailey on both track record and future expectations.

Total agreement from me.

[Patrick Bateman]

Are you saying that peripherals correctly predict a pitchers future ERA 99% of the time? It only misses in one of every one hundred pitchers? I find that very hard to believe.

I think you are right to question peripherals, there are plenty of cases where a guy does not perform to the level of his peripherals for one reason or another (ie. Jeremy Bonderman).

The problem that I currently have in this thread are those (not you) that keep saying things like "periperhals did not happen, they are excuses, unlike ERA which did actually happen." It can be very frustrating to deal with posts like these that don't even comprehend what is going on to put down Bailey. The peripherals have happened and are evidence of past events. And as Doug pointed too, are a reasonable predictor of future (and present) ability.

As far as Bailey is concerned, because of his various ailments which have limited his innings, his sample size is certainly not to the point that proves that he is going to be one of those guys that underperforms his peripherals. There are many arguments that say book on Bailey is that he starts to pitch worse when there are guys on base, although that appears to be true, there are plenty of good pitchers that have gone through similar sample sizes where the same could be said. It really could just be coindence, and the fact that it fits the mold that some people have on Bailey because it fits their preconceived notions of the type of pitcher he is, does not necessarily mean that it's true.

There is a chance that it is, but (maybe not 99% of the time) the peripherals are likely right and do point towards him being roughly a league average pitcher if healthy. I'm on record as moving Arroyo to the pen in favour of Chapman.

[Captain Hook]

I think if you actually looked at the numbers that Jake Westbrook's career numbers compare favorably to Bailey's. Just sayin.' I would rather have Bailey at this point but what you said is in fact wrong.

At some point Bailey has to show that he is as good as his defenders say he is. We are trying to win the division, sometimes good players ride the pine in those situations. Bailey may find this out sooner rather than later.

Bum

You'd be right if it was 2008.Right now?Not so much.Try looking at the last three years.Not really the point though.

[Patrick Bateman]

I think if you actually looked at the numbers that Jake Westbrook's career numbers compare favorably to Bailey's. Just sayin.' I would rather have Bailey at this point but what you said is in fact wrong.

At some point Bailey has to show that he is as good as his defenders say he is. We are trying to win the division, sometimes good players ride the pine in those situations. Bailey may find this out sooner rather than later.

Bum

Did you watch Jake Westbrook last night?

I would have trouble you would be defending him after watching him last night (or looking at last year's stats). That guy is a ticking time bomb of suck.

[M2]

Since 2007 when Bailey came into the league, Arroyo has a WAR of 7 to Bailey's 4.8. If you compare them side by side since 2009, which was the first year Bailey logged at least 100 innings, Bailey has a WAR of 4.7 and Arroyo has a WAR of 2. There's obviously room for disagreement, but I'm going with Bailey on both track record and future expectations.

Arroyo has four seasons in a Reds uniform of 200+ innings and an ERA+ of better than 100. Bailey has none and none. What you're doing here is using proving poorly assembled statistics can be used to argue for absurdity.

And which WAR are you using? On baseball-reference, Bailey's 2009-11 WAR is 1.4 while Arroyo's is 3.8. Ultimately it doesn't matter because Arroyo's 2009 and 2010 seasons dwarf anything Bailey has done during his lackluster time in the majors.

[Kc61]

Arroyo has four seasons in a Reds uniform of 200+ innings and an ERA+ of better than 100. Bailey has none and none. What you're doing here is using proving poorly assembled statistics can be used to argue for absurdity.

And which WAR are you using? On baseball-reference, Bailey's 2009-11 WAR is 1.4 while Arroyo's is 3.8. Ultimately it doesn't matter because Arroyo's 2009 and 2010 seasons dwarf anything Bailey has done during his lackluster time in the majors.

The Arroyo/Bailey debate is unrealistic. Arroyo has one thing Homer lacks. A big contract with a couple years left on it. He's not tradeable. He is staying.

Homer is the pitcher "in play" because he is not weighed down by a big contract.

Arroyo has the more accomplished career. Homer has youth and better stuff now on his side. But it doesn't matter, the contract makes all the difference.

The real question is Homer v. Chapman. I have always wanted Chapman in the major league rotation. That is the move that will be made if Homer doesn't improve.

And I think the move will be made because, as somebody put it earlier, Homer is a "stuff" pitcher who doesn't seem to have the stuff right now to be a good 1-3 starter and maybe not even a "4" on a very good team.

[Caveat Emperor]

Better get him out of Cincinnati quick before Walt & Bob decide to give him a contract extension (seeing how they're just handing 'em out these days).

[Captain Hook]

Arroyo has four seasons in a Reds uniform of 200+ innings and an ERA+ of better than 100. Bailey has none and none. What you're doing here is using proving poorly assembled statistics can be used to argue for absurdity.

And which WAR are you using? On baseball-reference, Bailey's 2009-11 WAR is 1.4 while Arroyo's is 3.8. Ultimately it doesn't matter because Arroyo's 2009 and 2010 seasons dwarf anything Bailey has done during his lackluster time in the majors.

It's basically "is there anything left in the tank" vs. "will he ever figure it out" when deciding between Bronson and Homer.Numbers only tell half the story.At this point I think there's a better chance Bailey figures it out.

[wolfboy]

Arroyo has four seasons in a Reds uniform of 200+ innings and an ERA+ of better than 100. Bailey has none and none. What you're doing here is using proving poorly assembled statistics can be used to argue for absurdity.

And which WAR are you using? On baseball-reference, Bailey's 2009-11 WAR is 1.4 while Arroyo's is 3.8. Ultimately it doesn't matter because Arroyo's 2009 and 2010 seasons dwarf anything Bailey has done during his lackluster time in the majors.

I use fangraphs.com, i.e., I'm not pulling this out of my rear end. I said in my post that there's room for disagreement here. That's me being respectful of your argument, even if I don't agree. I think it's fair of me to ask the same in return. Wouldn't you agree?

[wolfboy]

Just a few short minutes ago, I received an email from City Cellars (great place BTW) with the following subject:

Immediate Clearance on ALL Homer Bailey Chardonnay!!!

I had to chuckle. I wonder if they're making room for the Aroldis Chapman Merlot?

[Captain Hook]

The Arroyo/Bailey debate is unrealistic. Arroyo has one thing Homer lacks. A big contract with a couple years left on it. He's not tradeable. He is staying.

Homer is the pitcher "in play" because he is not weighed down by a big contract.

Arroyo has the more accomplished career. Homer has youth and better stuff now on his side. But it doesn't matter, the contract makes all the difference.

The real question is Homer v. Chapman. I have always wanted Chapman in the major league rotation. That is the move that will be made if Homer doesn't improve.

And I think the move will be made because, as somebody put it earlier, Homer is a "stuff" pitcher who doesn't seem to have the stuff right now to be a good 1-3 starter and maybe not even a "4" on a very good team.

The Reds seem serious about winning.I don't think it's unrealistic that they let the better pitcher stay in the rotation. I know that in the past maybe the team would've handled things the way your're suggesting but it seem things are different these days.

[bucksfan2]

I think you are right to question peripherals, there are plenty of cases where a guy does not perform to the level of his peripherals for one reason or another (ie. Jeremy Bonderman).

The problem that I currently have in this thread are those (not you) that keep saying things like "periperhals did not happen, they are excuses, unlike ERA which did actually happen." It can be very frustrating to deal with posts like these that don't even comprehend what is going on to put down Bailey. The peripherals have happened and are evidence of past events. And as Doug pointed too, are a reasonable predictor of future (and present) ability.

As far as Bailey is concerned, because of his various ailments which have limited his innings, his sample size is certainly not to the point that proves that he is going to be one of those guys that underperforms his peripherals. There are many arguments that say book on Bailey is that he starts to pitch worse when there are guys on base, although that appears to be true, there are plenty of good pitchers that have gone through similar sample sizes where the same could be said. It really could just be coindence, and the fact that it fits the mold that some people have on Bailey because it fits their preconceived notions of the type of pitcher he is, does not necessarily mean that it's true.

There is a chance that it is, but (maybe not 99% of the time) the peripherals are likely right and do point towards him being roughly a league average pitcher if healthy. I'm on record as moving Arroyo to the pen in favour of Chapman.

The problem I have with peripherals is that they are just that peripherals. To me it also comes down to the macro vs the micro. They try to explain why the production isn't what it should be. But it looks at things in the macro when a lot of the issues happen in the micro.

Homer tends to lose focus or lets a mistake compound upon itself. If you going to use peripherals as a reason why a player is better than his numbers say then you also have to be ready to admit the limitations of those peripherals as well as aspects of that players game that are lacking.

[fearofpopvol1]

At best. Maybe he can start down the Matt Belisle career path and be of worth as an MLB pitcher.

Wow, interesting. At best Homer is a marginal 5th starter? What is Arroyo then? And Leake? What is Chapman right now?

[Patrick Bateman]

The problem I have with peripherals is that they are just that peripherals. To me it also comes down to the macro vs the micro. They try to explain why the production isn't what it should be. But it looks at things in the macro when a lot of the issues happen in the micro.

Homer tends to lose focus or lets a mistake compound upon itself. If you going to use peripherals as a reason why a player is better than his numbers say then you also have to be ready to admit the limitations of those peripherals as well as aspects of that players game that are lacking.

They are all numbers.
They are all types of production.
They aren't saying what should be.
They all tell a story about what actually happened.

The difference is interpreting which one tells the most appropriate overall narrative about a player's current ability.